1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride remained stable this week (5.20-24), with little price change compared to the previous weekend. As of the end of this week, the price of potassium chloride was quoted at 2516 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic price of potassium chloride has not changed much, and the market has remained calm, with prices still in the process of consolidation. In terms of imports, the price of 60% potassium chloride is mostly between 2200-2500 yuan/ton. Due to the previous level of arrivals this month, the domestic market has shown a basic balance between supply and demand, and there has been no surplus situation in the market. The price remains rigid and strong. The quotations from major domestic manufacturers for salt lakes have not changed much, with prices reduced by 10 yuan/ton compared to last week, and domestic demand remains relatively sluggish.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, there has been a slight improvement in the downstream potassium fertilizer market, with prices of major products rebounding. The market price of potassium carbonate has slightly declined this week, rising from 7250 yuan/ton last weekend to 7290 yuan/ton this weekend, an increase of 0.55%. The potassium nitrate market continues to rise, with an increase of 2.51%. The price has risen from 4975 yuan/ton last weekend to 5100 yuan/ton this weekend. Overall, the downstream market situation of potassium chloride has slightly improved, and it is expected to have a certain positive effect on upstream potassium chloride in the later stage. However, considering that the prices of potassium chloride production enterprises are currently mostly unchanged, it is also necessary to be cautious about the later market situation.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to a potassium chloride data analyst from Business Society, the potassium chloride market was mainly stable in early June. This week, the salt lake quotation slightly decreased, and the domestic market supply and demand were weakly balanced. It is expected that potassium chloride will not have much upward momentum.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 24th, the average price of white oil in the market was 8466 yuan/ton. On May 17th, the average price of white oil in the market was 8483 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2%.

In terms of cost

Crude oil has been falling for four consecutive trading days, WTI crude oil fell to a nearly three-month low. The main reason is that the high interest rate environment in the United States has brought pressure to demand, and in addition, US inventory data is bearish and geopolitical risk premiums are decreasing.

In terms of supply and demand

On the supply side, the supply from upstream refineries has slightly decreased. Light white oil manufacturers have made price adjustments to individual models this week. On the demand side, the market transaction atmosphere is sluggish, and downstream low-priced rigid demand procurement is the main focus.

Future Market Forecast

At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is sluggish, and it is expected that the white oil market will undergo weak consolidation and adjustment. Suggest paying attention to the adjustment of upstream oil prices.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has been fluctuating and consolidating recently. At the beginning of this week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4875.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4875.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.51%, a month on month increase of 1.55%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.00%.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is on the rise. On the cost side, the available resources at ports are gradually decreasing, especially due to the tight supply of some high-quality chemical coal. In addition, the market still has expectations for the upcoming peak season, and traders have a strong sentiment of price support. In mid month, most coal mines maintained normal production status, mainly focusing on fulfilling long-term agreements, and the coal supply was relatively stable. With the rise in temperature and the demand for electricity, downstream power plants may gradually replenish their warehouses, providing some support for coal prices. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

Recently, the methanol market has been fluctuating at a high level, and cost support is still acceptable. Polyformaldehyde production is normal, and polyformaldehyde analysts at Business Society predict that prices may slightly increase.

Recently (5.13-5.22), the trichloromethane market in Shandong Province has seen a narrow consolidation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 22, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2770 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% from 2750 yuan/ton on May 13. The price of raw material methanol has significantly increased, while the price of liquid chlorine has slightly decreased, and the cost of trichloromethane continues to support. Downstream production remains low, while terminal procurement performance is mediocre; The market for trichloromethane has seen a narrow consolidation.

Recently (from May 13th to May 22nd), some equipment loads have increased, and the overall production of methane chloride in China has slightly increased to around 7.3%.

Recently (5.13-5.22), methanol prices have significantly increased, while liquid chlorine prices have slightly decreased, and the cost of trichloromethane continues to support. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 22, the spot price of methanol was 2900 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.41% from 2700 yuan/ton on May 13. As of May 22nd, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 300 yuan/ton, which is lower than the 500 yuan/ton in early May.

Recently (5.13-5.22), the price of downstream refrigerant R22 has risen and started production at a low level, providing weak support for the demand for trichloromethane.

Business Society methane chloride data analyst believes that the cost of trichloromethane continues to support; The downstream refrigerant industry is operating at a low level, with limited support for the demand for trichloromethane. As the downstream peak season gradually ends, it is expected that the trichloromethane market will be weak and mainly consolidating in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 21st, the average price of epoxy propane in the domestic market is referenced at 9225.00 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to last Friday’s price.

Recently, the epoxy propane market has been stagnant and wait-and-see. Recently, the price of propylene raw material has slightly increased, while the price of liquid chlorine raw material is narrow and weak, with average cost support. Part of the equipment on the supply side fluctuates, and inventory pressure is temporarily controllable, supporting the mentality of the industry. However, downstream customers have a strong cautious and wait-and-see attitude towards high-level delivery, and they follow up with the demand in moderation. Holders mainly ship according to the market.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price for propylene on May 20th was 6788.60, a decrease of 0.18% compared to May 1st (6800.60).

Future Market Forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that short-term cost support may be limited, and supply side pressure is not significant for the time being. However, under the expectation of incremental growth, downstream wait-and-see sentiment is gradually increasing. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market may remain stagnant and operate on a wait-and-see basis, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

This week, the lead market (5.13-5.20) has shown an overall upward trend, with the average domestic market price last week at 17790 yuan/ton and this week at 18540 yuan/ton, up 4.22%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall, and the overall market trend has been stable, moderate, and strong in recent times. The lead ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

Macro: The US non farm payroll data in April fell short of expectations, and the softening of consumer prices in April boosted market expectations. The Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September this year, with two cuts throughout the year, and the market has regained its expectation of a rate cut. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States announced on Thursday exceeded expectations and rebounded, reaching a new high since August 2023. The US dollar index closed last Friday with a weekly decline of 0.79%. The US dollar weakened, and the non-ferrous metal sector rebounded.

Supply: The supply at the mining end is still tight, with local lead enterprises resuming work and undergoing maintenance in the near future, and local lead enterprises operating at a low rate; The difficulty in purchasing raw materials for recycled lead enterprises has led to a decline in operating rates and a tight supply of recycled lead. Due to the impact of raw material supply, the expected supply of lead ingots in the near future is tight.

Demand: May is the seasonal off-season for battery companies, and they are still actively digesting existing inventory. Due to the high rise in raw material prices, battery companies are currently under significant cost pressure and operating at a low level.

Future outlook: Overall, the macro market atmosphere is currently warm, with the nonferrous metal market generally rising and lead prices following the overall upward trend. The lead ingot market has been affected by multiple factors, and the supply has been tight recently. With the dual benefits of macro and supply constraints, lead prices will continue to remain strong in the short term.

Industry data:

On May 19th, the base metal index was 1359 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 15.90% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 111.68% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On May 19th, the non-ferrous index was 1242 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 19.25% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 104.61% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 20th week of 2024 (5.13-5.17), there were a total of 12 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 4 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 16% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase are antimony (12.80%), tin (5.35%), and aluminum oxide (5.07%). There are a total of 8 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with a decline are dysprosium oxide (-4.20%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.83%), and dysprosium iron alloy (-1.69%). The average increase and decrease this week is 1.23%.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 17th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3800 yuan/ton, and on May 10th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3616 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.07% compared to last week.

In terms of cost

Before the mine fully resumes production, the supply of alumina will be restricted, which provides support for prices.

In terms of supply and demand

At present, the profitability level of aluminum plants is generally good. In the context of scarce raw material ores, aluminum plants have the ability to transfer some profits to aluminum oxide plants to ensure the stability of raw material supply. The 500000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity that has not resumed production in Yunnan also provides an expected increase in demand for alumina.

Future Market Forecast

Due to the shortage of raw materials and the expected increase in demand, it is expected that the strength of alumina may continue until June.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 9th, the average market price of resorcinol was 44750 yuan/ton.

Pure benzene: The domestic price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On May 15th, the price of pure benzene was 8742 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% from last week. After the holiday, the rebound of crude oil was not significant. Overall, the trend of the crude oil market declined during the cycle, and the market was relatively weak due to the influence of crude oil. Shandong Refinery’s offer was strong, but buyer intention fell, prices fell, and transaction volume decreased.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly increased this week. On May 15th, the price of nitric acid was 1913 yuan/ton, and on May 8th, it was 1876 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.97% compared to last week. The supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market is supported, with a slight increase in cost trends. The market mainly focuses on orders, and the market transaction situation has improved.

M-phenylenediamine: The domestic price of m-phenylenediamine remained stable this week. On May 15th, the price of phenylenediamine was 38600 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged from last week. The downstream market orders for dispersed dyes and reactive dyes have decreased, and the overall situation is not optimistic. Some manufacturers may have plans to reduce their burden.

The atmosphere of the resorcinol market remained stable this week. From the perspective of supply and demand, the spot supply in the market was loose, with downstream buyers mainly focusing on demand. The downstream resin industry has been slow to follow up on demand, with basic needs being the main focus. The dye factory is actively selling out profits. Expected consolidation of the market trend range for resorcinol.

Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the industrial grade calcium formate market rose in April. As of April 30th, the average price of 98% industrial grade calcium formate in China was 3807.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.01% compared to the beginning of the month at 3732.50 yuan/ton, and an increase of 5.54% compared to March at 3607.50 yuan/ton.

quotations analysis

Cost side:

As of April 30th, the mainstream price of industrial grade 85% formic acid was 3287.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 137.5 yuan or 4.37% compared to early March. Compared to April 1st (with a reference price of 3300.00 yuan/ton for formic acid), the price has decreased by 0.38%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that the formic acid market price remained stable and slightly weak in April. In the first ten days, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and fell, while the price of raw material sulfuric acid remained roughly stable. The cost support was average, and downstream demand was mostly followed by rigid demand. Supply and demand support was relatively stable, and the center of gravity of formic acid prices remained stable. In the middle of the month, the price of raw material methanol rose, cost support increased, and the main factories maintained a stable trend. Orders were mainly shipped, and dealer quotations were mainly negotiated with the company. Market transactions continued to be in high demand. In the latter half of the year, the price of raw material methanol has slightly decreased, and cost support is slightly weak. Downstream industries are preparing goods at appropriate prices according to demand before festivals, and some companies are offering discounts and accepting orders. The company’s quotations have remained stable with little movement, and the market negotiation space has increased.

Demand side:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the cement market in East China increased in April, with the price of No. 1 being 302.00 yuan/ton and No. 24 being 316.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.64%. The current price has dropped by 23.11% year-on-year.

From January to March, the national real estate development investment was 2208.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% (calculated according to comparable standards); Among them, residential investment reached 1658.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.5%. From January to March, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 678.51 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. Among them, the residential construction area was 47.45.8 million square meters, a decrease of 11.7%. In recent years, real estate investment has shown a significant year-on-year decline, and infrastructure demand is difficult to hedge against the impact of the real estate downturn. The support for the cement market is weak.

Calcium formate can enhance the performance of cement, such as increasing hardness and shortening setting time, inhibiting corrosion of metal substrates, and preventing weathering. The increase in cement consumption in the construction industry has driven the market for calcium formate.

Overall

At present, the price of industrial grade calcium formate is relatively strong, and the cost support is still acceptable. It is expected that in the short term, the market situation of industrial grade calcium formate may remain stable, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in the supply side.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 6th to 11th, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province dropped from 3680 yuan/ton to 3652 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.78%, an increase of 0.16% month on month, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.81%. In some regions, the price range has been narrowed down, while the overall spot price of asphalt has remained stable with minor adjustments. Affected by the significant decline in crude oil during the holiday, some brand markets in Shandong and North China remained stable and fell after the holiday, while the asphalt market showed some fatigue and the trading atmosphere was light.

On the supply side, in terms of major production enterprises, the increase in asphalt production by Dongming Petrochemical and individual main refineries in East China has driven the overall supply up; The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, with negative impacts on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have seen a narrow decline overall, with the main negative factors being the positive progress in the ceasefire negotiations between Palestine and Israel, the easing of geopolitical tensions, and the still bearish outlook for global demand. As of May 9th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $83.88 per barrel.

On the demand side, logistics and transportation are limited during the holiday period, and some downstream projects are intermittently suspended, resulting in a decrease in asphalt shipments. After the holiday, downstream demand has slightly increased, and the industry mainly purchases according to demand. The differentiation of demand between the north and south is obvious, and the impact of precipitation weather in the south is still significant, making it difficult to recover demand; As the weather improves in the north, construction conditions are gradually improving, and downstream resumption of work is expected to increase. The demand side of the asphalt market has a mixed impact.

As of the close on May 11th, the petroleum asphalt futures market remained stable. The main asphalt contract 2409 opened at 3689 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3694 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3681 yuan/ton. It closed at 3687 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume was 45062 lots, with a position of 186343 lots and a daily increase of 359 lots.

In the future market forecast, the fluctuating operation after the cost side falls will have weak support for asphalt prices, and the supply will increase in the short term. The demand differentiation between the north and south is obvious, and with a dual increase in supply and demand, asphalt analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic asphalt market situation will be mainly focused on observation and consolidation.