1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 1st to 16th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market fell from 10100.00 yuan/ton to 9866.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34% during the period and a year-on-year increase of 2.47%. The raw material pure benzene first rose and then fell, with some cost support. Downstream demand is weak, and the domestic cyclohexanone market is operating weakly, with a lower focus on transactions.

2、 Market analysis

Cost aspect:

Raw material pure benzene: Raw material pure benzene first rose and then fell, the market’s mentality towards the future changed, and the negotiation differences between buyers and sellers widened, resulting in a slowdown in transactions. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%, and the market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone. In the short term, the cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

Supply side:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the current operating load of cyclohexanone is around 7.3%, which has decreased compared to last week. The main production enterprises, Shijiazhuang Coking, Yangmei Fengxi, Shandong Hongda, Jining Zhongyin, Shandong Haili, and Jiangsu Haili, produced more than 110000 tons of cyclohexanone this week, an increase from last week.

Demand side:

The cyclohexanone plant is mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the most important downstream of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market continues to decline, with upstream pure benzene prices first rising and then falling this week. Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price has been raised by 100 yuan to execute 8500 yuan/ton, forming certain support on the cost side. Downstream is steadily advancing, acting cautiously, and the pace of raw material procurement is slowing down. In addition, with some units returning to normal, the tight supply situation in the early stage has eased, and the market trading price center is gradually decreasing. The temporary storage of cyclohexanone demand is negative.

3、 Future forecast

The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased, with some cost support. Downstream demand for cyclohexanone is bearish, and analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the short-term domestic cyclohexanone market needs to closely monitor the reaction of downstream industries.

Weak ethylene glycol prices in August

The price of ethylene glycol was relatively weak in August. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of August 16th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4571.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.90% from the average price of 4561.67 yuan/ton in the East China market on August 1st. The prices in each region are as follows:

The spot price range for mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4500-4900 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4550 yuan/ton, and the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4500 yuan/ton for external execution; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4550 yuan/ton.

On August 16, 2024, the basis of the spot contract for ethylene glycol at the port is near low and far high. Next week, the basis quotation will be+40 to+44; The basis of forward contracts is relatively strong, with a base price of 58-62 yuan/ton in September and 63-68 yuan/ton in October.

On August 16th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained basically stable, with a domestic price range of 4150-4330 yuan/ton, including tax.

On August 15, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was 539 US dollars/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was 550 US dollars/ton.

Reasons for the price drop in August:

1. Port inventory rebounds

The destocking of port inventory is clearly one of the main supporting factors for early prices. Entering August, the inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China has stopped falling and stabilized, rising. As of August 15th, the inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 614900 tons, a slight increase from 576700 tons on July 25th.

The benefits brought by the decrease in explicit inventory at the port in the early stage have been basically realized with the rise in prices. After reaching a new high this year, the expected increase in domestic supply and the anticipated increase in port arrivals have constrained the continued rise of ethylene glycol prices.

2. Due to the impact of macro fundamentals, the price of ethylene glycol in the external market has been narrowly adjusted.

August ethylene glycol plant dynamics

In terms of coal production equipment, multiple sets of coal production equipment are expected to undergo maintenance.

In terms of overseas facilities, the 828000 ton/year ethylene glycol plant in South Asia, USA, has recently been shut down for maintenance due to a utility malfunction, and the restart time is yet to be determined; 1 # 360000 tons are currently operating stably. Two sets of ethylene glycol plants in Canada, one with a capacity of 480000 tons per year and the other with a capacity of 400000 tons per year, are scheduled to be shut down for maintenance in early October, with an estimated time of about a week.

Future expectations

At present, the absolute amount of explicit inventory in ports is still relatively low. Although there has been a slight accumulation of inventory recently, there is not much room for inventory to continue to rise. The main considerations are as follows:

1. Polyester production is recovering, with active procurement at low prices;

2. The overseas supply has been weak, mainly due to the relatively concentrated arrival of contracted goods at the port in the second half of August. However, since September, there has been a shortage of external shipments of ethylene glycol, mainly due to the shutdown of some facilities in Saudi Arabia due to gas shortage since mid to late July, resulting in a significant reduction in Saudi supply;

3. Domestic supply and demand, currently the domestic supply and demand are basically balanced. On the demand side, the off-season of August demand will gradually pass, coupled with the concentrated production plan of bottle flakes in the third quarter, the demand expectation is good.

Therefore, in the short term, the fluctuation of ethylene glycol prices is the main trend, and there will be support for ethylene glycol prices after September.

The price of plasticizer DOP fell in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 12th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9111 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.09% compared to the DOP price of 9500 yuan/ton on August 1st at the beginning of the month. The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell. With the arrival of the hot and rainy season, PVC has entered a seasonal off-season in the industry. The low demand for plasticizers in China, coupled with reduced exports, has led to a decline in demand for plasticizers and a decrease in the willingness of plasticizer manufacturers to operate. As a result, the plasticizer market is in a low season, with manufacturers operating at low levels and weak follow-up on actual sales. The demand for plasticizers is poor, and there is significant downward pressure on plasticizers.

The price of raw material isooctanol has dropped

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 12th, the price of isooctanol was 9333.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 7.41% compared to the price of 9000 yuan/ton on August 1st. In August, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, downstream factories purchased according to demand, plasticizers were in low season, downstream enterprises had poor enthusiasm for raw material procurement, Shandong large factories sold at a discount, and the market transaction center shifted downwards, increasing the downward pressure on isooctanol.

The price of raw material phthalic anhydride has slightly decreased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the domestic phthalic anhydride market is weak and temporarily stable this week. As of August 12th, the price of phthalic anhydride in the phthalic anhydride market was 7875 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.16% from the price of 7887.50 yuan/ton on August 1st. Domestic neighboring phthalic anhydride is priced at 7700-7900 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic naphthalene phthalic anhydride is priced at 7300-7400 yuan/ton before leaving the factory. This week, the industrial naphthalene price fluctuated and stabilized, the naphthalene phthalic anhydride market stabilized, the ortho benzene market fell, the cost support decreased, and the ortho benzene phthalic anhydride market fell.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of raw material isooctanol has fallen, the price of phthalic anhydride has slightly decreased, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased; In terms of demand, during the off-season in downstream markets, the demand for plasticizers is weak, and the downward pressure on plasticizers is increasing. In the future, the cost of plasticizer raw materials will decrease, and downstream demand will be weak during the off-season. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and fall in the future

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of August 9th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China this week was 7966.67 yuan/ton, with cyclohexane prices remaining stable. Currently, downstream demand is average, and cyclohexane market inventory is running at a high level, resulting in slow shipments. Downstream purchases are mainly for essential needs, and businesses are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: In terms of upstream pure benzene, the pure benzene market was weak at first and then strong in August, and the supply of pure benzene is in a recovery state. Currently, the demand for essential goods is relatively stable. With the peak season in late August and the need for stocking during the National Day holiday, market prices will also show a strong trend.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the short-term cyclohexane market price is expected to remain stable with a weak trend. Currently, the upstream cost support is average, and downstream demand is weak. The mainstream price range for cyclohexane is 8000 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the xylene market first rose and then fell in July 2024. From July 1st to 31st, the domestic xylene market price fell from 7750 yuan/ton to 7660 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.16% during the period and a cumulative decrease of 110 yuan/ton.

In the first half of the month, the mixed xylene market is operating steadily with a moderate to strong trend, the crude oil market is trending steadily with a moderate to strong trend, and the cost support is good. On the supply and demand side, refinery inventory and port inventory are both low, and the xylene market is operating strongly due to tight supply. Downstream entry into the market is active, and market negotiations are good, driving the market upward. The mixed xylene market is stable, moderate, and strong.

Late of the month: The overall market for mixed xylene is declining, with refinery prices generally falling and inventory overall high. Port sources in East China are increasing, and market supply is generally loose. On the demand side, it is affected by the weak market atmosphere, with downstream companies maintaining rigid demand and replenishing inventory. Demand support is biased towards rigid demand, and there is a lack of demand support, resulting in an overall weak operation of the mixed xylene market.

On the cost side: In July 2024, the crude oil market first rose and then fell, with an overall wide decline. As of July 29, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.81 per barrel, a monthly decline of 6.85%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $79.05 per barrel, a monthly decrease of 6.83%. The crude oil analyst of Shengyi Society believes that on the one hand, the easing of the geopolitical situation is bearish on the crude oil market. In addition, the strengthening of the US dollar has affected economic activity in the United States due to hurricanes, putting pressure on crude oil demand and causing signs of a slowdown in US crude oil exports. On the other hand, there are also signs of slowing economic growth in the Eurozone and China, especially the decline in China’s crude oil imports, which has had a negative impact on the crude oil market. Overall, the crude oil market has declined during the cycle, with a negative rate of change in crude oil. Looking at the future: Currently, geopolitical instability continues to affect the market, OPEC+’s production reduction stance is firm, and the traditional peak season in the United States still holds positive news. Under the influence of both supply and demand, oil prices will continue to maintain a range oscillation pattern.

Supply side: During this cycle, Sinopec’s xylene quotations have generally decreased this week. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales of equipment. The company’s quotations remain unchanged from the previous day. As of the 31st, East China Company quoted 7750 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 7550 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 7650-7750 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 7600 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Phthalic anhydride and p-xylene markets continue to decline

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the phthalic anhydride market first rose and then fell in July. As of the 31st, the phthalic anhydride market in Shandong region has stabilized, and downstream factories maintain their essential purchases. High end transactions have been hindered, and the mainstream price for on-site ortho benzene source negotiations is 7600-7800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The mainstream price for naphthalene source negotiations is 7300-7500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month.

On July 31st, Sinopec announced the settlement price for xylene in July 2024, which was 8550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton from the settlement price in June 2024 and a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from the listing price in July. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of July 30th, the closing price of CFR China was $993/ton, which was $1044/ton at the beginning of the month and a cumulative decrease of $51/ton.

External market: During this cycle, the overall decline in Asian xylene external market has occurred. As of July 30th and August, FOB Korea closed at 857-859 US dollars per ton, with a cumulative decrease of 74 US dollars per ton; CFR China closed at $888/ton in August, with a cumulative decrease of $63/ton.

Market forecast: Limited support in the crude oil market, oil prices will continue to fluctuate in the low range, and there will be insufficient cost support. The overall supply of goods from ports in East China is on the rise, and the market supply has been relatively loose recently. From a demand perspective, the overall performance of the downstream market is weak, with the xylene market only maintaining a supply of essential goods. The xylene and PX external markets have both recently declined, dragging down market sentiment and weakening market expectations. Overall, the atmosphere in the xylene market is relatively weak, and it is expected that prices will remain stable, moderate, and weak in the short term.

Zinc prices have fluctuated downward this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 30th, the zinc price was 22490 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 7.2% compared to the zinc price of 24236 yuan/ton on July 1st.

Macro dynamics

The People’s Bank of China conducted its second MLF operation this month, cutting interest rates by 20 basis points beyond expectations. Analysis suggests that the increase in MLF operations this time has released a signal of easing, meeting the medium and long-term funding needs of financial institutions. The US GDP in the second quarter exceeded expectations, with a month on month growth of 2.8%. The core PCE price index fell to 2.9% month on month, still higher than expected. The implementation of the Fair Competition Review Regulations in August is expected to result in an increase in tax costs.

The inventory of zinc ingots in the Shanghai futures market decreased by 16975 tons compared to the beginning of the month

According to data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, as of July 29th, the zinc inventory level was 64863 tons, and as of July 1st, the zinc inventory level was 81838 tons, a decrease of 16975 tons from the beginning of the month.

The zinc ingot inventory in the London LME futures market decreased by 21300 tons compared to the beginning of the month

According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), as of July 29th, the inventory level of London zinc was 240550 tons. The LME market’s zinc ingot inventory continued to decline slightly, with a decrease of 21300 tons from the beginning of the month.

Raw material side message

The Huoshaoyun lead-zinc mine in Xinjiang is located in the central part of the Karakoram Mountains, with characteristics such as large deposit scale, high ore grade, and simple mining and processing technology. The total investment of the Xinjiang Huoshaoyun Lead Zinc Mine project is 26.17 billion yuan, including 12.221 billion yuan for mining engineering, 5.433 billion yuan for long-distance slurry transportation pipeline engineering, and 8.516 billion yuan for smelting engineering. At present, the mine has completed a total of 600000 cubic meters of stripping and extracted 60000 tons of ore.

Future forecast

Business Society data analysts believe that the tight supply situation in the mining sector in July has not yet reversed, and the uncertainty overseas has intensified the overall pessimistic expectations of the market. Market risk appetite has sharply declined, suppressing zinc prices. There have been recent news of overseas market resumption of production, but overall market consumption is currently poor. Domestic production remains sluggish, with demand pulling down the center of zinc prices. The fundamentals are mixed with long and short positions, and downstream purchases are made at low prices, resulting in significant destocking. Affected by external factors, the rebound ability of Shanghai zinc is insufficient, but with the support of the expected peak season of gold, silver, and silver, the short-term zinc price market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern.

Recently (7.17-7.29), the market price of Shunding rubber has slightly declined. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of July 29, the market price of Shunding rubber in East China was 15070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59% from 15160 yuan/ton on July 17. The price of raw material butadiene has fallen slightly from a high level; Shunding rubber production continues to remain low; Downstream tire production slightly decreased, overall inquiries were cautious, and there was slight resistance to high priced sources. Shunding rubber futures fell slightly from their high levels, and market trading remained flat.

Recently (7.17-7.29), the price of butadiene has fallen from a high level, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has slightly decreased, but overall there is still support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the price of butadiene was 12900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.71% from 13125 yuan/ton on July 17th.

Recently (7.17-7.29), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants has continued to maintain a low level. As of July 26, the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants is around 5.60%.

Demand side: Downstream tire production has slightly decreased, and demand is supported by weak demand in the butadiene rubber market. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources of goods. As of July 24th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.4%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the high price of raw material butadiene will fall, and there is still support for a slight decrease in the cost center of butadiene rubber; Shunding rubber production remains at a low level and the market supply is tight; Recently, downstream tire companies have seen a slight decrease in production and are cautious about purchasing Shunding rubber. Overall, the Shunding rubber market is expected to consolidate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market has remained stable this week, with an average price of 15783.33 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market remained stable this week. This week, the price of raw material titanium concentrate has risen, and the price of sulfuric acid has remained strong at a high level. The production cost pressure of titanium dioxide is still significant due to the influence of raw materials. This week, Longqi implemented preferential policies for distributors, resulting in an increase in pending orders for the company. Most manufacturers prioritize stable pricing, with some scarce brand sources experiencing slight price increases. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 15300-16200 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region has remained strong and upward. At present, the spot market is still tight, and the price of titanium ore is running at a high level. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises are generally in the market, and they are more cautious about titanium concentrate, with a focus on urgent needs and cautious procurement. As of now, the price of 38-42 grade titanium ore without tax is around 1600-1630 yuan/ton, the price of 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2250-2280 yuan/ton, and the price of 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2500-2630 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate continues to operate at a high level, and the specific transaction price will be discussed on a case by case basis.

3、 Future forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market remained stable this week, with some brands experiencing price increases. The overall market shipment situation is still acceptable. This week, the price of titanium concentrate has risen, the price of sulfuric acid remains high and firm, and the cost pressure of titanium dioxide is significant. In the short term, the market is mainly stable, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, domestic polyester filament prices fluctuated narrowly from July 15th to 21st. Currently, mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang offer POY (150D/48F) at 8030 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 9300-9500 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 8546 yuan/ton. During the week, the cost support of the polyester filament market gradually weakened, and there was a clear wait-and-see attitude in the market. The demand side was in the off-season, with average trading and stable quotes from polyester filament factories.

As of the close of July 18th in the crude oil market, the price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $82.82 per barrel, a decrease of 0.04%; The London Brent crude oil futures price for September delivery closed at $85.11 per barrel, an increase of 0.04%.

In terms of PTA, PTA prices have fallen this week, and currently the mainstream PTA quotation is around 5800-5900 yuan/ton for self pickup. As the operating rate rebounds and PTA fundamentals decline, it is expected that prices will remain volatile next week.

In terms of ethylene glycol, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated this week, and the mainstream quotation is currently around 4600-4700 yuan. At present, the fundamentals of the ethylene glycol market are good, and prices may be strong in the future.

In terms of polyester filament, currently, the market generally adopts a wait-and-see attitude, and the industry’s procurement activities appear to be more cautious, resulting in a slight decrease in downstream demand and terminal production load while maintaining stability. This trend has exacerbated the inventory backlog problem of major polyester filament producers, while the weak performance of the raw material market has also created additional pressure.

Business analysts believe that PTA fundamentals are weakening. The scorching summer heat has led to an increase in production cuts and a decrease in demand for polyester filament, which has significantly weakened the market demand for polyester filament. In the short term, although mainstream polyester fiber manufacturers still adhere to a high price stance and show a strong willingness to maintain prices, all parties have adopted a more cautious wait-and-see attitude in the price game with downstream markets. Based on this, it is expected that the price of polyester filament will fluctuate within a relatively stable range in the future, and the market trend will show a characteristic of oscillating operation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 15th to 19th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 9042 yuan/ton to 9000 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.47% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 18.92%. The domestic BDO market is weak and deadlocked, approaching the settlement cycle, with a mainly cautious and wait-and-see attitude. Follow up on urgent orders downstream of the terminal, the game between supply and demand continues, and the market trading center is deadlocked.

On the supply side and in terms of equipment: The overall increase in market supply is limited, but the supply side support is still acceptable, and the supplier’s intention to maintain prices continues. The supply side of BDO is affected by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: the operating rate has decreased narrowly, and overall supply has remained stable. However, the export of downstream maintenance and supporting calcium carbide has intensified market observation, and calcium carbide enterprises are showing high enthusiasm for raising prices. Raw material methanol: The methanol market is experiencing weak consolidation. As of 3:00 pm on July 19th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2500 yuan/ton. The cost impact of BDO is mixed.

On the demand side, the main downstream PTMEG and GBL/NMP industries have experienced a decline in production, and the utilization rate of other downstream production capacity is average, continuing to follow the pace of rigid demand. The transmission of industrial chain costs is not smooth, with multi-dimensional contract orders trading and light spot negotiations. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, the supply of goods will continue to increase, and the support from the supply side will weaken. However, in the situation where factories are operating at a low profit or loss, the supplier’s intention to maintain prices will continue. The actual demand downstream of the terminal follows lightly, and the transmission of industry chain costs is not smooth, resulting in strong bargaining sentiment when entering the market. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market will mainly operate weakly.