Price trend
The year 2024 has come to a successful end. Looking at the development of the titanium dioxide market this year, according to data monitoring by Shengyi Society, the overall market price of titanium dioxide will decline in 2024. At the beginning of the year, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide was 16483.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the average price was 14900 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 9.61% during the year.
Review of the Titanium Dioxide Market Situation
Product Market Trends
From the perspective of market development in 2024, the titanium dioxide market shows a trend of first rising and then falling. In the first quarter, the inventory of manufacturers was low, and the prices of upstream titanium concentrate and sulfuric acid rose, resulting in price increases. In the second quarter, the titanium dioxide market was weak and declining, resulting in a price reduction. In the third quarter, both the supply and demand sides remained deadlocked and watched, with little fluctuation in market prices. In the fourth quarter, as we entered the off-season, the market saw an increase in low-priced goods, and the price of titanium dioxide continued to decline.
In the first quarter, with low inventory in January and February, Longqi led a letter to raise the price of titanium dioxide. In March, the prices of upstream titanium concentrate and sulfuric acid increased, and the cost pressure price of titanium dioxide continued to rise. The cumulative increase from January to March is 4.75%. As of the end of March, domestic prices for rutile titanium dioxide ranged from 16800 to 18300 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 15500 yuan/ton.
In the second quarter, the titanium dioxide market was weak in April. The prices of titanium concentrate and sulfuric acid fell from May to June, and the support for titanium dioxide weakened. In addition, the continued weak demand has put significant pressure on the shipment of titanium dioxide, leading to a decline in market prices. The cumulative decline from April to June was 8.2%. As of the end of June, domestic prices for rutile titanium dioxide ranged from 15300 to 16200 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15300 yuan/ton.
In the third quarter, from July to September, the overall titanium dioxide market remained stable, with both supply and demand sides in a stalemate and observing, and market price fluctuations were not significant. The cumulative decline from 7-9 is 0.53%. As of the end of September, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid method pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 15000-16300 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14200-14500 yuan/ton.
In the fourth quarter, the situation of new orders in October was not good, and the titanium dioxide market is about to enter the off-season. Traders have more flexible transactions, and the market has increased low-priced supply. In November, nearly 20 companies reduced production and stopped operations to reduce inventory and cost pressures, in response to the current low demand in the market. The market demand in December still performed poorly, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment and a decline in prices. The cumulative decline from 10 to 12 is 5.1%. As of the end of December, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide is mostly between 14000-15700 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 13000-13200 yuan/ton.
Current situation of titanium dioxide in 2024 and expectations for 2025
Import and export aspects
According to customs data, the import volume of titanium dioxide in China in November 2024 was 6700.87 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 27.66% and a month on month increase of 3.94%; From January to November 2024, China imported a total of about 84700 tons of titanium dioxide, a year-on-year increase of 15.51% compared to last year, and the import volume increased by about 11400 tons.
According to customs data, China’s titanium dioxide exports in November 2024 were 149300 tons, a decrease of 3.23% compared to the previous month and an increase of 19.54% compared to the same period last year; From January to November 2024, China’s cumulative export of titanium dioxide was about 1.7433 million tons, an increase of 16.35% compared to the same period last year, and the export volume increased by about 245000 tons. In 2023, the export volume of titanium dioxide from China was only 1.6417 million tons.
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According to the China Trade Remedy Information Network, on July 11, 2024, the European Commission issued a preliminary anti-dumping ruling on titanium dioxide originating in China, imposing temporary anti-dumping duties ranging from 14.4% to 39.7% on the products involved.
On January 9, 2025, the European Commission issued a final anti-dumping ruling on titanium dioxide originating in China, imposing anti-dumping duties of 0.25-0.74 euros/kg on the products involved.
In terms of production capacity and output
According to publicly available information, China’s titanium dioxide production capacity will continue to grow in 2024, with a total production capacity of 6.05 million tons by the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.5% compared to 2023. The production capacity growth is mainly in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Sichuan and other regions.
According to the Secretariat of the Titanium Dioxide Industry Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance, in 2024, there are a total of 42 full process titanium dioxide production enterprises in the industry with normal production conditions (excluding post-processing/post-treatment enterprises). The total amount of rutile type (including sulfuric acid process full process crude products, finished products, and chloride process products) and anatase type titanium dioxide and other related products produced by these 42 enterprises reached 4.766 million tons, an increase of 606000 tons or 14.57% from the previous year.
In terms of downstream terminal real estate
From January to November 2024, the national real estate development investment was 9363.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%. Among them, residential investment was 711.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.5%.
From January to November, the construction area of real estate development enterprises’ houses was 726014 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%. Among them, the construction area of residential buildings was 508.389 million square meters, a decrease of 13.1%. The newly started construction area of houses is 673.08 million square meters, a decrease of 23.0%. Among them, the newly started residential construction area was 489.89 million square meters, a decrease of 23.1%. The completed area of the house is 481.52 million square meters, a decrease of 26.2%. Among them, the completed residential area was 351.97 million square meters, a decrease of 26.0%.
From January to November, the sales area of newly-built commercial housing was 861.18 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%, of which the sales area of residential housing decreased by 16.0%. The sales revenue of newly-built commercial housing was 8512.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.2%, of which residential sales revenue decreased by 20.0%. At the end of November, the unsold area of commercial housing was 732.86 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. Among them, the unsold residential area increased by 18.4%.
From January to November, real estate development enterprises received 9657.5 billion yuan in funds, a year-on-year decrease of 18.0%. Among them, domestic loans amounted to 1347.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.2%; Utilizing foreign investment of 3 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.2%; Self raised funds amounted to 3467.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.0%; Deposits and prepayments amounted to 2962.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.2%; Personal mortgage loans amounted to 1391.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.4%.
In November, the real estate development prosperity index (referred to as the “National Housing Prosperity Index”) was 92.62.
Summary and prediction
For the Chinese titanium dioxide industry in 2024, the EU’s anti-dumping duties are undoubtedly a cold wave. The obstruction of the export market has exacerbated the problem of overcapacity in the domestic market, leading to a decline in the price of titanium dioxide and causing many enterprises to suffer losses. From the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025, more than ten companies have announced production cuts or shutdowns, and this trend is expected to continue until the Spring Festival holiday. At present, the prices of titanium dioxide manufacturers are mostly hovering around the cost line, and some companies are even experiencing losses.
Macro level: In 2024, the Chinese real estate market has entered the third year of a downward cycle, and the new housing sales market still faces significant pressure. In an optimistic situation, if the real estate market is expected to improve in the future, the renovation of urban villages and the collection and storage of existing housing will be accelerated, and residents’ willingness to purchase property will increase, the sales area of commercial housing in China may stop falling by 2025. This will bring certain benefits to the titanium dioxide market.
In terms of import and export, China’s titanium dioxide industry is facing enormous pressure. Under the influence of anti-dumping measures, the market may experience a situation of oversupply in the short term. However, in the long run, with technological and cost advantages, China’s titanium dioxide industry is expected to maintain competitiveness in the international market.
In terms of upstream raw materials, the domestic supply of raw material titanium concentrate is still tight, and the price continues to operate at a high level, which provides strong support for the cost of titanium dioxide powder.
In summary, titanium dioxide companies will still face significant pressure in 2025, given that the rate of capacity increase may exceed demand
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