According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of soda ash was weak in early April. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 1940 yuan/ton. On April 11th, the average market price was 1900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06%, a decrease of 30.15% compared to the same period last year. Since the beginning of 2024, the price of soda ash has been showing a weak trend, with a decline of 31.9% from the beginning of the year to the present.

Domestic soda ash price trend:

From a supply perspective: This week, the operating rate of domestic soda ash decreased to 83.50%, resulting in a decrease in supply of goods and a decrease in inventory of some manufacturers. Recently, some soda ash plants have undergone maintenance, resulting in a slight relief in supply pressure. However, as of April 11, 2024, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers this week was 912500 tons, compared to the previous period’s data of 916800 tons, a decrease of 0.47%. Among them, there are 365500 tons of light inventory and 547000 tons of heavy inventory. Currently, it appears that soda ash enterprises are still experiencing inventory accumulation, which is suppressing the mentality of the soda ash market, and the price of soda ash may fluctuate.

From a demand perspective: the glass sector is operating weakly. At the beginning of April, the average market price was 18.55 yuan/ton. On April 11th, the average market price was 18.76 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.13%, a decrease of 7.95% compared to the same period last year. There is a replenishment plan for the downstream of the glass section, but the overall demand remains stable. Downstream quotations have stabilized recently, but transaction performance has been weak.

From the perspective of profit: With the decline of soda ash prices, production profit has significantly declined, at a low level in the past three years. As of April 5th, the production profit of domestic ammonia alkali enterprises was 336.16 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.9% month on month and a decrease of 68.55% year on year; The production profit of the joint production enterprise was 514.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.05% month on month and 72.2% year-on-year. Although the profit of soda ash has significantly declined, soda ash enterprises still have profits and there is currently no large-scale maintenance plan announced.

From a technical perspective, the price of soda ash may continue to fluctuate weakly in the market. Since December 31, 2023, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. On April 7, 2024, it is estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 7-day moving average above the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 27.31%.

Soda ash is at a low level of one year, two years, and three years. According to the commodity analysis system, the average value of soda ash in the past year is 2407.78 yuan/ton, with a median value of 2495 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 1900 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 3090 yuan/ton. The low price difference (compared to the lowest historical price difference in the past year) is 0 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest historical price difference in the past year) is -1190 yuan/ton.

Business Society analysts believe that according to the Business Society’s product analysis system, some soda ash units have undergone maintenance recently, resulting in a decline in production. However, the inventory of enterprises remains high, with downstream on-demand procurement being the main focus, and the purchasing sentiment is not positive, resulting in insufficient driving force for the overall price increase of soda ash. It is expected that the price of caustic soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.