According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of refined petroleum coke in February declined. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries in February was 1682.50 yuan/ton on February 29th and 1735.00 yuan/ton on February 1st, with a monthly decline of 3.03%.

Cost side: In February, international crude oil prices fluctuated upwards. On the one hand, the instability of the Middle East situation still exists due to the disturbance of the geopolitical situation, which further pushed up the risk premium of crude oil. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish signal of delaying interest rate cuts has dampened market confidence.

Supply side: At the beginning of the month, downstream pre holiday procurement basically ended, logistics slowed down, refinery shipments slowed down, and prices fluctuated; Affected by widespread rain and snow weather after the holiday, transportation and logistics were hindered, and the local refined petroleum coke market had weak transactions, with prices continuing to decline; At present, downstream enterprises have a low enthusiasm for receiving goods, and the local refining petroleum coke market is under pressure for shipments, with refineries reducing prices for shipments.

On the demand side, the price of metal silicon slightly declined in February and is generally in a downward cycle. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of February 29, 2024, the reference price for the domestic 441 # metal silicon market is 15290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.11% from the beginning of the month. The fundamentals of silicon metal in February were in a state of weak supply and demand, as the supply side continued to contract due to the Spring Festival holiday, and the operating rates of factories in various regions remained low; Downstream, the decrease in procurement operations due to holidays has resulted in a bearish supply and demand situation, leading to a price decline. At present, the support of metallic silicon for petroleum coke is still acceptable.

At present, the shipment of medium sulfur calcined coke is average, and some downstream aluminum carbon enterprises continue to suffer losses in production, with average purchasing sentiment. The aluminum carbon market mainly requires petroleum coke, while the demand for negative electrode materials is average. The pre calcined anode market is weak, and the calcined coke market is mainly volatile and consolidating.

In February, the electrolytic aluminum market was mainly weak and volatile, with downstream receiving sentiment being relatively negative. However, as the traditional consumption peak season approaches, downstream demand may gradually recover, and the production capacity operating rate of China’s leading aluminum downstream industry enterprises is expected to rise. At present, aluminum carbon enterprises mainly have a strong demand for petroleum coke.

Market forecast: In March, the coking plant in the refinery will enter the peak maintenance season, and the supply of petroleum coke from local refineries may decrease; But currently, downstream demand is limited, and the market maintains a focus on essential procurement; In addition, the continuous arrival of imported petroleum coke at the port may increase the storage of petroleum coke in the port. Overall, it is expected that there will be a certain upward trend in the price of refined petroleum coke in March.