The price of isooctanol has fallen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 22, the price of isooctanol was 9166.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 5.82% compared to the price of 9733.33 yuan/ton on November 15. This week, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises has increased, the supply of isooctanol has increased, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen. The increase in supply and demand for isooctanol is average, and the support for the isooctanol market has weakened, resulting in a fluctuating decline in isooctanol prices.

Increased supply of isooctanol

The operating load of isooctanol enterprises has increased, and the supply of isooctanol has increased. Lihua Yi Enterprise’s octanol equipment has been restored, and the supply of isooctanol in the market has increased, weakening the support for the rise of isooctanol.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and fall

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 22, the DOP price was 9201.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.28% compared to the DOP price of 9513.75 yuan/ton on November 15. The demand for plasticizer DOP is average, and the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuates and falls. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises is stable, and the demand for isooctanol for plasticizers is average. The demand support for isooctanol has weakened.

Future expectations

The data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product believes that as the operating load of isooctanol enterprises increases, the supply of isooctanol also increases, and the support for the rise of isooctanol weakens; Downstream plasticizer manufacturers have temporarily stabilized their production, while demand for isooctanol is sluggish. In the future, the supply of isooctanol is sufficient, but the demand is cold, resulting in a decline in the price of isooctanol.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 19th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8572.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.12% compared to the beginning of this month (8670 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: Lianyungang major factory releases maintenance news, market atmosphere is tense. In late October, there was no inventory and limited sales, resulting in a tight market supply and an increase in epoxy propane prices.

Raw material side: The prices of raw materials propylene and liquid chlorine remain stable at high levels. Although the manufacturer has sufficient inventory, downstream demand is weak, and the company reduces profits by selling at low prices, resulting in a decrease in actual trading volume. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 17th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6833.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.70% compared to the beginning of this month (6785.75 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: New orders and urgent purchases are the main focus in the downstream market, while actual orders and transactions are sluggish.

Market forecast:

An epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average, with a strong wait-and-see attitude and a focus on on-demand procurement. Epoxy propane companies have a positive attitude towards pushing up prices, and it is expected that the short-term epoxy propane market will mainly experience fluctuations and consolidation. More attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 11th to 18th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8842 yuan/ton to 8785 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.65% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 11.70%. Recently, there have been frequent fluctuations in the operation and maintenance of the equipment, with a mainly wait-and-see attitude. The industry continues to suffer losses, and suppliers actively support the market, limiting the room for market price fluctuations. The overall downstream demand is average, and there is a game between supply and demand, resulting in a stalemate in the focus of the domestic BDO market.

On the supply side, although some devices unexpectedly stopped, the expected increase in market supply and inventory has weakened the support on the supply side.

In terms of cost, raw material calcium carbide: The regional performance of the calcium carbide market has strengthened, and limited electricity has emerged in Inner Mongolia, especially in the Wuhai area, which has accelerated the tight supply of goods in the market. Recently, the environmental impact in Shandong and Henan regions has weakened, and there has been an increase in demand. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market is mainly consolidating. As of 3:00 pm on November 18th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2510 yuan/ton. The raw material calcium carbide market fluctuates narrowly, methanol prices remain high and consolidate, and the impact of BDO costs is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream industries except for PTMEG have shown a significant increase in production, while others have stable or declining operations, and overall raw material digestion is average. The impact of BDO demand remains to be seen.

Future forecast: The expected increase in market supply of goods and the weakening of supply side support. The downstream demand side follows up generally, and there is a bargaining sentiment towards raw materials, which is bearish on the market mentality. Business Society BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly focus on consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, TDI in the East China region performed weakly this week, with prices slightly falling. As of November 15th, the average market price in the East China region was 12850 yuan/ton, and on November 11th, the average price was 12950 yuan/ton. The weekly decline was 0.77%, and the year-on-year decline was 23.96%.

This week, the TDI market has been running weakly, with upstream units operating relatively stably and downstream entry enthusiasm low, resulting in low transaction volume. Traders are more active in shipping and have increased the room for negotiation, leading to a shift in the focus of TDI prices.

Supply side: Domestic equipment is in a stable state, and the preliminary inspection equipment has also returned to normal.

Cost wise: The upstream toluene market continues to decline, downstream demand remains weak, toluene continues to loosen and soften, and trading is weak.

According to the analysis of the future market, the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current TDI market atmosphere is relatively pessimistic, with all the positive supply points exhausted. With the negative impact on the demand side in the future, it is expected that the TDI market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated downward from November 1st to 11th, 2024. On November 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 5860 yuan/ton, and on November 11th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% during the cycle. This week, the overall focus of the toluene market is relatively low, with the disproportionation industry being the main industry in Shandong. The purchasing enthusiasm of other industries is not high, and the overall downstream demand is more rigid. Overall, the toluene market has a strong supply-demand game mentality, and the market is mainly characterized by narrow fluctuations.

Cost wise: As of the 8th, international crude oil futures closed down, with the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures at $70.38 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $73.87 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have mainly fluctuated, with little overall change. On the one hand, OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, which is good news for international oil prices. On the other hand, the local economy in Asia has improved, and market panic on demand has eased, boosting the international oil market. However, geopolitical tensions have eased, and this news is bearish for the international oil market. There is a long short game, and overall, crude oil first rose and then fell during the cycle.

Supply side: Sinopec toluene quotation situation: Currently, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of the equipment is stable, the products are mostly self used, and the production and sales are stable. As of November 11th, East China Company quoted 5750 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5950 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5700-5750 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and demand support is weak

On November 11th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price being 7300 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably, with normal sales, and the price is unchanged from November 1st. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of November 8th, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were $809-811/ton FOB Korea and $834-836/ton CFR China.

Market forecast: There will still be supply pressure in the toluene market in the near future, with major refineries accumulating inventory and actively shipping within the week. On the demand side, downstream suppliers will maintain on-demand procurement. Overall, the performance of supply and demand is weak, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate steadily with weak performance.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has risen. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3606.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.30% from the early week price of 3525 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.53%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department needs to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the supply shortage combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of rising prices in the fluorite market this week is strong.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid prices rise, refrigerant market rises

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid has risen this week, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China has recently been negotiated at 11000-11500 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid units are still shut down, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid is around 60%. In November, manufacturers raised their prices, which boosted the trend of fluorite prices.

The downstream refrigerant market is on the rise, and the demand for summer after-sales service is rapidly digesting. The inventory will continue to be depleted throughout the year. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the prices in the foreign trade market are gradually increasing, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The market price of some refrigerant products has risen, which has led to a continuous increase in the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as defense and nuclear industries, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. Recently, the downstream refrigerant product market has risen, and the price of hydrofluoric acid has risen. Overall, the domestic fluorite market still has an upward trend.

This week (10.28-10.31), the domestic price of ethyl acetate continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 31st, the price of ethyl acetate was 5933.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.49% compared to the beginning of the week price of 6023.33 yuan/ton. The main reason for the weak downstream demand, the decline in raw material prices, and the obvious bearish sentiment in the market have led to a weak downward trend in the ethyl acetate market.

The market for ethyl acetate has continued to decline this week. During the week, there was insufficient follow-up on downstream demand, causing manufacturers to block shipments and accumulate inventory. The main factory, ethyl acetate, lowered its quotation, while raw material prices remained weak, resulting in a negative impact on the cost side. This transmitted to the end market and reduced downstream buying, resulting in limited actual transactions on the market and a shift in the focus of ethyl acetate trading.

Looking at the future market, the upstream of ethyl acetate continues to decline, with weak cost support and a wait-and-see attitude in the downstream. They follow up on demand when entering the market, but lack sufficient support for ethyl acetate. Manufacturers’ shipments are not smooth, inventory pressure continues to increase, and there is a lack of favorable market conditions. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will remain weak in the short term, and we will pay specific attention to changes in the upstream market and downstream follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid continued to decline in October, with a price of 2900 yuan/ton as of October 30th. Compared with the acetic acid price of 3250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, the price has decreased by 350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.77% during the month.

As of the end of the month, the market price details of acetic acid in various regions of China in October are as follows:

Region/ On October 8th/ On October 18th/ October 30th

South China region/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 2825 yuan/ton

North China region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 2825 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 2950 yuan/ton/ 2800 yuan/ton

Jiangsu region/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 2750 yuan/ton/ 2700 yuan/ton

Zhejiang region/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 2850 yuan/ton/ 2800 yuan/ton

The acetic acid market experienced a weak decline in October. In terms of supply, the acetic acid plant on site is operating normally, and the market supply is stable. However, downstream buyers are generally enthusiastic about entering the market, and the inquiry atmosphere is sluggish during the month. Market transactions are limited, and manufacturers’ shipments are hindered, leading to increased inventory pressure. In order to promote transactions, the focus of acetic acid trading has shifted downwards. However, downstream demand is weak, and there is a lack of favorable supply side factors, resulting in a continuous decline in the acetic acid market.

The methanol market on the raw material side is weak and volatile. As of October 30th, the average price in the domestic market was 2440.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.33% compared to the beginning of the month price of 2577.50 yuan/ton. Returning from vacation, some downstream restocking has led to an increase in methanol prices; From the 9th to the middle of the month, fundamentals weakened, on-site supply increased, downstream demand did not follow smoothly, and methanol prices continued to fall; After the price fell to a low level, downstream gas buying improved, and then methanol prices rebounded accordingly; By the end of the month, due to the continuous increase in market supply and the availability of warehouses at ports, as well as the decline in futures prices, the methanol spot market had weakened and declined.

Market forecast: Business analysts believe that the current bearish atmosphere in the acetic acid market is evident, downstream demand is insufficient, market trading atmosphere is light, supply side acetic acid inventory is sufficient, shipments are poor, downstream mentality on the demand side is sluggish, on-site supply is strong and demand is weak. It is expected that acetic acid prices will continue to be weak in the future, and specific attention will be paid to downstream replenishment situation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on October 28th was 873 yuan/ton, which is 1.13% lower than the average price of 883 yuan/ton on October 21st.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price first rose and then fell. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, with a slight increase in the operating rate at the domestic level. Downstream demand has weakened, but market inquiries have decreased, resulting in more low-priced purchases. The export performance is poor, and there is currently no positive news in the short term. As of October 28th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 820 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 830-900 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has been running steadily in recent days, with a weak overall trend. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement is not high, and they tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices will continue to be weakly adjusted and operated.

At present, asphalt is in the peak season of consumption, and the demand for spot goods is released in the last wave. While refineries in the main production areas maintain low operating levels, the society is smoothly destocking. A few factories have also experienced temporary shortages. Overall, the inventory status of various factories is lower than the same period last year, and the asphalt market is steadily rising during the week. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the price in Shandong region was 3501 yuan/ton on October 18th, and rose to 3533 yuan/ton on October 25th, an increase of 0.9%.

The cost side support is still acceptable, but the geopolitical issues in the Middle East remain unresolved. There are still significant risks in the oil market, and coupled with the current low supply pressure, there is still support for the closure of spot demand. Asphalt is steadily rising.

In terms of supply, the average operating rate of asphalt in mid October was around 40%, and overall it is still at a relatively low level within the past five years. The pressure on the supply side is not significant.

From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the supply side is still at a low level, and factories are in a low inventory state, which provides some support for asphalt prices. It is expected that in the long run, attention will be paid to the demand for asphalt next year and the fluctuation of oil prices.