According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 13 to January 20, 2025, the toluene market first rose and then fell, with an overall upward trend. On January 13th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6300 yuan/ton, and on January 20th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6820 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.25%. The overall trend of the toluene market this week is upward, and the spot market trading has significantly improved compared to the previous period. This week, the strong performance of crude oil has led to an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market. The overall supply in Shandong region is tight, and the procurement of the oil blending industry is good, which has boosted the mentality of refineries. The factory quotation has been raised multiple times this week. As market purchasing intentions gradually declined, the toluene market experienced a correction over the weekend.

Cost aspect: During this cycle, crude oil prices have risen significantly. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction agreement has been extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries still have compensatory production cuts. The United States has increased sanctions on Russia, and there are strong concerns about supply shortages. The supply side of crude oil is supportive, and crude oil market prices have risen significantly. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, and the arrival of winter cold waves in Europe and America is expected to further boost fuel demand, which is good news for the international oil market. Overall, the rate of change in crude oil during the cycle is continuously expanding in a positive direction. As of January 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $77.39 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $80.79 per barrel.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation first rose and then fell. Currently, the company is operating normally, the production of equipment is stable, and the products are mostly for personal use, with stable production and sales. As of January 20th, East China Company quoted 6700 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6900 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6650-6700 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6900 yuan/ton.

On the demand side, the external market for xylene has slightly rebounded, and demand support is still acceptable

On January 20th, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company was temporarily stable, and the current execution price is 7300 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units is stable, and sales are normal. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of January 17th, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were 873-875 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 898-900 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Market forecast: The recent stable to strong trend of crude oil will provide a certain boost to the toluene market. The demand side has performed relatively well recently, and the Shandong region has performed well recently. However, with the downstream procurement intention coming to an end, there is currently a lack of market buying potential. Recently, the inventory of ports in East China has been relatively high on the supply side, and it is expected that there will be some room for downward adjustment in the toluene market in the short term.