1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of mixed xylene showed a “V” shaped trend this month. On June 1st, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7470 yuan/ton, while on June 30th, the price was 7340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74% compared to the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis and Review

In terms of crude oil, in the first half of the year, the United States House of Representatives passed the bill related to the Debt limit of the United States, and several officials of the Federal Reserve hinted that interest rate hikes would be suspended in June. Investors’ concerns about the economic outlook declined; There have been disagreements within OPEC+regarding the need for further production cuts. In addition to Saudi Arabia’s announcement of an additional 1 million barrels per day reduction in July, which is beneficial for oil prices, countries such as Russia, Iran, and Brazil have higher exports, which weakens the effectiveness of OPEC’s production cuts; The IEA predicts that oil supply will continue to be tight next year, especially in the second half of 2024.

In the second half of the year, the Federal Reserve suspended interest rate hikes in June, which met expectations. There is still a possibility of interest rate hikes in July, and market risks remain; China and India in the Asian region have driven oil demand growth of over 2 million barrels per day, easing concerns about economic recession in Europe and America; On the 24th, the “24-hour mutiny” by Russian mercenary Wagner sparked global attention, and the Wagner incident intensified concerns in the international crude oil market about the stability of Russian oil exports; Following the Wagner incident, the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensified; On the evening of the 28th, EIA commercial crude oil inventory significantly decreased, with a decrease of 9.6 million barrels, exceeding market expectations. US crude oil exports increased significantly, boosting international oil prices.

The crude oil price fluctuated and fluctuated in June. On June 30th, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil by the trading company was 69.56 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.14% compared to the beginning of this month (69.46 US dollars per barrel); The benchmark price of Brent crude oil is 74.24 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.72% compared to the beginning of this month (73.71 US dollars per barrel).

Downstream, the overall domestic PX price remained stable this month, with a slight increase at the end of the month. On June 1st, the benchmark price of PX was 8200 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, the price was 8250 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.61%. The supply of PX was normal in June, and the demand for oil transfer in Europe and America has rebounded since June. The price of raw material MX has been strong, boosting market sentiment. The operating rate of domestic PX is over 70%, but there is little change in spot supply during the maintenance of some PX devices, and PX prices have slightly increased.

In terms of OX, the price of OX has remained stable this month, with a price of 8100 yuan/ton as of June 1st and 8100 yuan/ton as of June 30th, showing no change compared to the beginning of the month. The downstream phthalic anhydride market of OX is stabilizing, while the downstream plasticizer market is declining. Demand is mainly in demand, and the overall upward momentum of the adjacent benzene market is weakening. There is still downward pressure, and the adjacent benzene market will temporarily stabilize in the future.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices have fluctuated this month. On June 1st, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8409.0/ton, and on June 30th, the price was 8468.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 59.6 yuan/ton or 0.71% compared to the beginning of the month. The use of oil for car air conditioners in summer has increased, and during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the radius and frequency of private car travel have increased, leading to an increase in gasoline market demand and an increase in oil prices; Operators maintain a cautious attitude towards replenishment, and market transactions are just in need