According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market has rebounded in a narrow range. From October 19th to 26th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 15450 yuan/ton to 15683 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.51% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 5.14%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.36%. The main production enterprises have completed the execution of the MDI plan for the month’s distribution channel aggregation, resulting in low inventory and tight supply, resulting in delayed shipments. Next month, the supplier maintenance will be more concentrated, and the supply inventory is expected to shrink, leading to a slight rebound in market prices.
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On the supply side, maintenance of the 600000 ton/year unit at Shanghai MDI factory began on November 16th, with distillation shutdown for about two weeks and synthesis maintenance until mid December. The 400000 ton/year device at Chongqing MDI factory is scheduled for maintenance in early December. In addition, there are rumors in the market that the Ningbo factory has maintenance plans. The supply side is shrinking, but there is still room for improvement. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.
On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene has experienced narrow fluctuations in the domestic pure benzene market. Port inventory has been slightly depleted, and with the support of a significant increase in crude oil futures, the negotiated price of pure benzene has rapidly increased to above 7900 yuan/ton. However, due to the rapid price increase and a slight decline in crude oil, the market procurement pace has slightly slowed down. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market has undergone horizontal consolidation, and downstream stocking enthusiasm has weakened. Currently, factories are shipping normally. The cost of aggregating MDI is mixed.
On the demand side, the demand side has started relatively slowly. With the arrival of winter in the north, the demand in the pipeline, spraying, and sheet metal industries has decreased compared to the previous period. The boosting power of the cold industry has not yet affected spot trading, and there has been an increase in attention within the market, but there is still a willingness to ship. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is influenced by bearish factors.
In the future market forecast, after the price increase, traders’ willingness to ship will increase, and the market atmosphere will be good. Business Society MDI analysts predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly slow to follow up.