According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the recent (11.1-11.13) mixed xylene market has significantly declined. On November 13th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.09% from 7330 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point in the cycle was 7350 yuan/ton.
Since then, the arbitrage space between Asia and the United States has narrowed, and the external market price of xylene has decreased
Since the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, the Asia US interest rate gap has severely shrunk, and the price of toluene in Asia has decreased. As of November 13th, the price of isomeric grade xylene in Asia was between $864 and $865 per ton.
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There is not much pressure on the supply side of xylene due to a decrease in port inventory
The inventory of mixed xylene remains low, and the supply of goods is still relatively tight, providing support for the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of November 9th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China was 19500 tons, a decrease from 24000 tons at the beginning of the month.
Since November, international crude oil prices have fluctuated at a low level, and xylene cost support has weakened
Since November, the overall international crude oil price has declined, weakening the cost support for toluene. As of November 13th, the WTI12 contract closed at $78.51 per barrel; The Brent 01 contract closed at $82.71 per barrel.
PX starts to stabilize xylene and obtain just needed support
The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, there has been little change in spot supply during the maintenance of some xylene units. Recently, the international crude oil price trend has declined, and PX external prices have been affected by this. As of the 9th, the closing prices in Asia were 967-969 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 992-994 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and the domestic xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.
Weak demand for phthalic anhydride and weak support for xylene
The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable. Currently, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China is maintained at over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride goods is relatively sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride goods is normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has dropped, which has correspondingly impacted the neighboring phthalic anhydride market. Recently, downstream procurement has not been active, and some phthalic anhydride factories have lowered their factory prices, resulting in a sluggish market situation for phthalic anhydride.
Domestic mixed blending demand is gradually entering the off-season and xylene demand support is weakening
Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a low season, and downstream inquiries have been light. The demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of November 10th, the gasoline production of Shandong Independent Refinery decreased by 96600 tons compared to mid October, while diesel production decreased by 181000 tons.
Future forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices have been consolidating at a low level in the near future, and the cost of xylene is at a low level; The demand in downstream mixing and other industries continues to weaken, but the supply of xylene is still relatively tight, and it is expected that the xylene market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.
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