According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of the domestic heavy rare earth market has increased. On August 24, the rare earth index was 486 points, a decrease of 51.74% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 79.34% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The price trend of domestic dysprosium oxide, dysprosium iron alloy, and metal dysprosium has increased. As of the 25th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.43 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.40% this week; The price of dysprosium iron alloy is 2.395 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.27% this week; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.98 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.71% this week; The domestic price of terbium series is mainly increasing, with the domestic price of terbium oxide reaching 7.95 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium reaching 9.85 million yuan/ton.

Recently, the price trend in the heavy rare earth market has increased. Due to the impact of high temperatures and rainfall, some rare earth mining enterprises have limited production, and some rare earth manufacturers have voluntarily reduced production, which has led to a decrease in spot inventory in the market. Separation plants and metal plants in Sichuan region will have varying degrees of production reduction and shutdown behavior, and the rare earth market price trend will rise due to supply reduction. Although Myanmar has reopened its gates, the growth in import sources is limited, coupled with an increase in downstream procurement intentions, resulting in a slight increase in rare earth market transactions. Positive factors support the upward trend of domestic heavy rare earth prices.

According to statistics, in July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 805000 and 780000 units respectively, with a month on month increase of 2.8% in production and a month on month decrease of 3.2% in sales, with year-on-year growth of 30.6% and 31.6%, respectively. From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 4.591 million and 4.526 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 40% and 41.7%, respectively. The country is accelerating the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the entry of new energy vehicles into rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing the consumption potential of rural areas, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and increasing the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market prices.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export volume in July was 5425.6 tons; From January to July, the cumulative total export volume of rare earths from China was 31661.6 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%. The export volume of rare earth commodities from China increased, which to some extent supported the prices of the rare earth market.

Future Market Forecast: In the near future, the supply of rare earth production enterprises will gradually recover, and downstream demand will be mainly based on demand procurement. It is expected that the high price fluctuations in the heavy rare earth market will be the main trend in the short term. In the medium to long term, there will be a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, The global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.