1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 28, the average ex-factory price of domestic local refined hydrotreated naphtha was 8221.50 yuan/ton, up 5.05% from 7826.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the local refined hydrotreated naphtha was surging.

According to the latest monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 28, the average ex-factory price of domestic straight-run naphtha mainstream was 8136.50 yuan/ton, up 5.96% from 7679.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the local straight-run naphtha fluctuated.

The naphtha commodity index on February 28 was 101.47, up 0.31 points from yesterday, down 16.58% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and up 140.22% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: The price of local refined naphtha rose as a whole in February. At present, the mainstream price of local refined hydrotreated naphtha is about 8200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of straight-run naphtha is about 8100 yuan/ton. The local refining and reforming company just needs replenishment to support the market, mainly needs procurement, and the refinery is active in shipment. As of the week of February 22, Singapore’s fuel inventory increased by 1.915 million barrels to a four-month high of 22.641 million barrels; Light distillate oil inventory decreased by 2.04 million barrels to an 8-week low of 15.578 million barrels; Medium distillate oil inventory increased by 526000 barrels to a three-week high of 8211000 barrels.

Upstream: The trend of international crude oil prices in February was volatile. On the macro level, the inflation level in the United States remained high, and the economic data was strong. The month-on-month rise in inflation data in January made the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate increase continue to rise. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its first meeting in 2023. As soon as the news came out, the oil market fell sharply at the end of the day. The minutes showed that the probability of further interest rate increase was increased, and the stubbornness of inflation and the long-term trend of inflation made the interest rate reduction at the end of the year almost impossible, which led to the pressure on the prices of risky assets such as crude oil. The western developed economies are suffering from inflation and are still in the expected channel of economic recession. It is difficult for oil demand to improve in the medium and long term. It can also be seen from the EIA inventory data that the super accumulation of gasoline and refined oil makes market participants uneasy, especially the news that the United States has released its crude oil reserves again is also negative for the oil market. However, the rising demand in Asia has played a certain role in supporting the international oil price, and Russia’s production reduction in March is expected to boost the oil price.

Downstream: the price of toluene in February continued to decline from January to July, and rose in a stepwise manner after the 7th. The price of toluene was 7070 yuan/ton on February 1 and 7250 yuan/ton on February 28, up 180 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, or 2.54%. The price of mixed xylene fluctuated in February and tended to be stable in the later period. The price was 7380 yuan/ton on February 1 and 7370 yuan/ton on February 28, down 0.14% from the beginning of the month. The price trend of paraxylene in February was temporarily stable. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex-factory price of paraxylene was 8500 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the energy analysts of the Business News Agency, the international crude oil market in February fell sharply, the naphtha cost support was limited, and the local refining naphtha terminal reorganization just needed replenishment to boost the naphtha market. Refineries were actively pushing up, and middlemen were mostly wait-and-see. It was expected that the local refining naphtha might be sorted out in the near future.