According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 6th to 11th, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province dropped from 3680 yuan/ton to 3652 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.78%, an increase of 0.16% month on month, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.81%. In some regions, the price range has been narrowed down, while the overall spot price of asphalt has remained stable with minor adjustments. Affected by the significant decline in crude oil during the holiday, some brand markets in Shandong and North China remained stable and fell after the holiday, while the asphalt market showed some fatigue and the trading atmosphere was light.

On the supply side, in terms of major production enterprises, the increase in asphalt production by Dongming Petrochemical and individual main refineries in East China has driven the overall supply up; The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, with negative impacts on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have seen a narrow decline overall, with the main negative factors being the positive progress in the ceasefire negotiations between Palestine and Israel, the easing of geopolitical tensions, and the still bearish outlook for global demand. As of May 9th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $83.88 per barrel.

On the demand side, logistics and transportation are limited during the holiday period, and some downstream projects are intermittently suspended, resulting in a decrease in asphalt shipments. After the holiday, downstream demand has slightly increased, and the industry mainly purchases according to demand. The differentiation of demand between the north and south is obvious, and the impact of precipitation weather in the south is still significant, making it difficult to recover demand; As the weather improves in the north, construction conditions are gradually improving, and downstream resumption of work is expected to increase. The demand side of the asphalt market has a mixed impact.

As of the close on May 11th, the petroleum asphalt futures market remained stable. The main asphalt contract 2409 opened at 3689 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3694 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3681 yuan/ton. It closed at 3687 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume was 45062 lots, with a position of 186343 lots and a daily increase of 359 lots.

In the future market forecast, the fluctuating operation after the cost side falls will have weak support for asphalt prices, and the supply will increase in the short term. The demand differentiation between the north and south is obvious, and with a dual increase in supply and demand, asphalt analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic asphalt market situation will be mainly focused on observation and consolidation.