According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of toluene has recently declined weakly (9.28-10.13). On October 13th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7810 yuan/ton, while on September 28th, the benchmark price was 8210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.87%.

International crude oil has significantly decreased compared to before the holiday, and toluene cost support has weakened

International crude oil has significantly decreased compared to before the holiday, weakening the cost support for toluene. As of October 12th, the WTI11 contract closed at $83.50 per barrel, with a settlement of 82.91 yuan per barrel; The Brent 12 contract closed at $86.28 per barrel and settled at $86.00 per barrel.

The demand for refined oil supports the domestic mixed blending market, which still has some support for toluene

Affected by the trend of crude oil, the diesel market prices have significantly decreased after the holiday. However, the operating load of outdoor infrastructure projects, industrial and mining industries has gradually increased, coupled with the support of agricultural autumn harvest demand, the demand side supports the domestic diesel market. As the weather turns cold and winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, the peak season of heating oil demand has begun, providing some support for the diesel market. Recently, the domestic diesel market price trend has slightly rebounded.

At the beginning of the holiday, gasoline was affected by the lower cost of crude oil prices, coupled with an increase in inventory in some refineries, resulting in a significant decline in the domestic gasoline market price trend. However, as some intermediaries returned after the holiday to replenish inventory, the production and sales rate of Shandong refineries exceeded 100%, and the domestic gasoline market price slightly increased with the trend.

Some PX operations have decreased, and toluene has a strong need for support, but it has weakened due to insufficient support

The international crude oil price has decreased compared to before the holiday, coupled with the decline in Asian market reports, the market for paraxylene has decreased compared to before the holiday. The operating rate of domestic PX devices has slightly decreased compared to the previous period, and the support for toluene has slightly weakened. It is understood that Guangdong Petrochemical’s 2.6 million ton/year PX device has dropped to around 50% since October,.

After the holiday, inventory increased and toluene supply pressure slightly increased

The production of toluene has been stable, and port inventory has increased. As of early October, the domestic toluene industry has started operating at around 7.4%; As of October 12th, the inventory of toluene in East China was 39000 tons, while the inventory of toluene in South China was 9000 tons.

Future forecast: International crude oil prices will fluctuate after the holiday, and there will still be support for the cost of toluene; Downstream products such as toluene and PX have just needed support for toluene, but their margins have weakened. In addition, with an increase in port inventory, it is expected that the toluene market will be weak and narrow in the short term.