1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda decreased in April. At the beginning of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was 852 yuan/ton, and by the end of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was around 790 yuan/ton. The overall price dropped by 7.28%, a decrease of 12.61% compared to the same period last year. On April 29th, the chlor alkali index was 991 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 53.43% from the highest point in the cycle of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 39.19% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has been weak this month. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market quotation of around 810-880 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market quotation of around 690-790 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda.

At the beginning of the month, the overall price of caustic soda was weak, and downstream aluminum oxide spot trading activity was average. The demand for caustic soda was average, and there was a strong wait-and-see purchasing sentiment. During the pre May Day stocking period, prices fluctuated slightly, but the overall price of caustic soda remained stable. With the increase in domestic caustic soda supply, there was pressure to sell goods. Downstream aluminum oxide spot stocks are mostly purchased on demand after pre holiday stocking, and moderate replenishment of caustic soda prices is not supported by favorable factors.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 17th week of 2024 (4.22-4.26), there were a total of 2 products that rose, 3 products that fell, and 2 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include: light soda ash (5.26%) and baking soda (1.95%); The main commodities falling are: calcium carbide (-3.89%), caustic soda (-0.75%), and PVC (-0.04%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.36%.

Business Society analysts believe that in recent times, caustic soda prices have been consolidating and operating. The purchase price of main alumina in Shandong region has been lowered again, with downstream demand being cautious and wait-and-see sentiment being the main factor. The transaction is lukewarm and not hot, and it is expected to move downwards in the later stage. The specific situation depends on downstream market demand.