This week, the lead market (5.13-5.20) has shown an overall upward trend, with the average domestic market price last week at 17790 yuan/ton and this week at 18540 yuan/ton, up 4.22%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall, and the overall market trend has been stable, moderate, and strong in recent times. The lead ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

Macro: The US non farm payroll data in April fell short of expectations, and the softening of consumer prices in April boosted market expectations. The Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September this year, with two cuts throughout the year, and the market has regained its expectation of a rate cut. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States announced on Thursday exceeded expectations and rebounded, reaching a new high since August 2023. The US dollar index closed last Friday with a weekly decline of 0.79%. The US dollar weakened, and the non-ferrous metal sector rebounded.

Supply: The supply at the mining end is still tight, with local lead enterprises resuming work and undergoing maintenance in the near future, and local lead enterprises operating at a low rate; The difficulty in purchasing raw materials for recycled lead enterprises has led to a decline in operating rates and a tight supply of recycled lead. Due to the impact of raw material supply, the expected supply of lead ingots in the near future is tight.

Demand: May is the seasonal off-season for battery companies, and they are still actively digesting existing inventory. Due to the high rise in raw material prices, battery companies are currently under significant cost pressure and operating at a low level.

Future outlook: Overall, the macro market atmosphere is currently warm, with the nonferrous metal market generally rising and lead prices following the overall upward trend. The lead ingot market has been affected by multiple factors, and the supply has been tight recently. With the dual benefits of macro and supply constraints, lead prices will continue to remain strong in the short term.

Industry data:

On May 19th, the base metal index was 1359 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 15.90% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 111.68% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On May 19th, the non-ferrous index was 1242 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 19.25% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 104.61% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 20th week of 2024 (5.13-5.17), there were a total of 12 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 4 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 16% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase are antimony (12.80%), tin (5.35%), and aluminum oxide (5.07%). There are a total of 8 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with a decline are dysprosium oxide (-4.20%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.83%), and dysprosium iron alloy (-1.69%). The average increase and decrease this week is 1.23%.