According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market fluctuated and declined in August. As of August 30th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 5383 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.68% from the beginning of the month. Despite some unplanned short-term shutdowns of PTA facilities during the month, the operating rate remained high and demand remained weak. Overall, PTA’s supply remained abundant, with strong expectations for inventory accumulation. The cooling of the geopolitical situation on the cost side has reduced market concerns about crude oil supply, leading to a wide decline in international crude oil prices and weakened support for PTA costs.

Looking at the future market, the current operating rate of the domestic PTA industry is around 86%. Two sets of PTA plants with a total capacity of 3.4 million tons are scheduled for maintenance in September, and there are currently no plans to restart the plants. In addition, the downstream is about to enter the seasonal peak season for polyester, and the demand for PTA may gradually rebound. Overall, the supply and demand structure of PTA may be improved, and the speed of inventory accumulation may slow down.

On the cost side of the international crude oil market, as of August 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $74.52 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $77.58 per barrel. At present, geopolitical instability continues to affect the market, with the traditional peak season in the United States coming to an end, coupled with poor economic data performance, the crude oil market is mainly volatile. The cost support for PX is limited, and the supply is at a high level. Some units have maintenance plans in September, which provides some support for PX prices.

On the demand side, the current downstream polyester industry operating rate is around 83%, and there is an expectation of the traditional peak season for polyester consumption, known as the “Golden September and Silver October”. Some polyester plants will restart in September, and the operating rate will slightly increase, which will lead to a rebound in PTA demand. Terminal reloading and weaving operations will also gradually rebound, with orders being placed one after another and approaching the replenishment cycle. Raw materials or appropriate replenishment will be required.

Business analysts believe that in the short term, international crude oil on the cost side is expected to fluctuate and stabilize, providing support for PTA costs. PTA plant shutdown maintenance helps alleviate supply pressure. In addition, some polyester plants will restart, and the demand for PTA will slightly rebound. Therefore, with a slight improvement in fundamentals, PTA prices are expected to fluctuate and stabilize in September.