According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the xylene market first rose and then fell in July 2024. From July 1st to 31st, the domestic xylene market price fell from 7750 yuan/ton to 7660 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.16% during the period and a cumulative decrease of 110 yuan/ton.

In the first half of the month, the mixed xylene market is operating steadily with a moderate to strong trend, the crude oil market is trending steadily with a moderate to strong trend, and the cost support is good. On the supply and demand side, refinery inventory and port inventory are both low, and the xylene market is operating strongly due to tight supply. Downstream entry into the market is active, and market negotiations are good, driving the market upward. The mixed xylene market is stable, moderate, and strong.

Late of the month: The overall market for mixed xylene is declining, with refinery prices generally falling and inventory overall high. Port sources in East China are increasing, and market supply is generally loose. On the demand side, it is affected by the weak market atmosphere, with downstream companies maintaining rigid demand and replenishing inventory. Demand support is biased towards rigid demand, and there is a lack of demand support, resulting in an overall weak operation of the mixed xylene market.

On the cost side: In July 2024, the crude oil market first rose and then fell, with an overall wide decline. As of July 29, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.81 per barrel, a monthly decline of 6.85%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $79.05 per barrel, a monthly decrease of 6.83%. The crude oil analyst of Shengyi Society believes that on the one hand, the easing of the geopolitical situation is bearish on the crude oil market. In addition, the strengthening of the US dollar has affected economic activity in the United States due to hurricanes, putting pressure on crude oil demand and causing signs of a slowdown in US crude oil exports. On the other hand, there are also signs of slowing economic growth in the Eurozone and China, especially the decline in China’s crude oil imports, which has had a negative impact on the crude oil market. Overall, the crude oil market has declined during the cycle, with a negative rate of change in crude oil. Looking at the future: Currently, geopolitical instability continues to affect the market, OPEC+’s production reduction stance is firm, and the traditional peak season in the United States still holds positive news. Under the influence of both supply and demand, oil prices will continue to maintain a range oscillation pattern.

Supply side: During this cycle, Sinopec’s xylene quotations have generally decreased this week. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales of equipment. The company’s quotations remain unchanged from the previous day. As of the 31st, East China Company quoted 7750 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 7550 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 7650-7750 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 7600 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Phthalic anhydride and p-xylene markets continue to decline

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the phthalic anhydride market first rose and then fell in July. As of the 31st, the phthalic anhydride market in Shandong region has stabilized, and downstream factories maintain their essential purchases. High end transactions have been hindered, and the mainstream price for on-site ortho benzene source negotiations is 7600-7800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The mainstream price for naphthalene source negotiations is 7300-7500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month.

On July 31st, Sinopec announced the settlement price for xylene in July 2024, which was 8550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton from the settlement price in June 2024 and a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from the listing price in July. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of July 30th, the closing price of CFR China was $993/ton, which was $1044/ton at the beginning of the month and a cumulative decrease of $51/ton.

External market: During this cycle, the overall decline in Asian xylene external market has occurred. As of July 30th and August, FOB Korea closed at 857-859 US dollars per ton, with a cumulative decrease of 74 US dollars per ton; CFR China closed at $888/ton in August, with a cumulative decrease of $63/ton.

Market forecast: Limited support in the crude oil market, oil prices will continue to fluctuate in the low range, and there will be insufficient cost support. The overall supply of goods from ports in East China is on the rise, and the market supply has been relatively loose recently. From a demand perspective, the overall performance of the downstream market is weak, with the xylene market only maintaining a supply of essential goods. The xylene and PX external markets have both recently declined, dragging down market sentiment and weakening market expectations. Overall, the atmosphere in the xylene market is relatively weak, and it is expected that prices will remain stable, moderate, and weak in the short term.