According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the operating rate of Shandong Isooctanol plant decreased in early December, but the downstream plasticizer market surged. The operating rate of the plasticizer industry increased, and downstream demand increased. Coupled with low inventory of Isooctanol manufacturers, the supply of Isooctanol was tight, and the market price of Isooctanol increased significantly. The price of isooctanol increased from 11500.00 yuan/ton on December 1st to 12750.00 yuan/ton on December 7th, an increase of 1250 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.87%, and a year-on-year increase of 37.10%.

On December 6th, the Isooctanol Commodity Index was 90.74, an increase of 4.42 points from yesterday, a decrease of 34.01% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 158.15% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Market situation: At the beginning of the month, the mainstream market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province increased significantly. Currently, the market for isooctanol in Shandong region is on an upward trend.

Recent operating rate of the isooctanol industry chain

Operating rate: At the beginning of the month, the operating rate of isooctanol units decreased, and the operating rate of isooctanol units in Shandong region decreased from 95% in November to around 92%. At the same time, isooctanol units in South China have not yet resumed, and inventory of isooctanol manufacturers is also at a low level, resulting in tight supply of isooctanol.

Cost side: Propylene market fluctuates and falls

In early December, the ex factory price of propylene fluctuated and fell. The price of propylene dropped from 7105.75 yuan/ton on December 1st to 7018.25 yuan/ton on December 7th, a decrease of 1.23% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.50%. The upstream market of isooctanol has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support, which has a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

On the demand side, the DOP market has seen a significant increase

In early December, the DOP market price significantly increased. The price of DOP increased from 11450.00 yuan/ton on December 1st to 11958.33 yuan/ton on December 7th, an increase of 4.44% and a year-on-year increase of 21.53%. The downstream DOP market has significantly increased, with the operating rate of DOP manufacturers rising from 59% in November to 62% in early December. Downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol. The increase in demand side procurement provides stable support for the price increase of isooctanol.

In the future, the domestic isooctanol market may experience a slight fluctuation and increase in mid December. Although upstream propylene prices have slightly declined and cost support is average, downstream DOP prices have significantly increased, downstream operating rates have increased, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol. Analysts from Shengyishe Isooctanol believe that in the short term, the Shandong Isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.