1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic PVC spot market fell last month in December. As of December 31st, the average price of PVC in China was 4960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.27% for the whole month.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the PVC spot market continued its downward trend, with a slight narrowing of the decline. On the one hand, it was affected by weak upstream crude oil and ethylene, coupled with pressure from the futures market, resulting in a general bearish trend in the PVC spot market. On the other hand, there is a certain pressure on supply and demand, and the spot market has not yet escaped the downward channel. There is basically no rebound trend after a decline in the market during the month, and the operating rate continues to be high. Production continues to increase, and there is a slight surplus of supply. At present, there is no signal of bottoming out and stabilizing in the market. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of December 31st, the mainstream price range of PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4800-5050 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream calcium carbide, since November, the price of calcium carbide has stopped rising, but this month the price has continued to decline. According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of calcium carbide has increased by 5.1% since December. Overall, calcium carbide lacks positive guidance and has limited support. With downstream PVC falling back into a downturn, the price of calcium carbide may not stabilize or improve in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the supply and demand of PVC will continue to remain weak in the short term, mainly due to the sustained high operating rates of manufacturers and the high inventory levels of both enterprises and the market. On the cost side, the upstream price of calcium carbide is unlikely to rebound, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of the futures market, the PVC futures market has shown weak performance in the later stage, which has affected the confidence of the spot market, and the spot market is generally bearish. Combined with the approaching holiday, the market atmosphere is light, and it is expected that the PVC spot market will continue to remain weak and volatile in January 2025. We will closely monitor changes in the news.