1、 Price trend

According to monitoring of commodity data, the price of yellow phosphorus rose first and then fell in November, and overall, the market price of yellow phosphorus has slightly decreased. On November 1st, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 25960 yuan/ton, and on November 28th, the average price was 25729.33 yuan/ton. The monthly price has decreased by 0.89%.

2、 Market analysis

In November, the price of yellow phosphorus first rose and then fell, and overall, the market price of yellow phosphorus slightly decreased. In early November, due to the impact of power rationing policies in Yunnan, yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan suspended their quotations. The yellow phosphorus market in Sichuan region is trending upwards, with strong reluctance from enterprises to sell and rising prices. In the middle of the month, the overall trading situation of yellow phosphorus in the market was light, downstream procurement was cautious, and there was a wait-and-see trend. The acceptance of high priced yellow phosphorus was poor, and the market quotation for yellow phosphorus was loose, resulting in a price reduction. In the latter half of the year, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market continued to decrease slightly, with weak downstream market demand and less active procurement, with a focus on essential needs. Be cautious and observe, as the market on both supply and demand sides is relatively stagnant, and companies are mainly focusing on raising prices. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is mostly around 25600 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, according to data monitoring by Business Society, as of November 28, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1054 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1, 2023 (reference price of phosphate ore is 1024 yuan/ton), the price increased by 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.93%. At present, the overall trading atmosphere of phosphate ore is still good, and the mentality of the industry is good. The support for the phosphate ore market from both supply and demand sides is still good. The phosphate ore data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly operate at high levels, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

In terms of coke, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of coke increased in November 2023. The average price of coke on November 1 was 2125 yuan/ton, and on November 28 it was 2226.67 yuan/ton. The monthly price increased by 4.78%. In November, the atmosphere in the coke market was relatively strong, and the supply side saw an increase in coking coal prices, leading to a stronger mentality among coke companies. In terms of demand, as the market atmosphere has strengthened recently, downstream trade has actively entered the market for inquiries, and some inventory has flowed into the trading market. Under the boost of winter storage demand from steel mills, enterprises are actively replenishing their inventory. Overall, the atmosphere in the coke market is relatively strong. Under the tight supply boost, it is expected that the market will continue to operate strongly in the short term.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of phosphoric acid on November 1st was 7200 yuan/ton, and the average price on November 28th was 7020 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 2.5% during the month. This month, the price of phosphoric acid in the market fluctuated downward, and the market trend of phosphoric acid weakened. The raw material yellow phosphorus market is average, and the cost support for phosphoric acid is insufficient. Coupled with weak downstream demand, the industry holds a bearish sentiment. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will be mainly weak and consolidating.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that the price of yellow phosphorus rose first and then fell in November. At present, the market trading situation is light, market prices are relatively flexible, low-end prices are difficult to find, and high-end prices are difficult to trade. Manufacturers tend to raise prices, while downstream suppliers lower prices for purchases. The upstream and downstream markets are deadlocked in trading, and businesses are mostly wait-and-see. Overall, it is expected that the market price of yellow phosphorus will remain stable and operate in the short term, with actual transactions being discussed on a single basis.