According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 16th to 20th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2401 yuan/ton to 2410 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.35% during the period, a month on month decrease of 1.70%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.10%. Domestic methanol production continues to rise, and some methanol production enterprises have pre holiday inventory demand. However, downstream and trading companies have a generally wait-and-see attitude towards restocking, with production enterprises mainly lowering their quotations and shipping. The domestic methanol market atmosphere is average.
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As of the close on September 20th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2501 for methanol futures opened at 2411 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2412 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2376 yuan/ton. It closed at 2382 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 3% or 0.13% compared to the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume was 550688 lots, the position was 791242 lots, and the daily increase was 21019.
As of September 20th, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:
Region/ Price
Shanxi region/ 2120-2140 yuan/ton
Liaoning region/ 2740 yuan/ton
Anhui region/ 2355 yuan/ton
Henan region/ 2230 yuan/ton factory withdrawal in foreign exchange
On the cost side, the sales situation of coal mines is average, and some coal mines with high inventory pressure have begun to slightly lower the prices at the pit mouth. With the stable prices of large coal enterprises’ external purchases, local coal plants and traders have a relatively calm sentiment towards the future market, and the prices at the production site have remained stable overall. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.
On the demand side, downstream MTBE: MTBE demand is increasing; The mainstream chloride factories in East China have a parking and maintenance plan, which reduces the demand for methanol; Downstream acetic acid: Increased demand for acetic acid; Downstream dimethyl ether: reduced demand for dimethyl ether; There is currently no plan to stop driving formaldehyde, and the demand fluctuation is not significant. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
Supply side, Shandong equipment maintenance; Inner Mongolia installation restored. The recovery amount exceeds the loss amount, and the capacity utilization rate increases. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of September 19th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $345.00- $346.00 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 108.00-109.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 349.50-350.50 euros/ton.
Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Rise and fall
Asia/ CFR Southeast Asia/ 345.00-346.00 USD/ton/ 0 USD/ton
Europe and America/ American Gulf/ 108.00 to 109.00 cents per gallon/ 1 cent/gallon
Europe/ FOB Rotterdam/ 349.50-350.50 euros/ton/ -0.5 euros/ton
Market forecast shows sufficient supply and strong willingness of factories to ship before the holiday; In terms of demand, traditional downstream profits are average, and there is limited room for further demand growth. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol market situation may mainly consolidate.
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