According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of the end of the month, spot nickel was reported at 131666 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 1.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.49%. The macro sentiment is fluctuating, and there is no significant improvement in the spot trading atmosphere. Domestic and foreign inventories maintain a trend of accumulation, and nickel prices fluctuated and closed down in August.

Nickel industry chain

Macroscopically, news such as a decline in the US manufacturing PMI in July and weak non farm payroll reports have sparked global economic growth anxiety and concerns about weak demand; Various institutions predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, boosting market trends; At present, the optimistic expectation of interest rate cuts has largely subsided, while concerns about recession expectations continue.

On the supply side: Global inventories continue to increase, and expectations of oversupply remain unchanged. As of August 30th, LME nickel inventory was 118998 tons, with a month on month increase of 2382 tons; Shanghai nickel inventory is 22612 tons, an increase of 2544 tons month on month. Domestic inventory pressure is evident, and the upward momentum of nickel prices may weaken.

In terms of demand, stainless steel production slightly increased in August, with continuous release of output and fluctuating inventory levels. Downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, and the stainless steel market is under pressure. The expected demand for Jinjiu is not optimistic. On August 30th, the benchmark price of stainless steel plates in Shengyi Society was 12757.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from the beginning of the month, and continued to operate at a low level. The demand for alloys such as military and shipbuilding remains stable, and enterprises are buying at low prices.

Market forecast: Demand has not improved yet, inventory is under pressure, surplus pattern continues, macroeconomic fluctuations, and it is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term.