According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of PET water bottles continued to decline this week. As of September 9th, the average market price has been adjusted to 6362 yuan per ton.

In terms of the raw material market, a series of core economic data released this week appear quite bleak, triggering deep concerns among investors about the weakening of the growth momentum of US consumer spending, and subsequently leading to a pessimistic attitude towards the growth prospects of US oil consumption demand. At the same time, there are multiple negative news coming from the market: the possibility of Libyan crude oil supply returning to the international stage, as well as expectations that OPEC+organizations may start increasing oil production, these factors are intertwined, exacerbating the unfavorable macro atmosphere. Affected by the continuous negative macro news, international crude oil prices experienced a sharp decline this week, which directly put heavy pressure on the polyester sector and led to its overall weak performance. As of September 8th, the average price of PTA in China was 5012 yuan/ton, a decrease of more than 800 yuan/ton from the average price of 5830 yuan/ton in the East China market on August 1st, which failed to provide effective cost support for the PET market. The cost support of PET is average, market demand is weak, and trading activity has significantly decreased, which in turn has led to a further decline in the focus of PET futures and spot prices.

On the supply side, on the one hand, there are significant expectations for the expansion of new production capacity, including the upcoming production of the 750000 ton/year project of Xingye Plastics and the 500000 ton/year project of Yizheng Petrochemical. In addition, three sets of equipment that were originally under maintenance are expected to restart, and it is expected that PET supply will increase significantly in September. On the other hand, with the high temperatures in summer and the end of student holidays, people’s travel activities have significantly decreased, directly affecting the consumption of terminal soft drinks and catering industries, thereby reducing the demand for PET materials. The pessimistic market atmosphere has further intensified the downward pressure on the polyester bottle chip market, with prices frequently falling. Under the risk of continuously shrinking inventory value, industry participants generally adopt more conservative strategies and are more cautious in placing orders, resulting in a significant slowdown in order volume growth. At the same time, the increasing number of trade barriers worldwide has also set new obstacles for the export of polyester bottle flakes, making it difficult to reach new highs.

In summary, the current PET market has a sharp supply-demand contradiction, with increased supply and weak demand, coupled with export obstacles, putting heavy upward pressure on the absolute price of the PET market. The market trend tends to be cautious and unstable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 2nd to 5th, MTBE prices fell from 6110 yuan/ton to 5975 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.21% during the period, a month on month drop of 11.15%, and a year-on-year drop of 24.61%. The international crude oil market is increasingly concerned about weak global demand, with international oil prices falling to the lowest point of the year. At the same time, rigid demand for gasoline is gradually declining with the end of summer vacation. In addition, the negative impact of the decline in crude oil prices has increased the price drop. MTBE, as a gasoline raw material, cannot escape the downward trend. Although some manufacturers have reduced their production, the situation of MTBE oversupply is still evident, and the overall domestic MTBE market trend is clearly declining.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The international oil price has fallen, and the main negative factors are: the market’s concerns about the economic and demand prospects continue to ferment, and the problem of Libyan crude oil supply disruptions is expected to recover. As of September 5th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $72.69 per barrel.

On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline terminal demand, terminal demand has weakened after the end of summer, and retail gas station shipments have returned to stability. Gas station merchants mostly maintain median inventory for procurement and sales, and large orders are not easy to transact. Operators may purchase MTBE or maintain small orders on demand. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

Supply side: Some manufacturers have reduced their production, and there is an expectation of reduced resource supply. The short-term domestic MTBE supply is affected by favorable factors.

As of the close on September 5th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $6.5/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $700.99-702.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $19/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $835.49-835.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $12.78 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $832.57-832.93 per ton (234.53-234.63 cents per gallon).

In the future forecast, due to the continuous poor shipments from manufacturers, inventory has accumulated, and the positive support for demand is limited. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market will continue to consolidate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market fluctuated and declined in August. As of August 30th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 5383 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.68% from the beginning of the month. Despite some unplanned short-term shutdowns of PTA facilities during the month, the operating rate remained high and demand remained weak. Overall, PTA’s supply remained abundant, with strong expectations for inventory accumulation. The cooling of the geopolitical situation on the cost side has reduced market concerns about crude oil supply, leading to a wide decline in international crude oil prices and weakened support for PTA costs.

Looking at the future market, the current operating rate of the domestic PTA industry is around 86%. Two sets of PTA plants with a total capacity of 3.4 million tons are scheduled for maintenance in September, and there are currently no plans to restart the plants. In addition, the downstream is about to enter the seasonal peak season for polyester, and the demand for PTA may gradually rebound. Overall, the supply and demand structure of PTA may be improved, and the speed of inventory accumulation may slow down.

On the cost side of the international crude oil market, as of August 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $74.52 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $77.58 per barrel. At present, geopolitical instability continues to affect the market, with the traditional peak season in the United States coming to an end, coupled with poor economic data performance, the crude oil market is mainly volatile. The cost support for PX is limited, and the supply is at a high level. Some units have maintenance plans in September, which provides some support for PX prices.

On the demand side, the current downstream polyester industry operating rate is around 83%, and there is an expectation of the traditional peak season for polyester consumption, known as the “Golden September and Silver October”. Some polyester plants will restart in September, and the operating rate will slightly increase, which will lead to a rebound in PTA demand. Terminal reloading and weaving operations will also gradually rebound, with orders being placed one after another and approaching the replenishment cycle. Raw materials or appropriate replenishment will be required.

Business analysts believe that in the short term, international crude oil on the cost side is expected to fluctuate and stabilize, providing support for PTA costs. PTA plant shutdown maintenance helps alleviate supply pressure. In addition, some polyester plants will restart, and the demand for PTA will slightly rebound. Therefore, with a slight improvement in fundamentals, PTA prices are expected to fluctuate and stabilize in September.

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of the end of the month, spot nickel was reported at 131666 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 1.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.49%. The macro sentiment is fluctuating, and there is no significant improvement in the spot trading atmosphere. Domestic and foreign inventories maintain a trend of accumulation, and nickel prices fluctuated and closed down in August.

Nickel industry chain

Macroscopically, news such as a decline in the US manufacturing PMI in July and weak non farm payroll reports have sparked global economic growth anxiety and concerns about weak demand; Various institutions predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, boosting market trends; At present, the optimistic expectation of interest rate cuts has largely subsided, while concerns about recession expectations continue.

On the supply side: Global inventories continue to increase, and expectations of oversupply remain unchanged. As of August 30th, LME nickel inventory was 118998 tons, with a month on month increase of 2382 tons; Shanghai nickel inventory is 22612 tons, an increase of 2544 tons month on month. Domestic inventory pressure is evident, and the upward momentum of nickel prices may weaken.

In terms of demand, stainless steel production slightly increased in August, with continuous release of output and fluctuating inventory levels. Downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, and the stainless steel market is under pressure. The expected demand for Jinjiu is not optimistic. On August 30th, the benchmark price of stainless steel plates in Shengyi Society was 12757.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from the beginning of the month, and continued to operate at a low level. The demand for alloys such as military and shipbuilding remains stable, and enterprises are buying at low prices.

Market forecast: Demand has not improved yet, inventory is under pressure, surplus pattern continues, macroeconomic fluctuations, and it is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 20700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.53% compared to the same period last year. On August 25th, the bromine commodity index was 72.63, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 70.38% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 23.27% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine has remained stable, with prices in the Shandong region stabilizing. The mainstream market price is around 20000-21000 yuan/ton, and the overall inventory in the region is stable. Domestic bromine production is also stable. The production and demand for downstream flame retardants of bromine are generally average, and the demand for agriculture and intermediates is also average. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been consolidating, with an average market price of 1440 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the end of the week, an increase of 35.42% compared to the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain weak in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to consolidate. Downstream flame retardant production is average, and demand for agriculture and intermediates is moderate. Demand is mainly driven by on-demand procurement. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 16th to 23rd, MTBE prices fell from 6487 yuan/ton to 6162 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.01% during the cycle, a month on month drop of 9.17%, and a year-on-year drop of 19.71%. Due to the abundant supply of MTBE resources and the lack of export support, the overall domestic MTBE market has experienced a significant decline.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The international oil price has fallen, and the main negative factors are: the ongoing Israeli Palestinian peace talks have temporarily eased the situation in the Middle East, and market concerns about poor demand prospects and the risk of economic recession in the United States have only increased. As of August 22nd, the Brent crude oil benchmark price of Shengyi Society is $76.05 per barrel.

On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, as the summer season draws to a close, the frequency of private car trips by the public has decreased, and retail gas station shipments have stabilized. Most gas station merchants purchase on demand, maintaining a median inventory operation, and operators may purchase MTBE on demand. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

Supply side: There is an expectation of reduced resource supply. The short-term domestic MTBE supply is affected by favorable factors.

As of the close on August 22, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $15/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $730.49-732.49/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $3.75/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $861.74-862.24/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $13.74 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $875.14-875.49 per ton (246.52-246.62 cents per gallon).

Market forecast: In the short term, the overall supply pressure in China is relatively high, and with weak demand, manufacturers can only reduce prices and promote sales. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market will continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 1st to 16th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market fell from 10100.00 yuan/ton to 9866.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34% during the period and a year-on-year increase of 2.47%. The raw material pure benzene first rose and then fell, with some cost support. Downstream demand is weak, and the domestic cyclohexanone market is operating weakly, with a lower focus on transactions.

2、 Market analysis

Cost aspect:

Raw material pure benzene: Raw material pure benzene first rose and then fell, the market’s mentality towards the future changed, and the negotiation differences between buyers and sellers widened, resulting in a slowdown in transactions. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%, and the market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone. In the short term, the cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

Supply side:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the current operating load of cyclohexanone is around 7.3%, which has decreased compared to last week. The main production enterprises, Shijiazhuang Coking, Yangmei Fengxi, Shandong Hongda, Jining Zhongyin, Shandong Haili, and Jiangsu Haili, produced more than 110000 tons of cyclohexanone this week, an increase from last week.

Demand side:

The cyclohexanone plant is mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the most important downstream of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market continues to decline, with upstream pure benzene prices first rising and then falling this week. Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price has been raised by 100 yuan to execute 8500 yuan/ton, forming certain support on the cost side. Downstream is steadily advancing, acting cautiously, and the pace of raw material procurement is slowing down. In addition, with some units returning to normal, the tight supply situation in the early stage has eased, and the market trading price center is gradually decreasing. The temporary storage of cyclohexanone demand is negative.

3、 Future forecast

The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased, with some cost support. Downstream demand for cyclohexanone is bearish, and analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the short-term domestic cyclohexanone market needs to closely monitor the reaction of downstream industries.

Weak ethylene glycol prices in August

The price of ethylene glycol was relatively weak in August. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of August 16th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4571.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.90% from the average price of 4561.67 yuan/ton in the East China market on August 1st. The prices in each region are as follows:

The spot price range for mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4500-4900 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4550 yuan/ton, and the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4500 yuan/ton for external execution; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4550 yuan/ton.

On August 16, 2024, the basis of the spot contract for ethylene glycol at the port is near low and far high. Next week, the basis quotation will be+40 to+44; The basis of forward contracts is relatively strong, with a base price of 58-62 yuan/ton in September and 63-68 yuan/ton in October.

On August 16th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained basically stable, with a domestic price range of 4150-4330 yuan/ton, including tax.

On August 15, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was 539 US dollars/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was 550 US dollars/ton.

Reasons for the price drop in August:

1. Port inventory rebounds

The destocking of port inventory is clearly one of the main supporting factors for early prices. Entering August, the inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China has stopped falling and stabilized, rising. As of August 15th, the inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 614900 tons, a slight increase from 576700 tons on July 25th.

The benefits brought by the decrease in explicit inventory at the port in the early stage have been basically realized with the rise in prices. After reaching a new high this year, the expected increase in domestic supply and the anticipated increase in port arrivals have constrained the continued rise of ethylene glycol prices.

2. Due to the impact of macro fundamentals, the price of ethylene glycol in the external market has been narrowly adjusted.

August ethylene glycol plant dynamics

In terms of coal production equipment, multiple sets of coal production equipment are expected to undergo maintenance.

In terms of overseas facilities, the 828000 ton/year ethylene glycol plant in South Asia, USA, has recently been shut down for maintenance due to a utility malfunction, and the restart time is yet to be determined; 1 # 360000 tons are currently operating stably. Two sets of ethylene glycol plants in Canada, one with a capacity of 480000 tons per year and the other with a capacity of 400000 tons per year, are scheduled to be shut down for maintenance in early October, with an estimated time of about a week.

Future expectations

At present, the absolute amount of explicit inventory in ports is still relatively low. Although there has been a slight accumulation of inventory recently, there is not much room for inventory to continue to rise. The main considerations are as follows:

1. Polyester production is recovering, with active procurement at low prices;

2. The overseas supply has been weak, mainly due to the relatively concentrated arrival of contracted goods at the port in the second half of August. However, since September, there has been a shortage of external shipments of ethylene glycol, mainly due to the shutdown of some facilities in Saudi Arabia due to gas shortage since mid to late July, resulting in a significant reduction in Saudi supply;

3. Domestic supply and demand, currently the domestic supply and demand are basically balanced. On the demand side, the off-season of August demand will gradually pass, coupled with the concentrated production plan of bottle flakes in the third quarter, the demand expectation is good.

Therefore, in the short term, the fluctuation of ethylene glycol prices is the main trend, and there will be support for ethylene glycol prices after September.

The price of plasticizer DOP fell in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 12th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9111 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.09% compared to the DOP price of 9500 yuan/ton on August 1st at the beginning of the month. The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell. With the arrival of the hot and rainy season, PVC has entered a seasonal off-season in the industry. The low demand for plasticizers in China, coupled with reduced exports, has led to a decline in demand for plasticizers and a decrease in the willingness of plasticizer manufacturers to operate. As a result, the plasticizer market is in a low season, with manufacturers operating at low levels and weak follow-up on actual sales. The demand for plasticizers is poor, and there is significant downward pressure on plasticizers.

The price of raw material isooctanol has dropped

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 12th, the price of isooctanol was 9333.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 7.41% compared to the price of 9000 yuan/ton on August 1st. In August, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, downstream factories purchased according to demand, plasticizers were in low season, downstream enterprises had poor enthusiasm for raw material procurement, Shandong large factories sold at a discount, and the market transaction center shifted downwards, increasing the downward pressure on isooctanol.

The price of raw material phthalic anhydride has slightly decreased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the domestic phthalic anhydride market is weak and temporarily stable this week. As of August 12th, the price of phthalic anhydride in the phthalic anhydride market was 7875 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.16% from the price of 7887.50 yuan/ton on August 1st. Domestic neighboring phthalic anhydride is priced at 7700-7900 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic naphthalene phthalic anhydride is priced at 7300-7400 yuan/ton before leaving the factory. This week, the industrial naphthalene price fluctuated and stabilized, the naphthalene phthalic anhydride market stabilized, the ortho benzene market fell, the cost support decreased, and the ortho benzene phthalic anhydride market fell.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of raw material isooctanol has fallen, the price of phthalic anhydride has slightly decreased, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased; In terms of demand, during the off-season in downstream markets, the demand for plasticizers is weak, and the downward pressure on plasticizers is increasing. In the future, the cost of plasticizer raw materials will decrease, and downstream demand will be weak during the off-season. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and fall in the future

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of August 9th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China this week was 7966.67 yuan/ton, with cyclohexane prices remaining stable. Currently, downstream demand is average, and cyclohexane market inventory is running at a high level, resulting in slow shipments. Downstream purchases are mainly for essential needs, and businesses are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: In terms of upstream pure benzene, the pure benzene market was weak at first and then strong in August, and the supply of pure benzene is in a recovery state. Currently, the demand for essential goods is relatively stable. With the peak season in late August and the need for stocking during the National Day holiday, market prices will also show a strong trend.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the short-term cyclohexane market price is expected to remain stable with a weak trend. Currently, the upstream cost support is average, and downstream demand is weak. The mainstream price range for cyclohexane is 8000 yuan/ton.