Price trend

In November, the domestic POM market stopped falling and rebounded, with a narrow increase in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 30th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13000 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of 1.36% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market in Shengyishe, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region slightly declined in November. The raw material methanol market is fluctuating and consolidating, with average cost support. Downstream board factories continue to have weak demand due to environmental impact. Formaldehyde manufacturers are operating normally, and production enterprises are under great pressure to ship. The market is declining, which provides poor support for POM.

In terms of supply:

After the overall operating rate of domestic POM enterprises fell in November, it rebounded. At the beginning of the month, the industry’s device load was at a high level of over 80%, and the range fell below 77% before rebounding. At the end of the month, the overall load returned to 81%. Due to the high supply pressure at the beginning, the decline in spot prices was concentrated in the first ten days. Subsequently, after continuous digestion of market supply, most enterprise inventories returned to low levels, and the supply side’s support for POM spot goods has been restored. However, it is feared that inventory will accumulate in the future.

In terms of demand:

In November, the production level of downstream POM enterprises in China was average, with enterprises mainly digesting inventory. On exchange trading was weak, and there was no significant increase in POM consumption. After the price stopped falling and rebounded, the operators followed up with more caution, and their resistance to high priced goods returned. Overall, the demand side’s support for POM spot prices is average.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market trend in November stopped falling and rebounded. After the domestic polymerization plant’s operating rate was lowered, it returned, and the overall supply of goods on site was abundant, partially easing the supply pressure. At present, manufacturers have stabilized the confidence of traders through market support operations, and some merchants tend to be reluctant to sell their goods. On the demand side, terminal enterprises operate at a low level, with cautious purchasing operations and resistance to high priced sources, resulting in average on-site trading. At the end of the month, under the containment of weak costs, lagging demand, and high supply, business owners have weak confidence in the future. It is expected that the POM market may experience limited growth in the near future.