According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated downward from November 1st to 11th, 2024. On November 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 5860 yuan/ton, and on November 11th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% during the cycle. This week, the overall focus of the toluene market is relatively low, with the disproportionation industry being the main industry in Shandong. The purchasing enthusiasm of other industries is not high, and the overall downstream demand is more rigid. Overall, the toluene market has a strong supply-demand game mentality, and the market is mainly characterized by narrow fluctuations.
Cost wise: As of the 8th, international crude oil futures closed down, with the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures at $70.38 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $73.87 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have mainly fluctuated, with little overall change. On the one hand, OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, which is good news for international oil prices. On the other hand, the local economy in Asia has improved, and market panic on demand has eased, boosting the international oil market. However, geopolitical tensions have eased, and this news is bearish for the international oil market. There is a long short game, and overall, crude oil first rose and then fell during the cycle.
Supply side: Sinopec toluene quotation situation: Currently, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of the equipment is stable, the products are mostly self used, and the production and sales are stable. As of November 11th, East China Company quoted 5750 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5950 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5700-5750 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton.
Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and demand support is weak
On November 11th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price being 7300 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably, with normal sales, and the price is unchanged from November 1st. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of November 8th, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were $809-811/ton FOB Korea and $834-836/ton CFR China.
Market forecast: There will still be supply pressure in the toluene market in the near future, with major refineries accumulating inventory and actively shipping within the week. On the demand side, downstream suppliers will maintain on-demand procurement. Overall, the performance of supply and demand is weak, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate steadily with weak performance.