Price trend chart of trichloroethylene

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the market for trichloroethylene in barrels remained stable this week (3.11-3.15), with an average price of 6560 yuan/ton.

Analysis and Review

The price of trichloroethylene continues to be weak, and the trading atmosphere on the market is light. From the perspective of demand, since the issuance of HFCs refrigerant quotas, the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has been relatively low, and production is mainly scheduled in an orderly manner based on the quotas within the year. R134a just needs follow-up, but the market procurement is relatively passive.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s trichloroethylene analyst believes that, combined with the market atmosphere, it is expected that trichloroethylene will continue to be stable in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the consolidation of the polyaluminum chloride market this week is the main focus. The solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market in China reported around 1815 yuan/ton on the 18th, which is stable compared to the 11th quotation. The production of water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas has basically returned to normal, with sufficient market inventory. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and the price of raw material hydrochloric acid has significantly decreased. The market for polyaluminum chloride has also stabilized.

Raw material hydrochloric acid: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price has dropped significantly this week, and as of March 18th, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is 92.50 yuan/ton. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a high level, with average cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market is consolidating, and downstream purchasing willingness is weakening.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has declined this week, while the domestic temperature has rebounded. The market demand is limited, and the main focus is on oversupply. Liquid prices have continued to decline from Monday to Thursday, and the market is cautious and wait-and-see. The price increase of imported gas is favorable for the domestic gas market, and the liquid price has stopped falling and risen.

Market forecast: In the near future, raw material prices will fall, fuel liquefied natural gas prices will decline, and the cost of polyaluminum chloride will decline. On the supply side, China’s polyaluminum chloride manufacturers have basically resumed normal production; On the demand side, there has been no significant improvement in purchasing willingness, and stability is the main focus. Analysis suggests that the recent market for polyaluminum chloride may be dominated by consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the NMP market has been operating weakly this week. On March 11th, the average price of NMP was 12233 yuan/ton, and on March 15th, the average price of NMP was 12166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54% during the cycle.

2、 Analysis and Review

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the NMP market did not show significant improvement this week and maintained a stalemate and consolidation operation. As of Friday, the mainstream retail price in the domestic electronic grade NMP market was 11800-12200 yuan/ton. The raw material end BDO market is operating steadily at a low level, and downstream demand is not following up enough, resulting in a market stalemate and consolidation. The demand for NMP in the market is mainly for basic needs, and there is a lack of price support mentality. Some factories have slightly lowered their quotations. Downstream cautious entry into the market, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

As of March 15th, the mainstream prices of NMP bulk water in different regions of China are as follows:

Region/ March 15th

East China region/ 12000-12200 yuan/ton

Central China region/ 11800-12000 yuan/ton

Southwest region/ 11800-12200 yuan/ton

Raw materials: The BDO market fluctuated narrowly. From March 11th to 15th, the average domestic BDO price dropped from 9428 yuan/ton to 9400 yuan/ton, with a 0.30% drop in price during the cycle.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society NMP analysts believe that the current performance of the NMP market is weak, and the market lacks positive signal guidance. It is expected that the market will remain weak in the short term.

According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of March 14, 2024, the reference price for domestic n-propanol market was 7916 yuan/ton. Compared with March 10, the price remained basically unchanged. Compared with February 1 (reference price for n-propanol is 7950 yuan/ton), the price increased by 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.42%.

This week, the domestic propylene glycol market continued to operate steadily and steadily. The overall news of the n-propanol market is relatively calm, with normal transmission of supply and demand on the market. The overall operating rate of n-propanol has not adjusted much, and the stable quotation of n-propanol from Shandong large factories gives market confidence. n-propanol operators and distributors have also remained stable, with downstream purchases of n-propanol continuing to be in demand. As of March 14th, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7150-7600 yuan/ton. The market price of n-propanol in the Nanjing area is around 8500-9000 yuan/ton. Dealers in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of future market trends of n-propanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-propanol on the market is quiet and mild, and most new orders on the market are newly purchased orders. Business Society’s n-propanol data analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 11th, the average price of epoxy propane for enterprises was 9150.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last Wednesday (March 6th).

The recent market situation of epoxy propane has been stagnant, and the market atmosphere is weak. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has risen first and then fallen, while the price of raw material liquid chlorine has declined, and the cost has weakened in the face of support from the epoxy propane market. On the supply side, there were fluctuations in some devices, and factory shipments were average. Downstream buyers were not very enthusiastic, and they were mainly cautious and cautious in following up on volume reduction. The market atmosphere was flat, and on March 11th, the mainstream quotation in the Shandong epoxy propane market was around 8950-9000 yuan.

Upstream propylene: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of propylene on March 11th was 6992.60, an increase of 1.77% compared to March 1st (6870.75), providing moderate support for the epoxy propane market.

The epoxy propane analyst from Business Society believes that the current cost support is limited, and the downstream market is mainly flat and wait-and-see. The epoxy propane market may operate weakly in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to the impact of cost.

This week, the lead market (3.4-3.11) saw a slight increase, with the average domestic market price last week at 15850 yuan/ton and this week at 15965 yuan/ton, up 0.73%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the range of fluctuations. The overall market trend has been weak recently, with the market falling for three consecutive months. The lead ingot market has had relatively small fluctuations recently.

Fundamentally speaking, the supply at the mining end has remained tight in the near future. Coupled with the recent high prices of silver, the processing fees for silver and lead ore have slightly decreased, but overall they are still operating at a high level. Some smelting enterprises in Hunan region have maintenance plans after entering March, which are expected to continue until the end of March. As a result, the supply of primary lead has slightly tightened, and there has been little change in the area of recycled lead in the near future. In terms of demand, downstream battery companies have gradually resumed production after resuming work. Currently, most companies are operating normally and are in a seasonal off-season. Downstream demand is maintained by replenishing inventory, and lead ingots are purchased on demand. Demand support still exists. Overall, the market is still in a post holiday recovery period, and the volatility of the futures market is also limited. Recently, the market has been operating weakly with little volatility. It is expected that the market will experience narrow fluctuations in the short term.

Related data:

On March 10th, the base metal index was 1185 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.67% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and up 84.58% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On March 10th, the non-ferrous index was 1108 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.96% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 82.54% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 10th week of 2024 (3.4-3.8), there were a total of 8 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were gold (3.55%), silver (2.92%), and zinc (2.69%). There are a total of 12 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are metal praseodymium (-3.43%), magnesium (-3.27%), and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-2.29%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.11%.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of domestic caprolactam on March 4th was 13850 yuan/ton, and on March 8th, the average market price of domestic caprolactam was 13525 yuan/ton. The price of caprolactam fell by 2.35% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of caprolactam has fallen this week. This week, the price of raw material pure benzene has been lowered, and cost support has weakened. At present, the market has sufficient supply and limited downstream demand, leading to an increase in bearish sentiment in the market.

This week, the price of raw material pure benzene has dropped. On March 4th, the price of pure benzene was 8275 yuan/ton. On Friday (March 8th), the price of pure benzene was 8261 yuan/ton, a 2.61% decrease from last week. This week, the price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was 8350 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions fell by 200 yuan/ton simultaneously).

The downstream PA6 market prices have fallen this week. Enterprise quotations have been lowered, mainly for old customers. As of March 7th, the average reference price for domestic PA6 is 15150 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that the caprolactam market has weakened recently. Insufficient cost support, coupled with oversupply in the market, has led to an increase in bearish factors. It is expected that the short-term market for caprolactam will continue to be weak and mainly consolidate.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this month and has been continuously rising since the beginning of the month. On February 1st, the price was 7967 yuan/ton; On February 29th, the price was 562 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.46% from the beginning of the month and 20.54% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: Yesterday, discussions on pure benzene in East China opened high and closed low, leading to a decrease in the prices of main units and a significant decline in the styrene market. The business owners were panicked, and large holders offered to sell at a discounted price, resulting in few transactions. Shandong Refinery’s offer remained stable. Some downstream companies entered the market for purchasing within the day, with continued buying momentum and good transactions. Night trading saw a rebound in buying gas for pure benzene at a low level, but crude oil slightly declined. It is expected that pure benzene in East China will be weakly consolidated in the morning.

This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 550 yuan/ton to 8550 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspect

3、 Future Market Forecast

Crude oil: US commercial crude oil inventories continue to grow, but OPEC+is considering extending the production reduction period, resulting in mixed fluctuations in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract fell by 0.33 US dollars per barrel or 0.42% to 78.54 US dollars per barrel; ICE oil futures 04 contract rose by 0.03 USD/barrel or 0.04% to 83.68 USD/barrel. The main contract of China INE crude oil futures, 2404, rose 7.5 yuan/barrel to 605.5 yuan/barrel, and rose 1.7 yuan/barrel to 607.2 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

Outside: FOB South Korea fell by $21 to $1010 per ton, CFR China fell by $20 to $1023 per ton, FOB Southeast Asia fell by $21 to $989 per ton, FOB Rotterdam and CIF ARA fell by $15 to $1255 per ton, and FOB USG remained stable at $402 per gallon.

The fundamentals are showing an upward trend in the short term, with sufficient supply on the market. Pure benzene may continue to rise in the short term, and we are waiting to see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in demand and downstream equipment dynamics on the price of pure benzene.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the focus of the domestic NMP market continued to shift downwards in February, indicating an overall weakness. At the beginning of February, the average price of electronic grade NMP was 12566 yuan/ton. On February 29th, the average price was 12300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.12%.

2、 Analysis and Review

As of February 29th, the mainstream prices of NMP bulk water in different regions of China are as follows:

Region/ February 29th

East China region/ 11800-12200 yuan/ton

Central China region/ 12000-12200 yuan/ton

Southwest region/ 11800-12200 yuan/ton

In February, the domestic NMP market continued to decline. As of the 29th, the mainstream retail price for electronic grade NMP in China was 11800-12500 yuan/ton. Affected by traditional festivals, the NMP market has a weaker off-season in February. At the beginning of the month, due to poor profits, downstream companies prepared to suspend work and take a holiday in advance, and market transactions gradually decreased. The market was basically closed during the Spring Festival period. After the holiday, the downstream launch was slow, and NMP enterprises actively sold goods. However, the market atmosphere was cold, and NMP was under pressure to decline.

The domestic BDO market remained stable in February. From February 1st to 29th, the average domestic BDO price increased from 9421 yuan/ton to 9428 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.07% during the cycle,

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to NMP analysts from Business Society, the downstream follow-up of NMP prices is slow, and the market mentality is poor. Without clear positive signals to guide it, it is expected that NMP prices will consolidate and operate at a low level in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of February 29, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8616 yuan/ton. Compared with February 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 8816 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.40%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in February, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong, China showed a weak downward trend. The center of gravity of the n-butanol market has been continuously approaching a low level since the beginning of the month, with a price reduction of 200-300 yuan/ton for n-butanol. As of February 29th, the reference price for the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong region is around 8600-8700 yuan/ton.

Factors influencing the market trend of n-butanol

In terms of demand: In early February, on the eve of the Spring Festival, the downstream stocking of n-butanol market has basically ended, with light market trading and calm demand. Returning from the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream production of n-butanol is relatively low, and the overall demand recovery is slow. New orders after the holiday are cautious and in high demand. Therefore, during February, the demand side provided loose support for n-butanol.

In terms of supply: Before the holiday, the shipment of n-butanol was average, but during the Spring Festival, there was a certain accumulation of inventory in the market. Now, after the holiday, construction is underway, and the overall supply of n-butanol in the factory is loose. In addition, some areas are affected by weather after the holiday, and logistics transportation is limited, resulting in slow circulation of n-butanol. In February, the overall supply side failed to provide effective support to the n-butanol market.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is average, with n-butanol factories actively shipping and downstream buying on dips as the main focus. According to the n-butanol data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong region is mainly stable with small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.