1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the butyl rubber market has shown a downward trend since May, with a benchmark price of 17860 yuan/ton in early May. As of May 31st, the benchmark price of butyl rubber was 17600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. A decrease of 1.46%. The price of butyl rubber was lowered in mid May. The cost side has been experiencing a continuous decline in isobutene prices since mid May. The overall trend shows a fluctuating downward trend.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side:

Under the long short game, international crude oil fell in May, reaching a low point in nearly three months. The short-term decline in crude oil prices is a squeezing effect of amplified bearish sentiment on both supply and demand sides. However, the future supply and demand fundamentals do not support the maintenance of low oil prices.

During the cycle, the crude oil market declined, and the isobutene market showed a synchronous downward trend. In early May, the benchmark price of isobutene was 12225 yuan/ton. As of May 28th, the standard price of isobutene was 12025 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The downstream demand for isobutylene lacks favorable incentives, and retail shipments are average. In the short term, the domestic isobutene market may continue to be weak.

Supply and demand side:

In April, the import volume of butyl rubber was 18441.999 tons, a decrease of 1613.368 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 8.04%. In April, the export volume of butyl rubber was 7820.57 tons, an increase of 526.429 tons compared to the previous month, a year-on-year increase of 6.73%, and a month on month increase of 18.02%. From January to April 2024, China imported a total of 66757.989 tons of butyl rubber, a year-on-year increase of 39.30%. The overall import volume of butyl rubber has increased compared to the same period last year. In mid May, Shandong Jingbo Zhongju’s 50000 ton/year butyl rubber plant was shut down for maintenance. Although Jingbo Zhongju’s domestic supply of goods was tightened during maintenance, imported goods arrived at the port to replenish inventory. At present, the domestic butyl rubber market is relatively loose.

The load rate of the downstream steel tire industry has decreased compared to last month, with the load rate of the entire steel tire industry at around 5.5 floors and the load rate of the semi steel tire industry at around 6.6 floors. Some enterprises in the steel tire industry have stopped for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in demand for raw materials.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In terms of raw materials, the isobutene market is operating weakly, and the cost support for butyl rubber is weakening; In terms of supply and demand, the order performance of the main downstream steel tire industry enterprises was lower than expected, and downstream bearish performance was obvious. They mostly followed up on demand, and market trading was poor. In the future, the cost of butyl rubber is bearish, and the supply-demand game is deadlocked. It is expected that the butyl rubber market will continue to be weak and consolidate in the later period.