In June, the market of Polybutadiene was weak and consolidated. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 26, the market price of Polybutadiene in East China was 10330 yuan/ton, down 0.86% slightly from 10420 at the beginning of the month, and the peak in the cycle was 10470 yuan/ton. The price of raw butadiene fell sharply, and the cost of Polybutadiene fell sharply; In June, the construction of downstream tire factories declined slightly, and Polybutadiene just needed support, but it was weaker than in the early stage; In June, the ex factory price of two barrels of oil Polybutadiene has remained stable since it was reduced by 300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of June 26, the ex factory price of Daqing cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company was 9900 yuan/ton, and the domestic offer range of Polybutadiene was 9700 yuan/ton to 10500 yuan/ton.

Supply side: In June, the Shunding device restarted and stopped simultaneously, with overall construction slightly higher than in the early stage; In early June, a total of 220000 tons/year units from Yanshan Petrochemical and Shandong Yihua were restarted and put into normal operation; In addition, the 160000 t/a Polybutadiene plant of Daqing Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance since June 10.

Cost: In June, the price of butadiene fell sharply, and the cost of Polybutadiene fell sharply. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 26th, the price of butadiene was 5873 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.17% from 6612 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The natural rubber market rose slightly in June, slightly supporting Polybutadiene. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 26th, the price was 11850 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.16% from 11600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: The tire operating rate slightly decreased in June, which has a strong demand for rubber support but has weakened compared to the previous period. It is understood that as of late May 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 5.9%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 70%.

Future market forecast: business community analysts believe that the price of raw materials has declined significantly, the supply side is still under pressure, and the downstream construction has declined slightly. The Polybutadiene rubber industry chain showed a weak performance in June. It is expected that the Polybutadiene market will continue its weak consolidation trend in the short term.