1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash first fell and then rose in February. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1494 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1498 yuan/ton. The price increased by 5 yuan/ton during the month, with an overall increase of 0.27%. On February 28th, the Business Society’s light soda ash index was 76.82, up 1.95 points from yesterday, a decrease of 59.38% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 21.65% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for soda ash this month first fell and then rose. The utilization rate of soda ash production capacity remained at a high level during the month, and the market supply was sufficient. The sales pressure of spot soda ash factories was high, while downstream glass fluctuated narrowly and mainly consumed inventory, resulting in limited demand for soda ash and overall weak soda ash prices. At the end of the month, affected by the news of soda ash maintenance, the market supply expectation decreased, and the intention of factories to rise increased, resulting in a strong increase in soda ash prices.

As of February 28, 2025, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is around 1480-1550 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price of light soda ash in Central China is around 1400-1500 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price of light soda ash in North China is around 1480-1570 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of glass has fluctuated and risen this month. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 16.20 yuan/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 16.40 yuan/square meter, an increase of 1.23%. The capacity utilization rate of the glass market has decreased, and the spot market is fluctuating at a high level. Downstream market entry follows suit according to demand, and the trading atmosphere in the market is still acceptable. The glass inventory has increased, and the price market is consolidating.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, the price comparison index of Shengyi Society’s soda ash and glass products on February 28th was 81.65, an increase of 4.69 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.34% from the highest point of 112.37 points during the cycle (October 6, 2023), and an increase of 10.79% from the lowest point of 73.70 points on February 16, 2025. (Note: Cycle refers to January 1, 2012 to present)

Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, there are maintenance plans for some domestic soda ash plants, and the expected capacity utilization rate is decreasing. The mentality of spot soda ash plants is optimistic. Recently, the price of light soda ash has risen strongly, and the overall demand for soda ash in the downstream is limited. The supply and demand game in the market is expected to cause fluctuations in soda ash prices in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.