Price trend

In February, the domestic EVA market rose sideways, and the spot price rose in the first half of the month. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 27, the average ex-factory price of domestic EVA was 16166.67 yuan/ton, up 9.23% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Raw materials:

In February, the market for ethylene at the raw material end was stronger. At the beginning of the month, the equipment of major Southeast Asian plants was shut down for maintenance. The market supply volume was generally reduced, and the supplier’s mentality was strong. Domestic demand for ethylene has increased due to the impact of new projects, and downstream users have increased their purchase volume after the holiday. Although the momentum has gradually slowed down, the overall price of ethylene has risen due to the impact of the external market boost. The resumption of domestic downstream plants of vinyl acetate has lagged behind, and the delivery of new capacity has been successful, so the supply pressure has increased. However, the supply of goods on the market is generally small, and the spot price is stable and small in the month. In terms of raw materials, there was a certain support for the EVA market in February.

Supply:

In February, the load of domestic EVA production enterprises was stable at a high level in the first half of the month, and the industry operating rate reached 91%. It began to decline gradually in the middle of the month, and the industry operating rate fell to 80.1% by the end of the month. In the month, the market supply is generally stable, the factory inventory pressure is low, and the supplier has some support for the spot goods. The manufacturer’s ex-factory price rose and then stagnated, and the auction source price first rose and then fell in a narrow range. Spot prices of mainstream brands generally rose by about 1000 yuan/ton.

Demand:

At the beginning of February, EVA demand was affected by the rebound of market momentum after the holiday. At the same time, there is a certain amount of raw material inventory in the main downstream that needs to be digested before the festival. The good delivery volume is gradually exhausted, and the supply and demand balance is basically reached by the middle of the month. On the other hand, the demand for photovoltaic materials and foaming materials is also differentiated. The foam shoe materials sold in the month were flat and lagged behind. The first measurement of photovoltaic materials is the combination of reality and expectation, which is the main force supporting the demand side this month.

Aftermarket forecast

In general, the EVA market in February rose sharply in the first half of the month, and the market was balanced in the second half of the month. The market of raw materials is generally strong, supporting the EVA spot. The demand of downstream enterprises has gradually stabilized, and the replenishment is mainly to follow up the demand. EVA polymerization plant has low inventory and firm ex-factory price. After the merchants make profits, there are some narrow margin profit transfer operations. It is expected that the domestic EVA market will continue the market balance pattern in the short term and the market will be stable.