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The price of butyl rubber was weak in May

1、 Price trend

 

Sulfamic acid 

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the butyl rubber market has shown a downward trend since May, with a benchmark price of 17860 yuan/ton in early May. As of May 31st, the benchmark price of butyl rubber was 17600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. A decrease of 1.46%. The price of butyl rubber was lowered in mid May. The cost side has been experiencing a continuous decline in isobutene prices since mid May. The overall trend shows a fluctuating downward trend.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Cost side:

 

Under the long short game, international crude oil fell in May, reaching a low point in nearly three months. The short-term decline in crude oil prices is a squeezing effect of amplified bearish sentiment on both supply and demand sides. However, the future supply and demand fundamentals do not support the maintenance of low oil prices.

 

During the cycle, the crude oil market declined, and the isobutene market showed a synchronous downward trend. In early May, the benchmark price of isobutene was 12225 yuan/ton. As of May 28th, the standard price of isobutene was 12025 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The downstream demand for isobutylene lacks favorable incentives, and retail shipments are average. In the short term, the domestic isobutene market may continue to be weak.

 

Supply and demand side:

 

In April, the import volume of butyl rubber was 18441.999 tons, a decrease of 1613.368 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 8.04%. In April, the export volume of butyl rubber was 7820.57 tons, an increase of 526.429 tons compared to the previous month, a year-on-year increase of 6.73%, and a month on month increase of 18.02%. From January to April 2024, China imported a total of 66757.989 tons of butyl rubber, a year-on-year increase of 39.30%. The overall import volume of butyl rubber has increased compared to the same period last year. In mid May, Shandong Jingbo Zhongju’s 50000 ton/year butyl rubber plant was shut down for maintenance. Although Jingbo Zhongju’s domestic supply of goods was tightened during maintenance, imported goods arrived at the port to replenish inventory. At present, the domestic butyl rubber market is relatively loose.

 

The load rate of the downstream steel tire industry has decreased compared to last month, with the load rate of the entire steel tire industry at around 5.5 floors and the load rate of the semi steel tire industry at around 6.6 floors. Some enterprises in the steel tire industry have stopped for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in demand for raw materials.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

In terms of raw materials, the isobutene market is operating weakly, and the cost support for butyl rubber is weakening; In terms of supply and demand, the order performance of the main downstream steel tire industry enterprises was lower than expected, and downstream bearish performance was obvious. They mostly followed up on demand, and market trading was poor. In the future, the cost of butyl rubber is bearish, and the supply-demand game is deadlocked. It is expected that the butyl rubber market will continue to be weak and consolidate in the later period.

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In May, the hydrochloric acid market first rose and then fell, and the market may be weak afterwards

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

 

sulphamic acid

In May, the domestic hydrochloric acid market first rose and then fell, with uneven market performance. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of hydrochloric acid in the domestic market increased by 5.13% in May. As of the end of the month, the average market price was 102.5 yuan/ton.

 

Upstream support is still present, and downstream demand is average

 

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market performed strongly at the beginning of the month, with manufacturers maintaining a low operating rate and low inventory. The upstream liquid chlorine market has been operating at a high level recently, with expectations of an increase, providing good cost support. After the middle of the month, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have fallen, manufacturers are operating normally, and some enterprises have accumulated inventory, resulting in excessive inventory.

 

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a high level, and cost support is gradually weakening. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market remains weak. In May, it fell by 1.97% and the market price was 1758 yuan/ton. Polyaluminum chloride manufacturers are gradually resuming production, and downstream procurement willingness is average.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

In early June, the market price of hydrochloric acid may not have improved, and some high priced acid companies still have the possibility of making up for the decline. The upstream liquid chlorine market lacks support, and there is still room for further decline in the downstream polyaluminum chloride market. Downstream purchasing willingness is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent weak and volatile hydrochloric acid market is the main trend.

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In May, liquid ammonia first rose and then fell, and later became more rigid

Basic trend

 

Sulfamic acid 

In May, the domestic liquid ammonia market was mainly volatile and rising, breaking out of a trend of first rising and then falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, liquid ammonia recorded a growth rate of 3.91% in May. At the end of the month, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3000-3200 yuan/ton.

 

make a concrete analysis

 

In the first half of the month, liquid ammonia continued its rebound trend at the end of April. In May, prices of manufacturers continued to rise, and the overall operating rate of domestic manufacturers significantly declined, especially with relatively low ammonia emissions in the main production areas in the north. Equipment maintenance is concentrated in Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi and other regions, with a significant decrease in ammonia emissions in the northern main production areas. In addition, there are also device failures and shutdowns in the two lakes area of central China, resulting in a tight market performance for ammonia. The supply has significantly declined during the same period. The ex factory price of liquid ammonia has naturally been repeatedly raised. In the week after the holiday, Shandong manufacturers generally raised prices 2-3 times, with a cumulative increase of 200-300 yuan/ton. The market performance is in short supply.

 

After mid month, the liquid ammonia market experienced a reversal, with a sharp decline in the market. There was a general decline in various markets, with prices in Shandong dropping from 3300 yuan to around 2900 yuan in the latter half of the year. In addition, the Northwest and Inner Mongolia have also experienced declines along with the decline in Shanxi, Shaanxi and other regions. The main reason is the increased supply pressure, with more liquid ammonia being converted in Shandong, Hebei and other regions, resulting in an increase in ammonia volume. In addition, most facilities in central and northwest China have been operating steadily, and increased supply has led to a general accumulation of inventory by manufacturers. Manufacturers generally lower prices to clear inventory and reduce pressure.

 

As the end of the month approached, liquid ammonia rebounded again, mainly due to the low inventory levels of manufacturers and the impact of device failures. The supply in northern main production areas such as Shandong, Hebei, and Shanxi slightly tightened. In addition, some devices are expected to reduce production, and the market atmosphere is performing well, especially with a delay in the downstream agricultural demand peak season and no reduction in procurement, which is related to demand follow-up.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

Analysts from Business Society believe that from the supply side, under the expectation of device maintenance, the tight supply pattern in the northern main production areas may continue for a period of time, and ammonia prices will be supported on the supply side.

 

From the demand side, agricultural demand remains primarily in demand, with demand increments or declines mainly due to a decrease in downstream compound fertilizer production rates and a slowdown in downstream procurement. In addition, the agricultural fertilizer preparation node has not yet arrived, and the next two weeks are in a period of agricultural demand gap, and the centralized procurement period has not yet arrived.

 

Taking all factors into consideration, the price of liquid ammonia will be relatively rigid in the near future, and there is still room for price upward movement in the short term due to reduced supply. However, in the expectation of weak demand in mid to late June, the supply-demand game will intensify, and the ammonia market situation may fluctuate.

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In May, the hexafluoropropylene market experienced a weak downturn

Recently, the market price of hexafluoropropylene has shown a weak downward trend. Downstream demand is cold and procurement is not active, so there is currently no good news. According to the data monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the benchmark price of hexafluoropropylene in Shengyishe was 35650.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.63% compared to the beginning of this month (35875.00 yuan/ton).

 

sulphamic acid

Raw material side: High market prices are under pressure, and production enterprises have thin profits. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyishe is 11620.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the beginning of this month. The operation of hydrofluoric acid plants has not changed much, and some manufacturers of hydrofluoric acid have accumulated inventory. The mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid negotiated in various regions of China is 11200-11700 yuan/ton, and there are still units waiting for market shutdown. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, and the operation of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is about 60%. The overall domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend remained stable in May.

 

The downstream market is relatively quiet, with poor demand, and the focus is on purchasing for essential needs.

 

Business Society’s hexafluoropropylene analyst predicts that due to the recent high cost support of hexafluoropropylene, downstream market demand is poor, and on-demand procurement is affected. It is expected that the hexafluoropropylene market will operate weakly and steadily in the near future. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

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In May, demand was dominant, and the market for ethanolamine remained stable but slightly weak

This month, the domestic market atmosphere for monoethanolamine continued to be light. As of May 30th, the benchmark price of Yishangshe Yiethanolamine was 10440.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.57% compared to the beginning of this month (10500.00 yuan/ton). This month, the primary demand for transactions in the monoethanolamine market has weakened expectations for transactions, with dealers offering more discounts for shipments, and downstream purchasing intentions being lackluster.

 

sulphamic acid

Market analysis:

 

This month, the performance of the monoethanolamine market has been relatively stable, but with a slight off-season atmosphere. After experiencing a period of decline, the price of ethylene oxide in the market gradually stabilized. As the main raw material of monoethanolamine, it provided some support for the cost of monoethanolamine, but the support was still average. Due to the relatively sufficient supply of monoethanolamine in the market, while the demand from downstream users has weakened, the trading atmosphere in the market appears relatively cold.

 

On the one hand, downstream users mostly follow up on demand and are cautious in purchasing monoethanolamine. Market transactions are mainly based on regular orders and lack support from bulk purchases; On the other hand, some production enterprises may have made price adjustments to reduce inventory, further affecting the market price trend.

 

In terms of cost:

 

The domestic market price of ethylene oxide fell in May. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 30th, the average price quoted by domestic ethylene oxide enterprises was 6900.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.43% compared to the price on May 1st (the reference price for ethylene oxide was 7000.00 yuan/ton). The early maintenance equipment has started to resume production, and there has been a slight increase in supply pressure. Coupled with the unsatisfactory transmission of downstream product prices, the price of ethylene oxide has begun to decline. However, the cost support brought by the raw material side remains, and it is expected that there is not much room for price decline in the short term, with short-term fluctuations being mainly weak.

 

The liquid ammonia market fluctuated in May. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 28th, the average quoted price of liquid ammonia enterprises was 3100.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.91% compared to May 1st (reference price of liquid ammonia was 2983.33 yuan/ton), and a decrease of -6.06% compared to May 15th (reference price of liquid ammonia was 3300.00 yuan/ton). The main reason is that the maintenance equipment has resumed work one after another, and the supply side has shown a loose performance. Coupled with the downstream related product urea, which stopped rising this week, some regions have fallen back, and the market has fallen into a stalemate, which has dragged down ammonia prices.

 

On the demand side:

 

As an important organic chemical raw material, monoethanolamine has a wide and diverse range of application scenarios on the demand side. In the chemical industry, monoethanolamine is the main raw material used as a corrosion inhibitor, surfactant, catalyst and crosslinking agent in the polyurethane (coating) industry, fluorescent whitening agent in the textile industry, synthesis of advanced dyes in the dyeing and chemical industry, neutralizing agent in the rubber and ink industries, rust inhibitor, preservative, paint manufacturing and acid gas absorption rust inhibitor, preservative, paint manufacturing and acid gas absorption agent collector. Downstream stocking is mainly based on demand.

 

Overall:

The market for monoethanolamine is showing a stable and weak trend, with downstream user procurement demand mainly maintaining in a rigid range. Holders have a relatively pessimistic attitude, and the focus of market negotiations is clearly biased towards the low price range. Without clear positive factors to support it, the monoethanolamine market is currently struggling to reverse its decline. According to analysts from Business Society, the market for monoethanolamine may continue its weak consolidation trend in the short term.

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The domestic market for phthalic anhydride rose in May

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride increased in May. As of the end of the month, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8187.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.06% compared to the price of 7720 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a year-on-year increase of 2.99%.

 

sulphamic acid

Supply side: The device operates stably and the supply of goods is normal

 

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. In May, the price of industrial naphthalene rose, and the market for naphthalene based phthalic anhydride has risen, which has affected the price of ortho phthalic anhydride.

 

Cost side: Rising prices of ortho benzene, strong cost support

 

In May, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene increased. As of the end of the month, the price of ortho benzene was 8400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.20% from the beginning of the month’s price of 8300 yuan/ton. Due to tight supply of ortho benzene and maintenance of some equipment on site, the price trend of crude oil has risen in the short term, and the price of mixed xylene has risen. The rise of ortho benzene has provided strong cost support for the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of the phthalic anhydride market has risen.

 

On the demand side: The trend of on-demand procurement in the DOP market is increasing

 

In May, the downstream DOP market price trend increased, with a price of 10162.5 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 3.83% compared to the beginning of the month’s price of 9787.5 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises are operating normally, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises are still operating at a loss, and downstream demand is average, The mainstream price of DOP has risen to 10100-10200 yuan/ton, and the downstream DOP price trend has increased, leading to an increase in the purchase of phthalic anhydride and an increase in the domestic phthalic anhydride market price trend.

 

Looking at the future market: In recent times, crude oil prices have fluctuated and risen, while ortho xylene prices have risen. Downstream DOP prices have fluctuated and risen, but the demand for plasticizers has not improved significantly. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and it is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will mainly fluctuate in the later period.

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Insufficient demand leads to a decline in the formic acid market in May

In May, the market price of industrial grade 85% formic acid in China fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 28th, the average price quoted by formic acid companies was 2937.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.65% compared to the price on May 1st (formic acid reference price of 3287.50 yuan/ton).

 

Sulfamic acid 

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that the industrial grade 85% formic acid market experienced an overall decline in May. In the first half of the month, the price of raw material methanol in the market rose and cost support increased, but demand support was weak. Downstream buying was flat, and inquiries and purchases were mainly in demand. Manufacturers accumulated inventory to promote transactions, and the focus of negotiations in the formic acid market declined. In the second half of the month, the raw material methanol market surged and fell, and cost support weakened from strong to weak. The supply side has sufficient supply of goods, but the demand follow-up is limited, resulting in a bearish supply and demand side. Enterprises are actively selling at a profit margin, and the formic acid market has stabilized after a decline.

 

Future Market Forecast:

 

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost face has limited market impact, and downstream users need to follow up on dips. The market atmosphere is average, and it is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may operate steadily, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

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The price of potassium chloride remained stable this week (5.20-24)

1、 Price trend

 

sulphamic acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride remained stable this week (5.20-24), with little price change compared to the previous weekend. As of the end of this week, the price of potassium chloride was quoted at 2516 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

This week, the domestic price of potassium chloride has not changed much, and the market has remained calm, with prices still in the process of consolidation. In terms of imports, the price of 60% potassium chloride is mostly between 2200-2500 yuan/ton. Due to the previous level of arrivals this month, the domestic market has shown a basic balance between supply and demand, and there has been no surplus situation in the market. The price remains rigid and strong. The quotations from major domestic manufacturers for salt lakes have not changed much, with prices reduced by 10 yuan/ton compared to last week, and domestic demand remains relatively sluggish.

 

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, there has been a slight improvement in the downstream potassium fertilizer market, with prices of major products rebounding. The market price of potassium carbonate has slightly declined this week, rising from 7250 yuan/ton last weekend to 7290 yuan/ton this weekend, an increase of 0.55%. The potassium nitrate market continues to rise, with an increase of 2.51%. The price has risen from 4975 yuan/ton last weekend to 5100 yuan/ton this weekend. Overall, the downstream market situation of potassium chloride has slightly improved, and it is expected to have a certain positive effect on upstream potassium chloride in the later stage. However, considering that the prices of potassium chloride production enterprises are currently mostly unchanged, it is also necessary to be cautious about the later market situation.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

According to a potassium chloride data analyst from Business Society, the potassium chloride market was mainly stable in early June. This week, the salt lake quotation slightly decreased, and the domestic market supply and demand were weakly balanced. It is expected that potassium chloride will not have much upward momentum.

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International crude oil prices continue to decline, while the white oil market is weak and falling

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 24th, the average price of white oil in the market was 8466 yuan/ton. On May 17th, the average price of white oil in the market was 8483 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2%.

 

Sulfamic acid 

In terms of cost

 

Crude oil has been falling for four consecutive trading days, WTI crude oil fell to a nearly three-month low. The main reason is that the high interest rate environment in the United States has brought pressure to demand, and in addition, US inventory data is bearish and geopolitical risk premiums are decreasing.

 

In terms of supply and demand

 

On the supply side, the supply from upstream refineries has slightly decreased. Light white oil manufacturers have made price adjustments to individual models this week. On the demand side, the market transaction atmosphere is sluggish, and downstream low-priced rigid demand procurement is the main focus.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is sluggish, and it is expected that the white oil market will undergo weak consolidation and adjustment. Suggest paying attention to the adjustment of upstream oil prices.

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Price increase of polyformaldehyde in Shandong

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has been fluctuating and consolidating recently. At the beginning of this week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4875.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4875.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.51%, a month on month increase of 1.55%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.00%.

 

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is on the rise. On the cost side, the available resources at ports are gradually decreasing, especially due to the tight supply of some high-quality chemical coal. In addition, the market still has expectations for the upcoming peak season, and traders have a strong sentiment of price support. In mid month, most coal mines maintained normal production status, mainly focusing on fulfilling long-term agreements, and the coal supply was relatively stable. With the rise in temperature and the demand for electricity, downstream power plants may gradually replenish their warehouses, providing some support for coal prices. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

 

Recently, the methanol market has been fluctuating at a high level, and cost support is still acceptable. Polyformaldehyde production is normal, and polyformaldehyde analysts at Business Society predict that prices may slightly increase.

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