According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of April 24, 2024, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 8283 yuan/ton. Compared with April 17, 2024 (reference price of butanone was 8200 yuan/ton), the price increased by 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.02%.

Looking back at the mid April period, the domestic butanone market saw a significant increase. After entering late April, the domestic butanone market as a whole continued to move upwards. On the 22nd and 23rd, the domestic butanone market prices continued to adjust upwards, with an adjustment range of about 50-100 yuan/ton. As of the 24th, the domestic market price of butanone is based on around 8150-8500 yuan/ton.

Fundamental analysis

In terms of demand: Currently, the trading atmosphere on the exchange is quiet and mild, with downstream new orders mainly being cautious purchases for first-time needs. The overall support for the butanone market from the demand side is average.

In terms of cost: As April approaches, the carbon tetracarbon market for butanone raw material ether continues to rise, and the support provided by the cost side to butanone gradually strengthens. The overall trend of the butanone market is more obvious with the “original” upward trend.

Supply side: Currently, some butanone factories are executing preliminary orders, and the overall supply pressure on the butanone field is relatively low. The supply side provides certain support to the market situation.

Market analysis of butanone

At present, the butanone factory is mainly supported by cost support and relatively low supply pressure, maintaining a strong operation. However, the overall downstream demand for butanone has generally boosted, and the downstream market is still cautious in purchasing raw materials. Business Society butanone data analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly adjust its operation range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 23, the average market price of monoethanolamine was 10500 yuan/ton, and on April 15, the average market price of monoethanolamine was 10620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.13% from last week.

In terms of cost:

Recently, the market for ethylene oxide has been fluctuating continuously, with mainstream prices showing a strong upward trend. Currently, ethylene oxide is showing a trapezoidal upward trend. According to data from Business Society, as of April 19th, the average market price of ethylene oxide in China is 7000 yuan/ton; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6900-7000 yuan/ton for external transactions; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 7000 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in North China is 7000 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the central China market is 7000 yuan/ton.

From the industrial chain diagram, ethanolamine, as a downstream product of ethylene oxide, accounts for 11%. Recently, the production enterprises of ethanolamine have been stable, with moderate profit levels and no significant fluctuations. Due to its wide range of uses, monoethanolamine has been applied in various fields such as textiles, printing and dyeing, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, etc. Therefore, its market demand is relatively stable and there has been no significant growth point.

On April 23rd, the standard price of liquid amino in Shengyishe was 2883.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -13.24% compared to the beginning of this month (3323.33 yuan/ton). The main reason is that the maintenance equipment has resumed work one after another, the supply side has shown loose performance, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, the peak season for agricultural demand procurement is approaching, industrial demand remains in high demand, and the sluggish demand side has suppressed the price of liquid ammonia.

Weak terminal demand:

As an important organic chemical raw material, monoethanolamine has a wide and diverse range of application scenarios on the demand side. In the chemical industry, monoethanolamine is a key intermediate in the synthesis of important compounds such as ethylenediamine and N, N-dimethylethanolamine, which is of great significance for the construction of basic chemical products such as resins, solvents, and coatings. In the textile industry, monoethanolamine is used as a solvent for the production of reactive dyes and pigments, playing an irreplaceable role in improving dyeing quality and efficiency. Meanwhile, in the papermaking industry, monoethanolamine is also used as a paper sizing agent and pigment dispersant.

However, the downstream demand for monoethanolamine is currently average and has not shown a significant growth trend. This is mainly because the market has become saturated, and the growth rate of downstream industries is gradually slowing down, which brings certain pressure to the growth of demand for monoethanolamine. In addition, some downstream industries are subject to certain restrictions on production activities under the influence of environmental policies, which also has a negative impact on the demand for monoethanolamine.

Overall

It is expected that the price of monoethanolamine will remain stable in the short term and there will be no significant breakthrough. For production enterprises, they should pay attention to market dynamics, arrange production plans reasonably, control costs, improve product quality, and respond to possible market changes.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the toluene market has recently seen a slight increase and has been consolidating and running. On April 22nd, the benchmark price of toluene was 7770 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.78% from 7710 yuan/ton on April 15th.

International crude oil fluctuates and falls, toluene cost support weakens

Recently (4.15-4.22), due to the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, weakened demand expectations, and the suppression of conflict risk premiums, international crude oil prices have fluctuated and fallen, weakening support for the cost of toluene. As of April 19th, WTI06 contract settlement is 82.22 USD/barrel; Brent 06 contract settlement is $87.29 per barrel. The price of toluene in Asia has fluctuated at a high level, with CFR China’s toluene price at $940 per ton as of April 22 and May.

The production of xylene has significantly decreased, and the demand for toluene has weakened

The starting price of xylene has dropped to a high level, and PX units such as Urumqi Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Ningbo Zhongjin have successively shut down for maintenance. Domestic PX production has significantly decreased, and as of April 22, PX production has slightly decreased to around 70%. The price of PX in the Asian outer market has slightly decreased, which still provides some support for the domestic PX market. As of April 22, the closing price in the Asian region was 1026 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1051 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for toluene mixed blending is weak. As of April 18th, the operating rate of refineries nationwide has remained around 70%.

Maintaining high levels of port inventory puts certain pressure on the toluene market

Domestic toluene port inventory remains high, with East China toluene inventory at 75000 tons and South China toluene inventory at 5000 tons as of April 18th.

There are still plans for equipment maintenance in the later stage, and it is expected that the supply of toluene will decrease

The Jin’ao Technology reforming unit was shut down for maintenance in April, and toluene was sold without quantity; Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics were shut down for maintenance on April 7th. There are still maintenance plans for the equipment in May and June in the later period, and overall, the expected decline in the supply of toluene in the later period provides some support for the toluene market.

Future Market Forecast:

From a technical perspective, the toluene index chart of Business Society shows that the 7-day moving average has been above the 30 day moving average since the beginning of the year and is showing an upward trend. During this period, the price of toluene gradually increased; At present, the 7-day moving average is still operating above the 30 day moving average, and the toluene market is still supported by the 30 day moving average in the short term.

From a fundamental perspective, currently international crude oil prices are fluctuating and falling, with the cost center of toluene shifting downwards; Secondly, the demand for downstream oil adjustment and disproportionation reaction is lower than expected; The maintenance plan for the toluene plant in the near future will to some extent alleviate the pressure on the toluene supply side. It is expected that the toluene market may slightly weaken in the later stage.

The acrylic acid market is generally stable this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 19th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 6825.00 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to Monday’s price.

Cost side:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price for propylene on April 18th was 6914.60, an increase of 0.96% compared to April 1st (6848.60). Recently, the propylene raw material market has been operating strongly, and costs have increased in the face of support from the acrylic acid market.

Supply and demand side:

Recently, the overall operating rate of the industry has improved compared to the previous period, but there is still support from the supply side. Most production enterprises have reported stable market trends, while dealers mainly follow the market and ship according to market conditions. Downstream buyers have chosen to follow suit with a moderate amount of low demand. The market mentality is cautious, and the transaction atmosphere is average.

Future Market Forecast:

The acrylic acid analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, cost and supply side support may continue, but the wait-and-see sentiment of end users is obvious, and downstream demand is average. Be cautious when buying on dips in the market, and it is expected that the acrylic acid market may remain stagnant in the short term. More attention should be paid to downstream pre holiday stocking demand.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 18th, the average market price of benzoic acid was 9100 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.74% compared to last week.

In terms of cost

Mixed xylene: The price of mixed xylene in China has slightly increased this week. On April 18th, the price of mixed xylene was 7390 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38% compared to last week. Under the resonance of multiple factors, the overall high volatility of international crude oil still provides some support for the cost of mixed xylene. The high volatility of mixed xylene prices in Asia provides support for the domestic market.

Acetic acid: The domestic price of acetic acid has increased this week. On April 18th, the price of acetic acid was 3450 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.03% compared to last week. Since April, the price of acetic acid has shown a strong upward trend. Due to the low price of acetic acid at the end of March, some downstream buyers have increased their intention to purchase at a lower price. Acetic acid manufacturers have smooth shipments, reduced inventory pressure, and a positive trading atmosphere in the market. Acetic acid continues to rise.

In terms of demand

The current production of downstream polyester has climbed to a high level around 88%, and the room for improvement is relatively limited. Dyes, pesticide intermediates, and other products are in high demand for customers to purchase, and downstream trading is not active.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the cost side is expected to remain strong, domestic factories are operating steadily, and the quotes from holders are temporarily stable. There is strong bullish sentiment on the market, and actual transactions are limited. The price of isophthalic acid needs to pay attention to changes in cost and downstream demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 17th, the average quoted price of polyethylene glycol 400 by enterprises was 7750.00 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to last Wednesday (April 10th).

Recently, the polyethylene glycol market has remained stable. The raw material epoxyethane operates stably, with strong cost support. The downstream pharmaceutical and daily chemical industries have relatively stable demand. In downstream textile and other industries, customers mainly purchase on demand, while holders maintain a wait-and-see operation and ship according to market conditions. On April 17th, in the South China market, some imported PEG400 prices were quoted between 7800-8000 yuan/ton.

Upstream ethylene oxide: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of ethylene oxide on April 16th was 7000.00, which is the same as April 1st. Recently, ethylene oxide has been operating steadily at high levels. At present, the utilization rate of ethylene oxide production capacity is around 60%, and the demand is average. The current support for the polyethylene glycol market is still strong.

Upstream ethylene glycol: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of ethylene glycol on April 16th was 4485.00, a decrease of 0.63% compared to April 1st (4513.33), which provides moderate support for the polyethylene glycol market.

The polyethylene glycol analyst from Shengyishe believes that the current cost side is stable at a high level, and the market trades on demand. It is expected that the fluctuation of polyethylene glycol prices may be limited in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the toluene market has continued to rise in recent days (4.1-4.15). On April 15th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7710 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.05% from 7410 yuan/ton on April 1st.

International crude oil and high-level operation of toluene in foreign markets receive certain support

Recently (4.1-4.15), under the resonance of multiple factors, international crude oil has fluctuated at a high level, which still provides some support for the cost of toluene. As of April 15th, WTI05 contract settlement is $85.41 per barrel; Brent 06 contract settlement is $90.10 per barrel. The continued rise in Asian toluene prices provides support for the domestic market, with CFR China LC90 day toluene prices at $951 per ton as of April 15th.

The production of xylene has slightly decreased, and toluene still needs support

The prices for parking and maintenance of some domestic devices have been adjusted to a high level, and as of April 15th, the PX production has slightly decreased to around 780%. The PX price in the Asian outer market continues to rise, providing some support for the domestic market. As of April 15th, the closing price in the Asian region was 1030 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1055 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

The domestic mixed blending market has recovered slowly, and the demand for toluene mixed blending has weakened. As of mid April, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 7.0.

Maintaining high levels of port inventory puts certain pressure on the toluene market

Domestic toluene port inventory remains at a high level, with East China toluene inventory at 76000 tons and South China toluene inventory at 8000 tons as of April 11th.

There are still plans for equipment maintenance in the later stage, and it is expected that the supply of toluene will decrease

The Jin’ao Technology reforming unit was shut down for maintenance in April, and toluene was sold without quantity; Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics were shut down for maintenance on April 7th. There are still maintenance plans for the equipment in May and June in the later period, and overall, the expected decline in the supply of toluene in the later period provides some support for the toluene market.

Future Market Forecast:

From a technical perspective, the toluene index chart of Business Society shows that the 7-day moving average has been above the 30 day moving average since the beginning of the year and is showing an upward trend. During this period, the price of toluene gradually increased; At present, the 7-day moving average is still above the 30 day moving average, and it is expected that there will be strong support for toluene prices in the short term.

From a fundamental perspective, currently international crude oil prices are fluctuating at high levels, and there is still support for the cost of toluene; Secondly, the recovery of demand in some downstream industries is slow, and the support for rigid demand is weak; In the near future, there is a maintenance plan for the toluene plant, and the supply of toluene is expected to continue to decline. It is expected that the toluene market will maintain a high level of operation in the later stage.

This week, the lead market (4.8-4.15) fell first and then rose, with overall narrow fluctuations. The average price in the domestic market was 16415 yuan/ton last week, and 16515 yuan/ton this week, up 0.61%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the range of fluctuations, and the overall market trend has been stable, moderate, and strong in recent times. The lead ingot market has had relatively small fluctuations in recent times.

This week, the lead ingot market continued to maintain a off-season trend, with the market mainly following the narrow fluctuations of the futures market. The trend in this cycle fell first and then rose. Limited fluctuations. From a supply perspective, the domestic lead concentrate market still has a tight supply. The native lead enterprise has recently undergone maintenance and has not resumed work as of now, resulting in a slightly tight supply of native lead. Most companies in the field of recycled lead resumed work within the month, and the production of recycled lead rebounded, offsetting the decline in production caused by the reduction in primary lead production. Overall, the production of lead ingots has remained stable in the near future. From April to May, it is a low season for downstream battery companies in terms of demand. Battery companies have started production relatively low, and their intention to purchase raw materials such as lead ingots is also weak. Overall, they will maintain a focus on replenishing essential inventory. Overall, the supply of lead ingots is relatively stable. In terms of demand, it is in a seasonal off-season. The recent changes in supply and demand have been limited, and the market is operating weakly, but overall fluctuations are not significant. It is expected that the market will continue to experience narrow fluctuations in the short term.

Industry data:

On April 14th, the base metal index was 1269 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 21.47% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 97.66% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On April 14th, the non-ferrous index was 1186 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 22.89% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 95.39% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 15th week of 2024 (4.8-4.12), there were a total of 11 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 2 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were tin (5.64%), zinc (5.22%), and silver (4.32%). There are a total of 9 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are dysprosium oxide (-1.96%), praseodymium metal (-1.89%), and praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.28%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.64%.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, nickel prices rose first and then fell this week. As of April 12th, the spot nickel quotation was 138516.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.58% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 27.18%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have fallen by 4 and risen by 7 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight increase in nickel prices recently.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

As shown in the above figure, LME nickel inventory has slightly decreased recently, with 75252 tons of LME nickel inventory as of the weekend, a decrease of 2.46% compared to the beginning of the week.

On a macro level, the March inflation reported by the United States exceeded expectations, crushing market expectations for a rate cut in June, leading to an increase in risk aversion. At the same time, the strength of the US dollar further released bearish pressure. The weak inflation data of Chinese consumers has dampened the optimistic sentiment in the market. Due to the continued sluggish consumer demand in March and overall sufficient market supply, the national PPI decreased by 0.1% month on month, which has narrowed compared to the previous month; A year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, with a slight expansion in the decline. At the same time, the month on month CPI also showed a seasonal decline, with a slight decline in year-on-year growth, which to some extent brought uncertainty to the outlook for metal demand.

In terms of supply: During the Eid al Fitr holiday in Indonesia this week, some smelters will take turns. Due to scheduling factors at the small K port, the arrival time of externally mined nickel ore has been delayed. The approval process for Indonesian nickel mine RKAB is accelerating, and nickel supply is slowly recovering with the end of the rainy season. Inventory is rising, and prices are starting to decline, weakening cost support for nickel iron and stainless steel. The price of nickel sulfate has slightly decreased.

In terms of demand, stainless steel is experiencing a dynamic decline in cost support due to the decrease in nickel iron prices, leading to a seasonal decline in inventory. The current loss of stainless steel may lead to a reduction in production by steel mills in the future. In terms of new energy, the domestic flow of intermediate products in Indonesia has decreased, and the supply of nickel sulfate raw materials is tight. At the same time, the month on month growth of ternary production has driven the demand for nickel.

In summary, the US inflation data exceeded expectations, weakening market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, and the US dollar index surged to a new high since November last year. The trend of non-ferrous metal market is under pressure. The pattern of nickel surplus remains unchanged, with no new demand growth points, and it is expected that nickel prices will mainly operate weakly in the short term.

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of soda ash was weak in early April. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 1940 yuan/ton. On April 11th, the average market price was 1900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06%, a decrease of 30.15% compared to the same period last year. Since the beginning of 2024, the price of soda ash has been showing a weak trend, with a decline of 31.9% from the beginning of the year to the present.

Domestic soda ash price trend:

From a supply perspective: This week, the operating rate of domestic soda ash decreased to 83.50%, resulting in a decrease in supply of goods and a decrease in inventory of some manufacturers. Recently, some soda ash plants have undergone maintenance, resulting in a slight relief in supply pressure. However, as of April 11, 2024, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers this week was 912500 tons, compared to the previous period’s data of 916800 tons, a decrease of 0.47%. Among them, there are 365500 tons of light inventory and 547000 tons of heavy inventory. Currently, it appears that soda ash enterprises are still experiencing inventory accumulation, which is suppressing the mentality of the soda ash market, and the price of soda ash may fluctuate.

From a demand perspective: the glass sector is operating weakly. At the beginning of April, the average market price was 18.55 yuan/ton. On April 11th, the average market price was 18.76 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.13%, a decrease of 7.95% compared to the same period last year. There is a replenishment plan for the downstream of the glass section, but the overall demand remains stable. Downstream quotations have stabilized recently, but transaction performance has been weak.

From the perspective of profit: With the decline of soda ash prices, production profit has significantly declined, at a low level in the past three years. As of April 5th, the production profit of domestic ammonia alkali enterprises was 336.16 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.9% month on month and a decrease of 68.55% year on year; The production profit of the joint production enterprise was 514.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.05% month on month and 72.2% year-on-year. Although the profit of soda ash has significantly declined, soda ash enterprises still have profits and there is currently no large-scale maintenance plan announced.

From a technical perspective, the price of soda ash may continue to fluctuate weakly in the market. Since December 31, 2023, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. On April 7, 2024, it is estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 7-day moving average above the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 27.31%.

Soda ash is at a low level of one year, two years, and three years. According to the commodity analysis system, the average value of soda ash in the past year is 2407.78 yuan/ton, with a median value of 2495 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 1900 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 3090 yuan/ton. The low price difference (compared to the lowest historical price difference in the past year) is 0 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest historical price difference in the past year) is -1190 yuan/ton.

Business Society analysts believe that according to the Business Society’s product analysis system, some soda ash units have undergone maintenance recently, resulting in a decline in production. However, the inventory of enterprises remains high, with downstream on-demand procurement being the main focus, and the purchasing sentiment is not positive, resulting in insufficient driving force for the overall price increase of soda ash. It is expected that the price of caustic soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.