According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the mixed xylene market rose first and then declined in September. On September 28th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 8490 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47% from 8450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; Compared to the monthly high of 8720 yuan/ton, it has decreased by 2.64%.
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The arbitrage space between Asia and the United States narrowed in the second half of the month, and the xylene market negotiated a decrease in prices
In late September, the demand for mixed blending in North America decreased, and the flow rate of a large amount of aromatic hydrocarbons from Japan, South Korea, and other regions slowed down, easing the tight supply pattern of aromatic hydrocarbons within Asia in the short term. The price of xylene in Asia slightly decreased, weakening the support for domestic prices. As of September 27, the price of isomeric grade toluene in Asia was between $1022 and $1023 per ton, slightly higher than the high point of $1004 to $1005 per ton at the beginning of the month and slightly lower than the high point of $1037 to $1038 per ton in the middle of the month.
Domestic inventory has slightly increased, but it is still at a low level. There is still support for the supply of xylene
The inventory of mixed xylene remains low and the supply of goods remains relatively tight, providing support for the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of late September, the inventory of xylene in East China was around 21000 tons; There are 10000 tons of waste in the mixed xylene warehouse in South China.
Strong cost support for xylene due to significant increase in crude oil
In the first half of the month, international crude oil futures surged, and WTI reached the $90 level for the first time this year. The main reason is that the expectation of supply tightening has overshadowed concerns about slowing economic growth and increasing US inventory. In the second half of the month, international crude oil prices slightly declined, and the Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates unchanged as expected by the market. However, the attitude was hawkish, and it is expected that there will still be a possibility of interest rate hikes within the year. Energy demand expectations will be suppressed, and oil prices will be under pressure. The EIA data at the end of the month was significantly positive, stimulating another surge in crude oil prices. Against the backdrop of reduced production, crude oil continued to be destocked and inventories remained at extremely low levels. Overall, the high international crude oil prices in September showed strong cost support for xylene.
PX starts to stabilize xylene and obtain just needed support
In September, the supply of paraxylene was relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. During the maintenance of some paraxylene units, there was little change in spot supply. The operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia was around 70%, and there was little change in PX supply in Asia. The price trend of the domestic paraxylene market has increased.
Weak demand for phthalic anhydride and weak support for xylene
In September, the prices of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, supported by the industrial chain, and the prices of adjacent benzene continued to rise. But with the high price of crude oil falling back, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and fell in late October, while plasticizer companies started at a low level, and the demand for phthalic anhydride was weak. As a result, the high price of phthalic anhydride in late October fell back.
Jinjiu’s demand for refined oil is improving, forming support for xylene in the domestic mixed blending market
In September, the diesel market price slightly increased, and the high temperature weather in China gradually subsided. The workload of outdoor infrastructure projects and other industries gradually increased. In addition, with the end of the fishing season, diesel demand increased, supporting the domestic diesel market. Foreign demand for diesel in Europe and America remained strong. As the weather turned cold and winter approached in the Northern Hemisphere, the peak season for heating oil demand began, and diesel export profits were considerable in the near future, The enthusiasm for diesel exports remains strong, providing strong support for the diesel market. Overall, the price trend in the domestic diesel market is rising.
On the one hand, domestic gasoline in September was strongly supported by the cost of crude oil, and on the other hand, it entered the peak season of consumption in Jinjiu. With the arrival of the Mid Autumn and National Day holidays, downstream merchants have increased their replenishment mentality, and refinery inventory has remained low. Most manufacturers may stock up in advance, which is a combination of positive factors. The domestic gasoline market is operating at a high level.
Future forecast: In the short term, supported by international crude oil and naphtha costs, domestic supply will still be tight, but downstream demand will weaken after a significant increase in prices. It is expected that mixed xylene will operate at a high level in the future. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the international crude oil price trend. If crude oil prices rise again, xylene prices will rise again supported by costs.
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