1、 Trend analysis
As shown in the above figure, copper prices rose first and then fell this week. As of this weekend, the spot copper quotation is 79100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.09% from 79970 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, an increase of 7.14% from the beginning of the year, and a year-on-year increase of 7.81%.
Copper weekly fluctuation chart
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Shengyi Society, in the past three months, copper prices have fallen 3 times and risen 8 times, with a slight decline this week.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory fluctuated narrowly, with 211875 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, down 0.24% from the beginning of the month.
Macro wise: US President Trump announced on Wednesday that he will impose a 10% benchmark tariff on all imported goods, as the escalation of the trade war has boosted risk aversion and put pressure on the copper market to sell funds.
Supply side: The global copper mine expansion cycle is coming to an end, with scarce new projects and extreme weather shocks. The growth rate of mineral resources (2.2%) is significantly lower than that of refined copper consumption (2.9%); The processing fee for copper concentrate continues to be under pressure (domestic rough refining fee of -24.32 USD/ton, long order processing fee of 21.3 USD/ton), and the operating rate of Chinese smelters has dropped to the critical value of 80%. The pressure of production reduction has forced the expansion of spot premium.
On the demand side: China’s power grid investment increased by 13%, and the US manufacturing industry needs to restructure the power system (copper consumption may increase from 1.8 million tons/year to 2.5 million tons/year); The copper consumption of a single AI server has increased by 30% compared to traditional models, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased, coupled with the expansion of photovoltaic/wind power installations. Despite the rebound in domestic demand and the narrowing decline in real estate prices boosting the market, the implementation of US tariffs has driven up risk aversion and dominated the market.
In summary, the tension in the copper mining sector continues, but the current market is more concerned about whether terminal demand has improved. It is a fact that the peak season of Gold Three is not prosperous, while the consumption prospects of Silver Four are questionable. Coupled with the increase in arrivals in some regions, the depletion of domestic refined copper social inventory has been suspended, the increase in regenerated smelting production, and the high production schedule in April, the supply pressure has become apparent. In addition, weak market transactions, insufficient replenishment during the Qingming Festival holiday, and increased pressure on copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate at high levels.