According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic 1 # tin ingot market experienced a wide range of fluctuations in October 2023. The average price in the domestic market was 218310 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 213760 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decrease of 2.08%.

On October 30th, the base metal index was 1192 points, an increase of 12 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 26.24% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 85.67% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

On October 30th, the tin commodity index was 109.49, an increase of 1.52 points from yesterday, a decrease of 41.67% from the cycle’s highest point of 187.70 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 155.46% from the lowest point of 42.86 points on December 9th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the recent fluctuations in tin prices have been relatively small. From the K-bar chart of the week, it can be seen that the tin market has been declining for five consecutive weeks, with a positive trend and a negative trend in recent times.

In October 2023, the tin ingot market experienced a wide range of fluctuations, ranging from 21200 to 21850 yuan/ton. During the month, the market mainly followed macroeconomic factors and was less affected by the supply and demand side. During the month, the spot market showed slightly light trading, and the market replenished inventory as needed. The main reason is that in the early stage, most downstream enterprises actively replenished their inventory when the tin price was low. Currently, the main focus is on consuming inventory in the factory, and the willingness to replenish inventory is still low. In terms of import data, the import of tin ore in September plummeted sharply, with a year-on-year decrease of 54.79% and a month on month decrease of 73.18%. However, in the early stage, the import volume in the domestic market was relatively large, so the short-term impact on the domestic market was limited. With the weakening of foreign markets and the opening of import markets, domestic import sources have increased, and the market is expected to have a decent supply. In terms of domestic supply, the operation of smelters has been relatively stable recently, and the operating rate has not changed much. However, the import market has performed well. With the weakening of the overseas market and the continuous high level of overseas inventory, the market is expected to have more imported tin ingots entering the domestic market, and the market is expected to have sufficient supply in the future. In terms of demand, there is currently no substantial improvement in the downstream market, and future expectations are still weak. Overall, under high inventory pressure, the tin ingot market is under pressure and downward trend.

Related data:

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of tin ore sand and its concentrate in September 2023 was 7263 tons (equivalent to 3276 metal tons), a year-on-year decrease of 54.79% and a month on month decrease of 73.18%.

According to data from the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS), the global refined tin production in August 2023 was 26200 tons, with a consumption of 27500 tons and a supply shortage of 13000 tons; From January to August 2023, the global refined tin production was 226000 tons, with a consumption of 218400 tons and an oversupply of 7600 tons. In August 2023, the global tin ore production was 21400 tons; The global tin ore production from January to August 2023 was 195300 tons.