According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated and rose from December 16 to December 23, 2024. On December 16th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5910 yuan/ton, and on December 23rd, the benchmark price of toluene was 6050 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.37% during the cycle. The overall trend of the toluene market this week is strong, while the overall trend of crude oil this week is stable with a slight increase, which has led to an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market. The demand for gasoline in Shandong has improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm of diversified enterprises has also rebounded to some extent. The overall ex factory prices of refineries in Shandong have risen, and the atmosphere in the spot market is good. Under the boost of the Shandong market, prices in other regions have also slightly increased.

Cost aspect: Currently, the crude oil market is mixed with bearish factors, and geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The protection of OPEC+production reduction atmosphere still exists, but the pessimistic demand will still suppress oil prices. Overall, the international crude oil market is mainly volatile. As of December 20th, the settlement price of the main international crude oil futures contract was $69.46 per barrel, an increase of $0.08 or 0.1%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $72.94 per barrel, an increase of $0.06 or 0.1%.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation is stable, and the company is currently operating normally. The production of the equipment is stable, and the products are mostly for personal use, with stable production and sales. As of December 20th, East China Company quoted 6000 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6050 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6000-6050 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6100 yuan/ton.

On the demand side, the external market for xylene has slightly rebounded, and demand support is still acceptable

On December 23rd, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company was temporarily stable, with a current execution price of 7150 yuan/ton. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units operated stably and sold normally, with prices unchanged from December 16th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of December 20th, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were $805-807/ton FOB Korea and $830-832/ton CFR China, an increase of $25/ton compared to December 13th.

Market forecast: The recent trend of crude oil is stable, moderate, and strong, with limited impact on the toluene market. The demand side has performed well recently, boosting the upward trend of the toluene market. However, downstream procurement has basically come to an end, and there is little intention to continue following up. Therefore, the sentiment of the spot market has slightly declined, and the lack of demand support has led to insufficient upward momentum in the toluene market. It is expected to maintain a stable, medium, and weak operation in the short term.