Price trend

In April, the domestic POM market stabilized after a decline, and spot prices were adjusted and put into operation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 12700 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.24% from the price level on April 1st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

The domestic methanol market rose horizontally in April, with gains concentrated in the second half of the month. In the early stage, the fundamentals of methanol were moderately competitive, but later due to the digestion of social inventory positions, the market supply and demand tended to be balanced. Combined with downstream pre holiday stocking in the second half of the month, the market atmosphere has warmed up, driving up methanol prices and supporting the cost side of POM.

In terms of supply:

In April, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises fell from a high level. During this period, Tangshan Zhonghao and Yankuang Luhua underwent maintenance and reduced their load, resulting in an overall load reduction of about 9% or 70%. The synchronous reduction in production has partially digested the inventory position of the enterprise. Some manufacturers have implemented pricing adjustments. However, there is some news of device resumption after the holiday, and the market confidence in the future is insufficient. Overall, there is an expectation of a rebound in supply pressure.

In terms of demand:

In April, the inventory situation of domestic POM downstream enterprises was average, with most of them needing to purchase goods to maintain production. At the beginning of the month, POM took over the previous weak market, and buyers had a certain level of waiting for a decline. During the Qingming holiday, businesses were delisted and trading on the exchange was suspended. In the middle of the month, the main logic for factories to purchase goods is to maintain and digest inventory, and the flow rate of goods on site is still poor. The release of stocking before the Qingming Festival at the end of the month is not significant, and the consumption level still continues to follow the previous weak trend. Traders have poor credibility and may engage in underreporting or profit taking operations. Overall, the demand side has poor support for POM spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

After the decline in the POM market trend in April, it was sorted out. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has significantly declined, but there are many enterprises resuming work after the holiday. Although the pressure on the supply side has eased, there are also expectations of a return. Downstream consumer follow-up remains weak, with no significant release of pre holiday stocking. At present, the bullish trend of POM is gradually digesting, and it is expected that the market may weaken after the holiday.