In April, the butadiene styrene rubber market first rose and then fell, with a narrow range consolidation. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the price of butadiene benzene 1502 was at 13416 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.06% from 13425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point in the cycle was 13533 yuan/ton.

In April, butadiene styrene rubber slightly decreased, and there was not much pressure on the supply side; Downstream tire production has slightly declined, with on-demand inquiries for the butadiene styrene rubber market and slightly weaker support for rigid demand; The prices of raw materials such as butadiene and styrene have slightly increased, while the cost support for butadiene styrene rubber remains strong. The market for butadiene styrene rubber is supported by costs and demand, but as marginal demand weakens, the high price of butadiene styrene rubber has slightly fallen.

Part of the devices have been operating at reduced loads, and the production of butadiene styrene rubber in April slightly decreased, dropping from 6.6% at the beginning of the month to around 6.2% at the end of the month.

In April, the prices of butadiene and styrene raw materials for butadiene styrene rubber slightly increased, supporting the cost side of butadiene styrene rubber.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the price of butadiene was 11712 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.63% from 11525 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of April 30th, the price of styrene was 9637 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.16% from 9342 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: Downstream tire production has slightly weakened, weakening support for butadiene styrene rubber. It is understood that as of the end of April, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 80%; The production of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong region increased from 6.8% at the beginning of the month to around 7.1% in the middle of the month, and then continued to decline to 6.4% at the end of the month; Downstream customers tend to stock up on demand, resulting in lackluster market transactions.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the prices of raw materials such as butadiene and styrene are operating at high levels, and the cost of butadiene styrene rubber is currently supported strongly; In addition, the production of butadiene styrene rubber is at a low level, and the pressure on the supply side of butadiene styrene rubber is not high; The current downstream production of all steel tires has slightly decreased, while the production of half steel tires is at a high level, which provides weak support for the rigid demand for butadiene styrene rubber. Overall, the butadiene styrene rubber market may consolidate in the later stage.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mixed xylene market rose first and then fell in April. On April 30th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7680 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.32% from 7580 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 3.15% from the high point of 7930 yuan/ton in the cycle.

The international crude oil price range fluctuates, and the support for mixed xylene in the later stage is weak

The international crude oil price range fluctuated in April, with continued support for the cost of mixed xylene in the early stage and weakened support for mixed toluene due to the decline in prices at the end of the month. As of April 30th, the closing price of WTI06 contract is $81.52 per barrel; The Brent 07 contract closed at $85.92 per barrel. The high prices of mixed xylene in Asia provide support for the domestic market, with prices of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia ranging from $990-991 per ton as of April 30th.

The production of xylene has significantly decreased, and the demand support for mixed xylene has weakened

In April, domestic PX production declined and the market remained stable. In mid to early April, some devices were shut down for maintenance, and PX production decreased from 8.4% to around 6.9%; In mid to late April, some maintenance equipment restarted, and the domestic PX production slightly increased to around 7.1%. It is understood that the 800000 ton/year PX unit of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical will be shut down for maintenance starting from April 4th; The 2.6 million ton/year PX unit of Guangdong Petrochemical was put into operation at reduced load on April 10th; Three sets of PX devices at Zhejiang Petrochemical were reduced in load, and one set of PX was repaired at the end of March; The 1 million ton/year PX plant of Urumqi Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance on April 14th; The Henry Petrochemical 2.5 million ton/year PX unit was shut down for maintenance on April 16th.

The production of phthalic anhydride is basically stable, and the demand support for mixed xylene is weak

The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is running smoothly, and Anhui Tongling ortho phthalic anhydride is starting to be shipped normally. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant of Xinyang Group is running stably, and Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride is operating normally. Recently, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is around 60%, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal. The production situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. In April, the price of industrial naphthalene slightly increased, and the market of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has risen, which has affected the price of ortho phthalic anhydride to rise.

Slow recovery of domestic mixed production and weak support for mixed xylene demand

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for mixed xylene is weak. As of the end of April, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 6.9.

The inventory of mixed xylene at the port is still at a high level, and supply pressure still exists

The inventory of mixed xylene at the port has slightly decreased, but overall it remains at a high level, and there is still pressure on the supply side of mixed xylene. It is understood that as of April 25th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 75000 tons, a decrease of about 13000 tons compared to late February.

Expected decrease in supply of mixed xylene for planned maintenance of multiple devices

Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics were shut down for maintenance on April 7th. In the later stage, there are still maintenance plans for toluene mixed xylene units such as Zhenhai Refining, Zhenghe Petrochemical, Dushanzi Petrochemical, and Dalian Xitai in May and June. Overall, the expected decline in toluene supply in the later stage provides some support for the toluene market.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, the international crude oil sector will consolidate in the short term, with weak support for mixed xylene costs; Downstream PX and mixed blending industries saw a slight decline in production, while the phthalic anhydride industry saw a low level of production, resulting in overall weak support for mixed xylene demand; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will first be suppressed and then increase in the later stage.

Price trend

In April, the domestic POM market stabilized after a decline, and spot prices were adjusted and put into operation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 12700 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.24% from the price level on April 1st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

The domestic methanol market rose horizontally in April, with gains concentrated in the second half of the month. In the early stage, the fundamentals of methanol were moderately competitive, but later due to the digestion of social inventory positions, the market supply and demand tended to be balanced. Combined with downstream pre holiday stocking in the second half of the month, the market atmosphere has warmed up, driving up methanol prices and supporting the cost side of POM.

In terms of supply:

In April, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises fell from a high level. During this period, Tangshan Zhonghao and Yankuang Luhua underwent maintenance and reduced their load, resulting in an overall load reduction of about 9% or 70%. The synchronous reduction in production has partially digested the inventory position of the enterprise. Some manufacturers have implemented pricing adjustments. However, there is some news of device resumption after the holiday, and the market confidence in the future is insufficient. Overall, there is an expectation of a rebound in supply pressure.

In terms of demand:

In April, the inventory situation of domestic POM downstream enterprises was average, with most of them needing to purchase goods to maintain production. At the beginning of the month, POM took over the previous weak market, and buyers had a certain level of waiting for a decline. During the Qingming holiday, businesses were delisted and trading on the exchange was suspended. In the middle of the month, the main logic for factories to purchase goods is to maintain and digest inventory, and the flow rate of goods on site is still poor. The release of stocking before the Qingming Festival at the end of the month is not significant, and the consumption level still continues to follow the previous weak trend. Traders have poor credibility and may engage in underreporting or profit taking operations. Overall, the demand side has poor support for POM spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

After the decline in the POM market trend in April, it was sorted out. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has significantly declined, but there are many enterprises resuming work after the holiday. Although the pressure on the supply side has eased, there are also expectations of a return. Downstream consumer follow-up remains weak, with no significant release of pre holiday stocking. At present, the bullish trend of POM is gradually digesting, and it is expected that the market may weaken after the holiday.

Weak consolidation of plasticizer DOTP prices in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 29th, the price of DOTP was 9937.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.73% compared to the price of 10112.50 yuan/ton on April 1st. In March, the price of DOTP plummeted by 13.89%. In April, the decline in DOTP slowed down, and in April, the price of DOTP remained weak and consolidated

In April, the price of isooctanol fluctuated slightly and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 29th, the price of isooctanol was 9700 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 3.58% compared to the price of 10060 yuan/ton on April 1st. In April, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell. In April, the price of isooctanol did not continue the downward trend in March. The price of isooctanol remained low and consolidated, while the price of raw material propylene fluctuated and consolidated. Cost support was insufficient, and the downward pressure on isooctanol increased. The upward momentum weakened; Downstream customers have average purchasing enthusiasm, with limited support from isooctanol.

In April, the price of phthalic anhydride first rose and then fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 29th, the price of phthalic anhydride was quoted at 7720 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 0.23% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride at 7737.50 yuan/ton on April 21st; Compared to April 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and increased by 1.75% to 7587.50 yuan/ton. Cost support, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and increased in the first and second half of the year; Poor demand has led to a decline in the price of phthalic anhydride in the latter half of the year, while the high price of phthalic anhydride in Naifa has fallen, and the support for the rise of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries has weakened.

Downstream spring maintenance is less than expected

In April, downstream enterprises began spring maintenance one after another, with an increase in enterprise maintenance. This year, the demand for plastic products in the market has been sluggish, and the order situation is lower than expected, resulting in limited growth in demand for plasticizers. There is still downward pressure on the demand side of plasticizers in the future. In April, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises decreased month on month, but the maintenance of enterprises did not meet expectations, and the capacity utilization rate of enterprises increased year-on-year. The maintenance is mainly concentrated in mid April, and in the latter half of the year, the maintenance enterprises gradually recover, with a slow increase in production and strong demand for plasticizers.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of raw materials, the price of isooctanol fluctuates and falls, the price of phthalic anhydride first rises and then falls, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP decreases; In terms of supply, the high starting point of plasticizer DOTP is stable, and the supply of plasticizer DOTP is sufficient; In terms of demand, downstream manufacturers conducted centralized maintenance in April, resulting in a decrease in enterprise production. However, the maintenance did not meet expectations, and there is still support for the demand for plasticizer DOTP. In the future, the cost support for plasticizer DOTP will decrease, and there will be significant demand support. It is expected that DOTP prices will consolidate at a low level in the future.

The acrylic acid market rose in April. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 28th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 6825.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.60% compared to April 1st (the reference price of acrylic acid was 6525 yuan/ton).

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that after the continuous increase in acrylic acid prices in April, it remained stable and operated on a wait-and-see basis.

In the first half of the month, cost support was still acceptable, with companies mainly executing pre received orders in the early stage, with tight spot prices and supply side pressure free support for continuous increases in acrylic acid prices. The downstream inquiry atmosphere was active, and there was a high intention to replenish at low prices. The follow-up of high priced raw materials was relatively cautious, and the overall performance of the demand side was average, with a focus on continuing rigid demand procurement.

In the second half of the month, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated and fell, with some equipment fluctuating. Costs and supply support still exist. Downstream companies chose to lower their rigid demand and stock up in moderation before the holiday, and their follow-up to high prices is still average. Most production companies remained stable in their quotes, while distributors mainly followed the market and shipped according to the market.

Raw material propylene: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on April 26th, the reference price of propylene was 6852.60, an increase of 0.06% compared to April 1st (6848.60). In April, raw material propylene operated in a narrow range of fluctuations, providing sufficient support for the acrylic acid market.

Future Market Forecast:

According to acrylic acid analysts from Business Society, the current cost impact is limited, and there is currently no pressure on supply side inventory. With downstream stocking gradually approaching its end, the market atmosphere is slowing down, and transactions are mainly in demand. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the prices of industrial grade lithium carbonate and battery grade lithium carbonate have remained stable and slightly decreased this week. On April 25, 2024, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 108400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55% compared to the average price of 109000 yuan/ton on April 21. On April 25th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 115400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% compared to the average price of 115800 yuan/ton on April 21st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate has remained stable this week, with only a slight decrease. In terms of supply, according to customs data, the import of domestic lithium carbonate in March was about 19043 tons, a month on month increase of about 64%, reflecting a more significant growth rate in the import supply of domestic lithium carbonate. With the rise of domestic temperatures, the mining and production of lithium salts have been relatively smooth. Apart from long-term cooperative orders, lithium salt enterprises have continued to maintain a positive attitude towards selling individual orders, and the price of individual orders has not changed significantly.

In terms of demand, downstream enterprises such as positive electrodes have already purchased and supplemented lithium carbonate sources due to the lower prices in the early stage. However, after the price of selling sources in the current market has increased, trading enterprises have no intention of purchasing with the increase. However, most enterprises have completed the stocking during the May Day period, and currently have no urgent purchasing ideas. They are generally waiting for lower or more favorable prices in the future market before proceeding with essential purchases, resulting in a relatively light overall situation of individual transactions in the market.

The market situation of lithium hydroxide is mixed, and recently, due to the decline in lithium carbonate prices, some smelting end enterprises have been driven by the resonance of their emotions and cost factors, resulting in a decline in high prices. At present, the inventory level of the lithium hydroxide industry is relatively low, and smelting enterprises are generally hoarding and reluctant to sell, with a strong sentiment of price support. At present, the demand for high nickel in the downstream is steadily increasing. Due to the upcoming May Day holiday, the market will have transportation restrictions for nearly a week, which to some extent has caused some downstream positive electrode enterprises to stage pre holiday stocking, leading to an increase in demand for essential goods.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate is operating steadily. Due to the recent multidimensional stability of raw material prices of iron phosphate and lithium carbonate, the price of lithium iron phosphate is temporarily stable. However, the discount for purchasing lithium iron phosphate from downstream leading battery manufacturers is still relatively low, and positive electrode factories are more inclined to hope for customer supply. In addition, the export volume of lithium iron phosphate has increased, and the market demand support is relatively favorable.

In terms of futures, the price of lithium carbonate futures first rose and then fell, but the price has not yet moved out of the volatile range. On April 25th, the opening price of the LC2407 main contract was 110500 yuan/ton, the closing price was 109600 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 112650 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.86%. The transaction volume was 158100 lots and the position was 176148 lots.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Carbonate, based on the current supply and demand situation, some lithium salt companies still have a strong attitude towards individual orders and price increases. However, the procurement of raw material reserves during the May Day holiday in the downstream market has also been basically completed, resulting in a slight decline in the overall transaction price center of the spot market. There is no urgent purchasing intention in the market, and it is expected that the spot price of lithium carbonate will remain stable in the short term, while observing changes in demand.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of April 24, 2024, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 8283 yuan/ton. Compared with April 17, 2024 (reference price of butanone was 8200 yuan/ton), the price increased by 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.02%.

Looking back at the mid April period, the domestic butanone market saw a significant increase. After entering late April, the domestic butanone market as a whole continued to move upwards. On the 22nd and 23rd, the domestic butanone market prices continued to adjust upwards, with an adjustment range of about 50-100 yuan/ton. As of the 24th, the domestic market price of butanone is based on around 8150-8500 yuan/ton.

Fundamental analysis

In terms of demand: Currently, the trading atmosphere on the exchange is quiet and mild, with downstream new orders mainly being cautious purchases for first-time needs. The overall support for the butanone market from the demand side is average.

In terms of cost: As April approaches, the carbon tetracarbon market for butanone raw material ether continues to rise, and the support provided by the cost side to butanone gradually strengthens. The overall trend of the butanone market is more obvious with the “original” upward trend.

Supply side: Currently, some butanone factories are executing preliminary orders, and the overall supply pressure on the butanone field is relatively low. The supply side provides certain support to the market situation.

Market analysis of butanone

At present, the butanone factory is mainly supported by cost support and relatively low supply pressure, maintaining a strong operation. However, the overall downstream demand for butanone has generally boosted, and the downstream market is still cautious in purchasing raw materials. Business Society butanone data analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly adjust its operation range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 23, the average market price of monoethanolamine was 10500 yuan/ton, and on April 15, the average market price of monoethanolamine was 10620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.13% from last week.

In terms of cost:

Recently, the market for ethylene oxide has been fluctuating continuously, with mainstream prices showing a strong upward trend. Currently, ethylene oxide is showing a trapezoidal upward trend. According to data from Business Society, as of April 19th, the average market price of ethylene oxide in China is 7000 yuan/ton; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6900-7000 yuan/ton for external transactions; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 7000 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in North China is 7000 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the central China market is 7000 yuan/ton.

From the industrial chain diagram, ethanolamine, as a downstream product of ethylene oxide, accounts for 11%. Recently, the production enterprises of ethanolamine have been stable, with moderate profit levels and no significant fluctuations. Due to its wide range of uses, monoethanolamine has been applied in various fields such as textiles, printing and dyeing, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, etc. Therefore, its market demand is relatively stable and there has been no significant growth point.

On April 23rd, the standard price of liquid amino in Shengyishe was 2883.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -13.24% compared to the beginning of this month (3323.33 yuan/ton). The main reason is that the maintenance equipment has resumed work one after another, the supply side has shown loose performance, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, the peak season for agricultural demand procurement is approaching, industrial demand remains in high demand, and the sluggish demand side has suppressed the price of liquid ammonia.

Weak terminal demand:

As an important organic chemical raw material, monoethanolamine has a wide and diverse range of application scenarios on the demand side. In the chemical industry, monoethanolamine is a key intermediate in the synthesis of important compounds such as ethylenediamine and N, N-dimethylethanolamine, which is of great significance for the construction of basic chemical products such as resins, solvents, and coatings. In the textile industry, monoethanolamine is used as a solvent for the production of reactive dyes and pigments, playing an irreplaceable role in improving dyeing quality and efficiency. Meanwhile, in the papermaking industry, monoethanolamine is also used as a paper sizing agent and pigment dispersant.

However, the downstream demand for monoethanolamine is currently average and has not shown a significant growth trend. This is mainly because the market has become saturated, and the growth rate of downstream industries is gradually slowing down, which brings certain pressure to the growth of demand for monoethanolamine. In addition, some downstream industries are subject to certain restrictions on production activities under the influence of environmental policies, which also has a negative impact on the demand for monoethanolamine.

Overall

It is expected that the price of monoethanolamine will remain stable in the short term and there will be no significant breakthrough. For production enterprises, they should pay attention to market dynamics, arrange production plans reasonably, control costs, improve product quality, and respond to possible market changes.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the toluene market has recently seen a slight increase and has been consolidating and running. On April 22nd, the benchmark price of toluene was 7770 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.78% from 7710 yuan/ton on April 15th.

International crude oil fluctuates and falls, toluene cost support weakens

Recently (4.15-4.22), due to the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, weakened demand expectations, and the suppression of conflict risk premiums, international crude oil prices have fluctuated and fallen, weakening support for the cost of toluene. As of April 19th, WTI06 contract settlement is 82.22 USD/barrel; Brent 06 contract settlement is $87.29 per barrel. The price of toluene in Asia has fluctuated at a high level, with CFR China’s toluene price at $940 per ton as of April 22 and May.

The production of xylene has significantly decreased, and the demand for toluene has weakened

The starting price of xylene has dropped to a high level, and PX units such as Urumqi Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Ningbo Zhongjin have successively shut down for maintenance. Domestic PX production has significantly decreased, and as of April 22, PX production has slightly decreased to around 70%. The price of PX in the Asian outer market has slightly decreased, which still provides some support for the domestic PX market. As of April 22, the closing price in the Asian region was 1026 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1051 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for toluene mixed blending is weak. As of April 18th, the operating rate of refineries nationwide has remained around 70%.

Maintaining high levels of port inventory puts certain pressure on the toluene market

Domestic toluene port inventory remains high, with East China toluene inventory at 75000 tons and South China toluene inventory at 5000 tons as of April 18th.

There are still plans for equipment maintenance in the later stage, and it is expected that the supply of toluene will decrease

The Jin’ao Technology reforming unit was shut down for maintenance in April, and toluene was sold without quantity; Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics were shut down for maintenance on April 7th. There are still maintenance plans for the equipment in May and June in the later period, and overall, the expected decline in the supply of toluene in the later period provides some support for the toluene market.

Future Market Forecast:

From a technical perspective, the toluene index chart of Business Society shows that the 7-day moving average has been above the 30 day moving average since the beginning of the year and is showing an upward trend. During this period, the price of toluene gradually increased; At present, the 7-day moving average is still operating above the 30 day moving average, and the toluene market is still supported by the 30 day moving average in the short term.

From a fundamental perspective, currently international crude oil prices are fluctuating and falling, with the cost center of toluene shifting downwards; Secondly, the demand for downstream oil adjustment and disproportionation reaction is lower than expected; The maintenance plan for the toluene plant in the near future will to some extent alleviate the pressure on the toluene supply side. It is expected that the toluene market may slightly weaken in the later stage.

The acrylic acid market is generally stable this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 19th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 6825.00 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to Monday’s price.

Cost side:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price for propylene on April 18th was 6914.60, an increase of 0.96% compared to April 1st (6848.60). Recently, the propylene raw material market has been operating strongly, and costs have increased in the face of support from the acrylic acid market.

Supply and demand side:

Recently, the overall operating rate of the industry has improved compared to the previous period, but there is still support from the supply side. Most production enterprises have reported stable market trends, while dealers mainly follow the market and ship according to market conditions. Downstream buyers have chosen to follow suit with a moderate amount of low demand. The market mentality is cautious, and the transaction atmosphere is average.

Future Market Forecast:

The acrylic acid analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, cost and supply side support may continue, but the wait-and-see sentiment of end users is obvious, and downstream demand is average. Be cautious when buying on dips in the market, and it is expected that the acrylic acid market may remain stagnant in the short term. More attention should be paid to downstream pre holiday stocking demand.