1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 796 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.69% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall domestic caustic soda prices have remained stable this week. The price of caustic soda in Hubei region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 970-1050 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is consolidating, with a mainstream market price of around 760-840 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The domestic price of downstream alumina remains in a narrow consolidation trend, as the delayed increase in alumina content is less than expected, downstream production and supply are stable, and the available spot quantity in the market is limited. Overall, alumina prices are mainly consolidating and operating.

In May 2024, China imported 3024.37 tons of liquid alkali, an increase of 2980.865 tons compared to the previous month, with a month on month increase of 6851.78%. In May 2024, China’s liquid alkali export volume was 275644.752 tons, an increase of 159554.972 tons compared to the previous month, with a month on month increase of 137.44%.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 25th week of 2024 (6.17-6.21), there were 0 products that rose, 4 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities falling include PVC (-1.28%), light soda ash (-0.71%), and baking soda (-0.51%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.43%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week. It is expected that the utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity will be around 85.5% this week, and the utilization rate of production capacity may increase. Downstream aluminum oxide is mainly purchased on demand, and the comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda may maintain a consolidating operation in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of June 14, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 9033 yuan/ton. Compared with June 9 (reference price of n-butanol was 9200 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 167 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.81%; Compared with June 1st (reference price of n-butanol at 8366 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 667 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.97%.

From the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (6.9-6.14), the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong, China showed a trend of high-level decline. Starting from June 10th, the center of gravity of the n-butanol market in Shandong began to continuously negotiate towards the low level. As of June 14th, the price of n-butanol in the domestic Shandong market was around 9000-9100 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Market of n-butanol

In terms of supply: From mid month to mid month, some of the early shutdown maintenance devices have resumed production, and the overall supply tension in the n-butanol field has eased. The supply volume has gradually increased. Therefore, from the supply side, the market support for n-butanol from the supply side has weakened compared to the previous period.

In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream demand for n-butanol is mainly focused on rigid demand procurement, with some downstream digesting raw materials as the main demand. The support provided by the demand side to the n-butanol market is generally average.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market is mild, and the transmission of supply and demand is still acceptable. Although the support provided by the supply and demand side to the market has weakened compared to the previous period, it still has some overall support. The n-butanol data analyst of Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mostly stabilize and consolidate, and the risk of continuous decline in the market is not high. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in news on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of caprolactam in China on June 7th was 13552 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 0.55% compared to the average market price of 13627 yuan/ton on June 3rd.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of caprolactam has fallen this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has decreased, weakening cost support. Downstream procurement is cautious and has a resistance to high prices, resulting in average market trading. As of now, the settlement price of Sinopec caprolactam is 14120 yuan/ton, which is a high-quality liquid product.

Raw material pure benzene market. This week, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased. On June 3rd, the price of pure benzene was 9300 yuan/ton. On Friday (June 7th), the price of pure benzene was 9292 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decrease from last week. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 9300 yuan/ton.

Downstream PA6 market. The recent PA6 market trend has been stable. The purchasing demand for domestic aggregation plants has weakened, and market trading is average. Terminal stocking is relatively cautious. As of June 7th, the reference price for domestic PA6 is 15100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that the market price of caprolactam has recently decreased. At present, due to insufficient cost support and slowing terminal demand, the market for caprolactam is beginning to decline. It is expected that the market price of caprolactam will be weak in the short term, and consolidation will be the main trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the butyl rubber market has shown a downward trend since May, with a benchmark price of 17860 yuan/ton in early May. As of May 31st, the benchmark price of butyl rubber was 17600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. A decrease of 1.46%. The price of butyl rubber was lowered in mid May. The cost side has been experiencing a continuous decline in isobutene prices since mid May. The overall trend shows a fluctuating downward trend.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side:

Under the long short game, international crude oil fell in May, reaching a low point in nearly three months. The short-term decline in crude oil prices is a squeezing effect of amplified bearish sentiment on both supply and demand sides. However, the future supply and demand fundamentals do not support the maintenance of low oil prices.

During the cycle, the crude oil market declined, and the isobutene market showed a synchronous downward trend. In early May, the benchmark price of isobutene was 12225 yuan/ton. As of May 28th, the standard price of isobutene was 12025 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The downstream demand for isobutylene lacks favorable incentives, and retail shipments are average. In the short term, the domestic isobutene market may continue to be weak.

Supply and demand side:

In April, the import volume of butyl rubber was 18441.999 tons, a decrease of 1613.368 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 8.04%. In April, the export volume of butyl rubber was 7820.57 tons, an increase of 526.429 tons compared to the previous month, a year-on-year increase of 6.73%, and a month on month increase of 18.02%. From January to April 2024, China imported a total of 66757.989 tons of butyl rubber, a year-on-year increase of 39.30%. The overall import volume of butyl rubber has increased compared to the same period last year. In mid May, Shandong Jingbo Zhongju’s 50000 ton/year butyl rubber plant was shut down for maintenance. Although Jingbo Zhongju’s domestic supply of goods was tightened during maintenance, imported goods arrived at the port to replenish inventory. At present, the domestic butyl rubber market is relatively loose.

The load rate of the downstream steel tire industry has decreased compared to last month, with the load rate of the entire steel tire industry at around 5.5 floors and the load rate of the semi steel tire industry at around 6.6 floors. Some enterprises in the steel tire industry have stopped for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in demand for raw materials.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In terms of raw materials, the isobutene market is operating weakly, and the cost support for butyl rubber is weakening; In terms of supply and demand, the order performance of the main downstream steel tire industry enterprises was lower than expected, and downstream bearish performance was obvious. They mostly followed up on demand, and market trading was poor. In the future, the cost of butyl rubber is bearish, and the supply-demand game is deadlocked. It is expected that the butyl rubber market will continue to be weak and consolidate in the later period.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

In May, the domestic hydrochloric acid market first rose and then fell, with uneven market performance. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of hydrochloric acid in the domestic market increased by 5.13% in May. As of the end of the month, the average market price was 102.5 yuan/ton.

Upstream support is still present, and downstream demand is average

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market performed strongly at the beginning of the month, with manufacturers maintaining a low operating rate and low inventory. The upstream liquid chlorine market has been operating at a high level recently, with expectations of an increase, providing good cost support. After the middle of the month, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have fallen, manufacturers are operating normally, and some enterprises have accumulated inventory, resulting in excessive inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a high level, and cost support is gradually weakening. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market remains weak. In May, it fell by 1.97% and the market price was 1758 yuan/ton. Polyaluminum chloride manufacturers are gradually resuming production, and downstream procurement willingness is average.

Future Market Forecast

In early June, the market price of hydrochloric acid may not have improved, and some high priced acid companies still have the possibility of making up for the decline. The upstream liquid chlorine market lacks support, and there is still room for further decline in the downstream polyaluminum chloride market. Downstream purchasing willingness is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent weak and volatile hydrochloric acid market is the main trend.

Basic trend

In May, the domestic liquid ammonia market was mainly volatile and rising, breaking out of a trend of first rising and then falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, liquid ammonia recorded a growth rate of 3.91% in May. At the end of the month, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3000-3200 yuan/ton.

make a concrete analysis

In the first half of the month, liquid ammonia continued its rebound trend at the end of April. In May, prices of manufacturers continued to rise, and the overall operating rate of domestic manufacturers significantly declined, especially with relatively low ammonia emissions in the main production areas in the north. Equipment maintenance is concentrated in Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi and other regions, with a significant decrease in ammonia emissions in the northern main production areas. In addition, there are also device failures and shutdowns in the two lakes area of central China, resulting in a tight market performance for ammonia. The supply has significantly declined during the same period. The ex factory price of liquid ammonia has naturally been repeatedly raised. In the week after the holiday, Shandong manufacturers generally raised prices 2-3 times, with a cumulative increase of 200-300 yuan/ton. The market performance is in short supply.

After mid month, the liquid ammonia market experienced a reversal, with a sharp decline in the market. There was a general decline in various markets, with prices in Shandong dropping from 3300 yuan to around 2900 yuan in the latter half of the year. In addition, the Northwest and Inner Mongolia have also experienced declines along with the decline in Shanxi, Shaanxi and other regions. The main reason is the increased supply pressure, with more liquid ammonia being converted in Shandong, Hebei and other regions, resulting in an increase in ammonia volume. In addition, most facilities in central and northwest China have been operating steadily, and increased supply has led to a general accumulation of inventory by manufacturers. Manufacturers generally lower prices to clear inventory and reduce pressure.

As the end of the month approached, liquid ammonia rebounded again, mainly due to the low inventory levels of manufacturers and the impact of device failures. The supply in northern main production areas such as Shandong, Hebei, and Shanxi slightly tightened. In addition, some devices are expected to reduce production, and the market atmosphere is performing well, especially with a delay in the downstream agricultural demand peak season and no reduction in procurement, which is related to demand follow-up.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that from the supply side, under the expectation of device maintenance, the tight supply pattern in the northern main production areas may continue for a period of time, and ammonia prices will be supported on the supply side.

From the demand side, agricultural demand remains primarily in demand, with demand increments or declines mainly due to a decrease in downstream compound fertilizer production rates and a slowdown in downstream procurement. In addition, the agricultural fertilizer preparation node has not yet arrived, and the next two weeks are in a period of agricultural demand gap, and the centralized procurement period has not yet arrived.

Taking all factors into consideration, the price of liquid ammonia will be relatively rigid in the near future, and there is still room for price upward movement in the short term due to reduced supply. However, in the expectation of weak demand in mid to late June, the supply-demand game will intensify, and the ammonia market situation may fluctuate.

Recently, the market price of hexafluoropropylene has shown a weak downward trend. Downstream demand is cold and procurement is not active, so there is currently no good news. According to the data monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the benchmark price of hexafluoropropylene in Shengyishe was 35650.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.63% compared to the beginning of this month (35875.00 yuan/ton).

Raw material side: High market prices are under pressure, and production enterprises have thin profits. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyishe is 11620.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the beginning of this month. The operation of hydrofluoric acid plants has not changed much, and some manufacturers of hydrofluoric acid have accumulated inventory. The mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid negotiated in various regions of China is 11200-11700 yuan/ton, and there are still units waiting for market shutdown. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, and the operation of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is about 60%. The overall domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend remained stable in May.

The downstream market is relatively quiet, with poor demand, and the focus is on purchasing for essential needs.

Business Society’s hexafluoropropylene analyst predicts that due to the recent high cost support of hexafluoropropylene, downstream market demand is poor, and on-demand procurement is affected. It is expected that the hexafluoropropylene market will operate weakly and steadily in the near future. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

This month, the domestic market atmosphere for monoethanolamine continued to be light. As of May 30th, the benchmark price of Yishangshe Yiethanolamine was 10440.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.57% compared to the beginning of this month (10500.00 yuan/ton). This month, the primary demand for transactions in the monoethanolamine market has weakened expectations for transactions, with dealers offering more discounts for shipments, and downstream purchasing intentions being lackluster.

Market analysis:

This month, the performance of the monoethanolamine market has been relatively stable, but with a slight off-season atmosphere. After experiencing a period of decline, the price of ethylene oxide in the market gradually stabilized. As the main raw material of monoethanolamine, it provided some support for the cost of monoethanolamine, but the support was still average. Due to the relatively sufficient supply of monoethanolamine in the market, while the demand from downstream users has weakened, the trading atmosphere in the market appears relatively cold.

On the one hand, downstream users mostly follow up on demand and are cautious in purchasing monoethanolamine. Market transactions are mainly based on regular orders and lack support from bulk purchases; On the other hand, some production enterprises may have made price adjustments to reduce inventory, further affecting the market price trend.

In terms of cost:

The domestic market price of ethylene oxide fell in May. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 30th, the average price quoted by domestic ethylene oxide enterprises was 6900.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.43% compared to the price on May 1st (the reference price for ethylene oxide was 7000.00 yuan/ton). The early maintenance equipment has started to resume production, and there has been a slight increase in supply pressure. Coupled with the unsatisfactory transmission of downstream product prices, the price of ethylene oxide has begun to decline. However, the cost support brought by the raw material side remains, and it is expected that there is not much room for price decline in the short term, with short-term fluctuations being mainly weak.

The liquid ammonia market fluctuated in May. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 28th, the average quoted price of liquid ammonia enterprises was 3100.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.91% compared to May 1st (reference price of liquid ammonia was 2983.33 yuan/ton), and a decrease of -6.06% compared to May 15th (reference price of liquid ammonia was 3300.00 yuan/ton). The main reason is that the maintenance equipment has resumed work one after another, and the supply side has shown a loose performance. Coupled with the downstream related product urea, which stopped rising this week, some regions have fallen back, and the market has fallen into a stalemate, which has dragged down ammonia prices.

On the demand side:

As an important organic chemical raw material, monoethanolamine has a wide and diverse range of application scenarios on the demand side. In the chemical industry, monoethanolamine is the main raw material used as a corrosion inhibitor, surfactant, catalyst and crosslinking agent in the polyurethane (coating) industry, fluorescent whitening agent in the textile industry, synthesis of advanced dyes in the dyeing and chemical industry, neutralizing agent in the rubber and ink industries, rust inhibitor, preservative, paint manufacturing and acid gas absorption rust inhibitor, preservative, paint manufacturing and acid gas absorption agent collector. Downstream stocking is mainly based on demand.

Overall:

The market for monoethanolamine is showing a stable and weak trend, with downstream user procurement demand mainly maintaining in a rigid range. Holders have a relatively pessimistic attitude, and the focus of market negotiations is clearly biased towards the low price range. Without clear positive factors to support it, the monoethanolamine market is currently struggling to reverse its decline. According to analysts from Business Society, the market for monoethanolamine may continue its weak consolidation trend in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride increased in May. As of the end of the month, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8187.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.06% compared to the price of 7720 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a year-on-year increase of 2.99%.

Supply side: The device operates stably and the supply of goods is normal

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. In May, the price of industrial naphthalene rose, and the market for naphthalene based phthalic anhydride has risen, which has affected the price of ortho phthalic anhydride.

Cost side: Rising prices of ortho benzene, strong cost support

In May, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene increased. As of the end of the month, the price of ortho benzene was 8400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.20% from the beginning of the month’s price of 8300 yuan/ton. Due to tight supply of ortho benzene and maintenance of some equipment on site, the price trend of crude oil has risen in the short term, and the price of mixed xylene has risen. The rise of ortho benzene has provided strong cost support for the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of the phthalic anhydride market has risen.

On the demand side: The trend of on-demand procurement in the DOP market is increasing

In May, the downstream DOP market price trend increased, with a price of 10162.5 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 3.83% compared to the beginning of the month’s price of 9787.5 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises are operating normally, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises are still operating at a loss, and downstream demand is average, The mainstream price of DOP has risen to 10100-10200 yuan/ton, and the downstream DOP price trend has increased, leading to an increase in the purchase of phthalic anhydride and an increase in the domestic phthalic anhydride market price trend.

Looking at the future market: In recent times, crude oil prices have fluctuated and risen, while ortho xylene prices have risen. Downstream DOP prices have fluctuated and risen, but the demand for plasticizers has not improved significantly. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and it is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will mainly fluctuate in the later period.

In May, the market price of industrial grade 85% formic acid in China fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 28th, the average price quoted by formic acid companies was 2937.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.65% compared to the price on May 1st (formic acid reference price of 3287.50 yuan/ton).

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that the industrial grade 85% formic acid market experienced an overall decline in May. In the first half of the month, the price of raw material methanol in the market rose and cost support increased, but demand support was weak. Downstream buying was flat, and inquiries and purchases were mainly in demand. Manufacturers accumulated inventory to promote transactions, and the focus of negotiations in the formic acid market declined. In the second half of the month, the raw material methanol market surged and fell, and cost support weakened from strong to weak. The supply side has sufficient supply of goods, but the demand follow-up is limited, resulting in a bearish supply and demand side. Enterprises are actively selling at a profit margin, and the formic acid market has stabilized after a decline.

Future Market Forecast:

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost face has limited market impact, and downstream users need to follow up on dips. The market atmosphere is average, and it is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may operate steadily, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.