According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market continued to rise this week. The spot rubber market in China was around 13100 yuan/ton on February 29, up 1.55% from around 12900 yuan/ton on February 26.

This week, the natural rubber market has risen, with the Shanghai rubber 05 contract rising from 13750 yuan/ton to around 13900 yuan/ton. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 13500-13600 yuan/ton, bulk at around 12800-12900 yuan/ton, Vietnam imports latex bulk at around 11600-11800 yuan/ton, and domestically produced latex bulk at around 11700 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, raw material output is limited and prices remain high. On the Thai side, raw material output is limited and prices rise; Vietnam’s production areas have entered a shutdown period; China has entered a period of cutting cessation. At present, it is still in the off-season for seasonal construction, and some factories are shutting down. As of February 25, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao area was 666100 tons, a decrease of 9600 tons or 1.43% compared to the previous period.

On the demand side: During the holiday period, downstream tire production was low, and the demand side was weak. After the holiday, downstream tire production increased, providing certain support for styrene butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of the 22nd, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 6.3%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is around 45%.

Market forecast: Currently, there is a tight supply of raw materials both domestically and internationally, with domestic production areas entering a shutdown period and some foreign production areas entering a shutdown period. The strong prices of raw materials support the natural rubber market; At present, downstream factories are gradually resuming production, and the procurement of natural rubber may increase. However, downstream restocking may take some time, and it is expected that the natural rubber spot market will mainly consolidate at a high level in the near future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of refined petroleum coke in February declined. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries in February was 1682.50 yuan/ton on February 29th and 1735.00 yuan/ton on February 1st, with a monthly decline of 3.03%.

Cost side: In February, international crude oil prices fluctuated upwards. On the one hand, the instability of the Middle East situation still exists due to the disturbance of the geopolitical situation, which further pushed up the risk premium of crude oil. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish signal of delaying interest rate cuts has dampened market confidence.

Supply side: At the beginning of the month, downstream pre holiday procurement basically ended, logistics slowed down, refinery shipments slowed down, and prices fluctuated; Affected by widespread rain and snow weather after the holiday, transportation and logistics were hindered, and the local refined petroleum coke market had weak transactions, with prices continuing to decline; At present, downstream enterprises have a low enthusiasm for receiving goods, and the local refining petroleum coke market is under pressure for shipments, with refineries reducing prices for shipments.

On the demand side, the price of metal silicon slightly declined in February and is generally in a downward cycle. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of February 29, 2024, the reference price for the domestic 441 # metal silicon market is 15290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.11% from the beginning of the month. The fundamentals of silicon metal in February were in a state of weak supply and demand, as the supply side continued to contract due to the Spring Festival holiday, and the operating rates of factories in various regions remained low; Downstream, the decrease in procurement operations due to holidays has resulted in a bearish supply and demand situation, leading to a price decline. At present, the support of metallic silicon for petroleum coke is still acceptable.

At present, the shipment of medium sulfur calcined coke is average, and some downstream aluminum carbon enterprises continue to suffer losses in production, with average purchasing sentiment. The aluminum carbon market mainly requires petroleum coke, while the demand for negative electrode materials is average. The pre calcined anode market is weak, and the calcined coke market is mainly volatile and consolidating.

In February, the electrolytic aluminum market was mainly weak and volatile, with downstream receiving sentiment being relatively negative. However, as the traditional consumption peak season approaches, downstream demand may gradually recover, and the production capacity operating rate of China’s leading aluminum downstream industry enterprises is expected to rise. At present, aluminum carbon enterprises mainly have a strong demand for petroleum coke.

Market forecast: In March, the coking plant in the refinery will enter the peak maintenance season, and the supply of petroleum coke from local refineries may decrease; But currently, downstream demand is limited, and the market maintains a focus on essential procurement; In addition, the continuous arrival of imported petroleum coke at the port may increase the storage of petroleum coke in the port. Overall, it is expected that there will be a certain upward trend in the price of refined petroleum coke in March.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11666 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon over the weekend was 11700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.29%.

The overall prices of domestic activated carbon manufacturers in February have slightly increased, with weak pre holiday transactions and low enthusiasm for manufacturer quotations. After the holiday, prices have resumed and inquiries have increased. The factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan/ton, and the market mostly follows orders, with a focus on post holiday market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in areas such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially gold charcoal, which receives more inquiries from the African market; The supply of fruit shell charcoal with medium to low indicators is smoother. There is a recent rebound in imported carbonized materials, and the industry can pay more attention to it.

Prediction: Enquiries in the activated carbon market are increasing, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

Price trend

In the week after the holiday, the domestic EVA market remained stable and relatively strong, with spot prices steadily rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 26th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11866.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+1.42% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market has been stable and rising recently, with high demand from domestic EVA enterprises on the supply side. Last week, the average operating rate was around 93%. However, the inventory of petrochemical plants is low, and the market supply is relatively tight. The willingness of petrochemical plants to support the market is clear, and EVA suppliers have a strong support for spot goods.

From the demand side perspective, the current EVA terminal enterprises have not fully resumed work, the stocking situation has not been fully released, and the logic of just in need consumption remains unchanged. Merchants are affected by the manufacturer’s price increase, actively reporting high prices and showing reluctance to sell. The demand side generally supports EVA, but there is a warming trend in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the price of EVA has shifted from a sideways trend to an upward trend after the holiday. The support of raw material market for EVA spot is moderate. The industry load is high, and the inventory of petrochemical plants is low, maintaining a strong market. At the end of the month, there was no pressure to attempt a higher report in the midstream, while downstream consumer demand was flat, but there were expectations for a higher volume in early March. Therefore, it is expected that the EVA market will continue to be strong in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of acetic acid has remained stable recently. On February 7th, the average market price of acetic acid was 330 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 3300 yuan/ton on February 1st, with a month on month increase of 4.76%.

Recently, the acetic acid market has remained stable. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream companies are gradually entering a state of vacation, with weakened purchasing enthusiasm and a weak market trading atmosphere. At the same time, the northern regions of Central China are affected by weather, logistics transportation is limited, factory shipments are poor, manufacturers are hesitant, and acetic acid quotations remain stable and operate on a wait-and-see basis. As of February 7th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ February 7th/ February 7th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 0

North China region/ 3275 yuan/ton/ 3250 yuan/ton/ -25

Shandong region/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 0

Jiangsu region/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 3050 yuan/ton/ -75

Zhejiang region/ 3225 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ -75

The upstream raw material methanol market is relatively strong and rising. On February 7th, the average price in the domestic market was 2640.00 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 3.06% compared to the price of 2561.67 yuan/ton on February 1st. Domestic methanol plants are gradually recovering, and production enterprises still face supply pressure, with some enterprises still having inventory demand before the holiday. Affected by rainy and snowy weather, it has placed a burden on the unloading speed. At the same time, the transportation cost from the northwest production area to the sales area market has increased, leading to a significant increase in domestic methanol prices.

The downstream acetic anhydride market remains stable and watchful. On February 7th, the ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5875 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the price of 5875 yuan/ton on February 1st. As the Spring Festival approaches, some acetic anhydride enterprises have suspended production, resulting in a decrease in acetic anhydride supply, stable raw material acetic acid prices, and weak cost support. At the same time, downstream acetic anhydride enterprises have started production at a low level, resulting in poor demand for acetic anhydride. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price of acetic anhydride is operating steadily.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Business Society believes that as the Spring Festival approaches, the market is mostly in a state of delisting and vacation. Acetic acid companies have stable quotations, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average. The trading atmosphere on the market is weak, and it is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will remain stable and operate on a wait-and-see basis. In the future, attention will be paid to the situation of downstream replenishment after the holiday.

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of February 5th, the average price of domestic transparent grade premium PMMA was 15666.67 yuan/ton. This week, PMMA prices have remained stable, with limited price fluctuations compared to the same period last week. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and there is limited room for upward movement.

This week, the domestic market for transparent grade premium PMMA products has been operating steadily, with no significant price changes compared to the same period last week. The downstream procurement atmosphere is flat, with on-demand procurement being the main focus and overall market demand being insufficient. Currently, the mainstream manufacturer’s quotation range is still around 15500 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. Downstream orders are mainly small, with weak cost support and unclear downstream hoarding willingness, Enterprise quotation: Shanghai Hongqi Plasticization Technology Co., Ltd. 14800 yuan/ton.

Rubber Index: On February 4th, the rubber index was 668 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 36.98% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 26.52% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Business Society PMMA analysts believe that in the short term, the PMMA market will mainly operate steadily, with mainstream prices maintaining 15500 yuan/ton.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as the Spring Festival approaches, the hydrogen peroxide market remains stable, with prices ranging from 750 to 800 yuan/ton.

As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the hydrogen peroxide market continues to be weak and stable

Since February, the domestic hydrogen peroxide market has gradually stabilized, and the stocking market for terminal printing and paper manufacturers has come to an end. The market purchasing and sales are sluggish, and there is currently no fluctuation in the hydrogen peroxide market. As of February 4th, the mainstream price in Shandong region is around 780 yuan/ton, which is stable, while the mainstream price in Anhui region is 830 yuan/ton, which is generally stable.

Business Society Chemical Analyst believes that after the holiday, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals has improved, and the hydrogen peroxide market is expected to see an upward trend in the future.

Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart, it can be seen that the price of para xylene has slightly increased this week. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of para xylene was 8700 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.0% from the beginning of the week’s price of 8600 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 2.18%.

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical has restarted, but some units are still undergoing maintenance, and spot supply is normal. This week, the international crude oil price trend has declined, and PX external prices have slightly decreased. As of the 1st, the closing price in Asia is 995-997 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1020-1022 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region is normal. Last week, crude oil prices increased significantly, and the domestic xylene market prices slightly increased.

Recently, the international crude oil price trend has fallen. As of the 1st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $73.82 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $78.70 per barrel. The crude oil market has declined this week, partly due to concerns about future demand, and the news is bearish for the crude oil market. On the other hand, US crude oil inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels to 4219.1 million barrels, leading to an increase in US crude oil inventories and a decline in oil prices; Overall, crude oil prices are still in a wide range of fluctuations, with slight adjustments in the domestic market price of xylene.

The domestic PTA spot market is on the rise, with an average price of 6020 yuan/ton in the East China market as of the weekend, an increase of 0.22% from the price of 6007 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. From the recent changes in PTA’s own equipment, the industry’s operating rate has slightly decreased to around 82%, but there is still pressure from sufficient supply of goods. The downstream polyester production load is 81%, and the polyester filament market is cautious and cautious, with terminal orders gradually becoming lighter. Recently, the production of autumn and winter fabrics for domestic sales has gradually come to an end, and orders for spring and summer fabrics have been issued one after another. However, there is sufficient supply of goods, and there are many factories selling inventory at low prices. Weaving factories are under increasing pressure to lose money, and the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving continues to decline to around 21%. The demand for downstream terminals has not improved, and the increase in PX market is limited due to this impact.

Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society PX, believes that there is not much change in the domestic PX supply. The upstream crude oil market is a long short game, and overall, crude oil prices remain mainly fluctuating in the range. There is not much change in the operation of downstream PTA maintenance equipment in the early stage, but with the gradual holiday of the textile industry, the downstream polyester operation load has decreased, and terminal demand has weakened. It is expected that the price trend of the xylene market will remain stable in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of urea in Shandong Province fluctuated and fell in January: urea prices dropped from 2485 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2431.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.15%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.69% at the end of the month.

On January 31, the urea commodity index was 113.10, an increase of 0.54 points from yesterday, a decrease of 25.75% from the highest point in the cycle of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 103.42% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong slightly decreased in January.

Cost side: Upstream market drops significantly

Price details of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) in January

January 1st, January 15th, January 31st

Yangquan 960 yuan/ton 960 yuan/ton 960 yuan/ton

From a cost perspective: After New Year’s Day, there are many heavy vehicles in the market, limited downstream delivery capacity, poor market trading, and a strong bearish sentiment. Environmental protection control has been strengthened in some regions, industrial demand has weakened, and liquid factories have lowered prices to digest inventory. The price of liquefied natural gas fluctuated widely in January, dropping from 5510 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5490 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.36%. The lowest point was 4452 yuan/ton on January 19th, with a maximum amplitude of 26.82% during the month. The price at the end of the month decreased by 10.06% year-on-year. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washed fast) has stabilized at a low level, with a price of around 960 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia has dropped significantly, from 3623.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3236.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 10.67%, and a year-on-year decrease of 23.54% at the end of the month. Overall, the upstream market for urea has experienced a significant decline, with insufficient cost support.

Demand side: Low price consolidation of melamine

From the demand side, agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, and urea exports are currently not favorable. Agricultural sporadic fertilization. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants is average, and their enthusiasm for purchasing urea is normal. Board and melamine enterprises generally start construction, with a focus on procurement for immediate needs. In January, the price of melamine stabilized at a low level, with a price of 7475 yuan/ton. From a supply perspective, maintenance companies have resumed production, with a daily urea production of around 160000 tons and average supply.

In the future, the urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in mid to early February. The price of liquefied natural gas has dropped significantly, with insufficient cost support. The daily production of urea is about 160000 tons, and the supply is average. Agricultural demand is currently not favorable, with industrial demand being the main focus. In the future, urea may experience a slight fluctuation and decline.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the stearic acid market showed a trend of first falling and then rising this month. The domestic average price of stearic acid was 8220 yuan/ton on January 1, and 17675 yuan/ton on January 31, with a price increase of 1.82% during the period.

Cause analysis

Cost side: After New Year’s Day, the palm oil market has declined one after another, and after the decline, it has rebounded, mainly oscillating upwards. As the Spring Festival approaches, the stocking market for terminal catering enterprises has started, with demand supporting, and the palm oil market continues to rise. Malaysian palm oil in the external market is currently in a period of reduced production, with bullish support and a significant increase in palm oil prices.

Demand side: Downstream PVC spot market prices first fell and then rose, and overall prices fell. In the first half of this month, the spot market price of PVC fell. The enthusiasm for market inquiries is average, and market transactions are light. In the middle of the month, the trading situation was average. In the latter half of the month, the spot market stopped falling and rose, and the futures market experienced four consecutive rises, driving confidence in the spot market and improving the trading atmosphere. PVC maintenance has gradually resumed, and the operating rate has increased compared to December. In mid to early January, the load rate of the domestic semi steel tire industry was around 7.8 floors, while the load rate of the full steel tire industry was around 6.2 floors. But as the Spring Festival approaches, some steel tire companies will start their holidays in late January, but some steel tire companies are still operating at high loads to prepare for post holiday shipments.

Future Market Forecast

This month, the stearic acid market showed a trend of first falling and then rising. After the price of raw palm fell, it rebounded and began to fluctuate and rise. Therefore, it has provided favorable support for the cost of stearic acid. Although the downstream device load has increased compared to December, the on-site inventory is loose, and the market purchases stearic acid spot on demand. Overall, it is expected that the market for stearic acid will mainly fluctuate in the later stage.