According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market continued to rise this week. The spot rubber market in China was around 13100 yuan/ton on February 29, up 1.55% from around 12900 yuan/ton on February 26.

This week, the natural rubber market has risen, with the Shanghai rubber 05 contract rising from 13750 yuan/ton to around 13900 yuan/ton. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 13500-13600 yuan/ton, bulk at around 12800-12900 yuan/ton, Vietnam imports latex bulk at around 11600-11800 yuan/ton, and domestically produced latex bulk at around 11700 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, raw material output is limited and prices remain high. On the Thai side, raw material output is limited and prices rise; Vietnam’s production areas have entered a shutdown period; China has entered a period of cutting cessation. At present, it is still in the off-season for seasonal construction, and some factories are shutting down. As of February 25, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao area was 666100 tons, a decrease of 9600 tons or 1.43% compared to the previous period.

On the demand side: During the holiday period, downstream tire production was low, and the demand side was weak. After the holiday, downstream tire production increased, providing certain support for styrene butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of the 22nd, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 6.3%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is around 45%.

Market forecast: Currently, there is a tight supply of raw materials both domestically and internationally, with domestic production areas entering a shutdown period and some foreign production areas entering a shutdown period. The strong prices of raw materials support the natural rubber market; At present, downstream factories are gradually resuming production, and the procurement of natural rubber may increase. However, downstream restocking may take some time, and it is expected that the natural rubber spot market will mainly consolidate at a high level in the near future.