1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 7200 yuan/ton on November 1st. On November 29th, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 7000 yuan/ton. This month, the domestic price of hot process phosphoric acid decreased by 2.78%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6950 yuan/ton on November 1st, and 6833 yuan/ton on November 29th. This month, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price has dropped by 1.68%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of phosphoric acid in the market has fluctuated and fallen this month. In early November, the market price of hot process phosphoric acid adjusted narrowly, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid remained stable. The prices of raw phosphorus ore and yellow phosphorus have risen, leading to increased cost support. The operating rate of phosphoric acid enterprises is stable, there is a large amount of market inventory, and downstream demand is not performing well. The industry is mainly wait-and-see. In mid to late November, the prices of hot process phosphoric acid and wet process phosphoric acid fluctuated and fell. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, and the cost support for phosphoric acid is insufficient. Downstream on-demand procurement results in fewer new orders in the market and poor on-site trading. As of November 29th, the factory price of 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 7000 yuan/ton, the factory price of 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6500-7150 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 7000 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85 wet process phosphoric acid is around 6150-7550 yuan/ton.

Market for raw material yellow phosphorus. In November, the price of yellow phosphorus first rose and then fell, and overall, the market price of yellow phosphorus slightly decreased. In early November, due to the impact of power rationing policies in Yunnan, yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan suspended their quotations. The yellow phosphorus market in Sichuan region is trending upwards, with strong reluctance from enterprises to sell and rising prices. In the middle of the month, the overall trading situation of yellow phosphorus in the market was light, downstream procurement was cautious, and there was a wait-and-see trend. The acceptance of high priced yellow phosphorus was poor, and the market quotation for yellow phosphorus was loose, resulting in a price reduction. In the latter half of the year, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market continued to decrease slightly, with weak downstream market demand and less active procurement, with a focus on essential needs. Be cautious and observe, as the market on both supply and demand sides is relatively stagnant, with companies mainly focusing on raising prices. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is mostly around 25600 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. This month, the overall domestic phosphate ore market has shown a steady upward trend, with the focus of the phosphate ore market constantly moving towards the high-end. Many domestic mining enterprises, including those in Guizhou, Sichuan, and Guangxi, have raised the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate rock, with a cumulative increase of about 50-90 yuan/ton for 30% grade phosphate rock within the month. The supply of low-priced goods in phosphate ore yards is gradually decreasing, and the price difference between high and low prices is narrowing. As of November 29th, the domestic 30% grade phosphate ore market price is referenced around 1000-1100 yuan/ton, and the high-end price is referenced around 1150 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the recent trend of the phosphoric acid market is mainly downward. The market for raw material yellow phosphorus is weakening, with insufficient cost support. Downstream demand is weak, with a focus on purchasing essential goods and an increased mentality of buying up rather than falling. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will be mainly weak.