According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from December 11th to 18th, the domestic ethanol price remained at 6800 yuan/ton, with a stable month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 1.98%. In some regions, freight rates have slightly increased, and factory shipments are relatively weak. Snowy weather in some areas affects delivery time, prices remain stable, orders are shipped, and transportation vehicles are difficult to find. The overall weakness of the domestic ethanol market is mainly due to consolidation.

On the cost side, as we enter mid December, the market volume of corn in the production areas continues to increase, and the weak corn prices have led to an increase in the intention of grain trading entities to liquidate their exports. In addition, the new season of corn production has once again increased, and the domestic corn market supply has become more relaxed. Ports and deep processing corn inventories are relatively sufficient. Downstream trading entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and feed demand continues to be weak. Under the pressure of strong market supply and weak demand, The domestic corn market prices continue to be weak. The cost side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions, with 38.54% operating in East China and 91.04% operating in Northeast China; The operating rate in South China and Southwest China is 19.65%; Short term domestic ethanol production and stable food supply in Northeast China. The ethanol supply in East China has increased due to an increase in port cargo arrivals. Coal based ethanol supply is stable. Or new production capacity may be put into operation, and by-products will soon be produced. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintain normal production status. There is a possibility of recovery for the ethyl acetate factory, and the ethyl acetate project in Anhui is awaiting production. Baijiu just needs to be purchased. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the cost is bearish, and the supply and demand in different regions are greatly affected by weather factors. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market situation may be dominated by weak consolidation.