Ethylene glycol prices rise in January
The price of ethylene glycol will rise in January 2025. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4735 yuan/ton, an increase of 1% compared to the average price of 4688.33 yuan/ton on January 1st.
As the Spring Festival approaches, spot contract traders have weak trading, and receiving traders are cautious and afraid of high prices. They do not receive many goods, and market trading is average. The basis quotation range for this week’s contract is+21 to+24, the basis quotation range for February is+25 to+28, and the basis quotation range for March is+42 to+45.
On January 20th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4300 to 4360 yuan/ton, including taxes.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, the negotiated price for shipping in February was 547-550 US dollars/ton. On January 15th, the landed price in China was 552 US dollars/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was 553 US dollars/ton.
Recent Overview of Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals
On the domestic supply side, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol remained at around 70%, and Yulin Chemical in Shaanxi stopped production in mid month to replace catalysts, resulting in a slight decline in domestic supply compared to the previous month.
Overseas, a 700000 ton facility in Saudi Arabia has recently shut down and is expected to restart in February;
Domestic installation dynamics: Fude Energy’s 500000 ton production capacity was originally planned to shut down in January, but was postponed to February; Gulei Petrochemical plans to shut down for maintenance for one month starting from February 25th, with a production capacity of 700000 tons; Shanghai Petrochemical’s 2 # 38000 ton production capacity plan will restart in March April, while Zhenhai Refining’s 800000 ton production capacity restart will continue to be postponed; A new 600000 ton synthetic gas plant in Sichuan has started commissioning and operation this week.
On the demand side: The downstream polyester load has slightly fallen from a high level, mainly due to the decrease in terminal weaving operating load. The overall demand side is expected to weaken near the Spring Festival.
In terms of inventory: As of January 20th, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China was 495900 tons, which is 397300 tons higher than the inventory on December 30th, 2024, with a total inventory of 98600 tons.
Reasons for the recent ethylene glycol market trend
Recently, international crude oil prices have strengthened, and cost side support has also increased. However, in January, overseas ethylene glycol was concentrated in ports, which to some extent suppressed the favorable cost side.
Recent ethylene glycol market forecast
Downstream polyester demand is expected to decline quarterly, with a clear weakening trend on the demand side. On the supply side, overseas supply may be affected by equipment maintenance factors, resulting in a decline. Domestic supply elasticity is relatively high. It is expected that there will be weak upward momentum in the short term, with a high probability of sideways fluctuations.
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