Domestic price trend of paraxylene:

It can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart that the price trend of this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the domestic ex-factory price of p-xylene was 8500 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 6.25%.

The domestic paraxylene supply is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is about 70%. The external dependence of PX products is about 29%. The recent price trend of PX external market is volatile. As of the 23rd, the closing price of the Asian paraxylene market is 993-995 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1018-1020 dollars/ton CFR China. The low external price is negative for the domestic market. The recent operating rate of PX devices in Asia is normal. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene devices in Asia is about 60%, and the price trend of the domestic paraxylene market is temporarily stable.

The price of crude oil fell this week. As of the 23rd, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $75.39/barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in April was US $82.21/barrel. On the macro level, the inflation level in the United States remains high, the economic data is strong, and the month-on-month rise in inflation data in January makes the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate increase continue to rise. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its first meeting in 2023. As soon as the news came out, the oil market fell sharply at the end of the day. The minutes showed that the probability of further interest rate increase was increased, and the stubbornness of inflation and the long-term trend of inflation made the interest rate reduction at the end of the year almost impossible, which led to the pressure on the prices of risky assets such as crude oil. The western developed economies are suffering from inflation and are still in the expected channel of economic recession. It is difficult for oil demand to improve in the medium and long term. It can also be seen from the EIA inventory data that the super accumulation of gasoline and refined oil makes market participants uneasy, especially the news of the release of crude oil reserves in the United States is also negative for the oil market, and the domestic paraxylene market price is temporarily stable due to the decline of crude oil price.

The price trend of the downstream PTA market rose this week. As of the 24th, the average price of the PTA market was 5600-5650 yuan/ton, up 1.71%. In terms of PTA supply, PTA starts fell this week. At present, the industry starts at about 72%. PTA plant production reduction and maintenance helped the PTA spot market rise. The improvement of market sentiment led to a significant increase in the enthusiasm of terminal inquiry, and the improvement of PTA supply and demand margin. Many downstream polyester enterprises are still actively resuming work, the operating rate is in the process of gradual improvement, and the consumption of PTA is rising. In terms of terminal weaving, the operating rate is also in the process of seasonal increase. As of February 23, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has increased to more than 67%. On the whole, the downstream market has recovered slowly and the price trend of paraxylene is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst at the Business Agency, believes that the current oil market is playing a long and short game, and the recovery of demand in Asia has brought some benefits, but the risk of economic recession in Europe and the United States still exists, and the oil market will still face fundamental pressure in the future. The terminal downstream operating rate will rise, the downstream demand is expected to rise, and the PX market supply is normal. It is expected that the market price of paraxylene will rise slightly in the future.