Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On February 25th, the average market price was 7759.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% from the previous trading day.

Analysis: The price of pure benzene in the domestic market has fallen today. Shandong’s local refining enterprises continue to offer discounts on market prices, while the spot price of pure benzene in East China is consolidating weakly. International crude oil futures closed higher, while the price of pure benzene fell in the foreign market. Today, the styrene futures market weakened. Overall, the buying potential in the pure benzene market is still acceptable at low levels. It is expected that the pure benzene market will consolidate weakly in the short term, and actual transactions are subject to negotiation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 21st, the price of ethyl acetate was 5623.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.30% compared to the price of 5640.00 yuan/ton on February 15th, and a decrease of 0.12% from the beginning of the month. The utilization rate of supply side production capacity has increased, downstream demand performance is insufficient, the market supply is strong and demand is weak, and the ethyl acetate market is consolidating and declining.

This week, the operating rate of domestic ethyl acetate plants has increased, the supply of market goods has increased, the prices of raw materials continue to rise, and cost pressure continues to increase. However, downstream production of ethyl acetate is not high, and demand performance is weak. In order to maintain shipments, enterprises have lowered their prices for ethyl acetate, resulting in poor on-site trading and weak operation of the ethyl acetate market.

In the future, some enterprises plan to increase the load of their ethyl acetate facilities, and the utilization rate of on-site production capacity will continue to increase. The pressure on market supply of goods will increase, and downstream factories will not start operating enough. Market demand is limited, and it is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will continue to be weak in the short term. Specific attention should be paid to changes in supplier facilities and downstream follow-up situations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 14th to 21st, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8371 yuan/ton to 8285 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.02% during the period, a month on month drop of 1.53%, and a year-on-year drop of 12.12%. The domestic BDO market is weak and deadlocked. Approaching the settlement cycle, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with contract orders trading and weak spot negotiations.

On the supply side, BDO’s new production capacity has not yet been put into operation and increased in volume, leading to an improvement in industry capacity utilization and a weakening of supply side support. However, if there are plans for equipment shutdown or maintenance in the later stage, and the industry suffers long-term losses, the supplier’s intention to maintain the price will continue. The supply of BDO is affected by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: Currently, there is an overall abundance of calcium carbide waiting to be unloaded downstream, and downstream procurement prices are stable and wait-and-see. The market is in a stalemate, and the calcium carbide market is stabilizing and consolidating in the short term. Raw material methanol: The growth rate of the domestic methanol market is limited. As of 10:00 am on February 21st, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2598 yuan/ton. The raw material calcium carbide market is consolidating, methanol prices are consolidating, and the impact on BDO costs is mixed.

On the demand side, the overall downstream load of the terminal is still acceptable, but most downstream costs are under pressure, with a focus on following up on raw material contract orders. Some spot purchases are made at low prices, suppressing the trend of raw materials. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, some devices will be shut down for maintenance, and there will be some favorable conditions on the supply side, with a focus on stabilizing the market mentality of the supply side. However, downstream demand follow-up is average, and the transmission of industrial chain costs is not smooth, resulting in strong bargaining sentiment towards raw materials. The short-term market lacks significant support. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market is mainly weak.

1、 Market dynamics

The acrylic acid market remains stable with slight price fluctuations but overall trend remains stable. As of February 17th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7737.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% compared to the beginning of this month (7725.00 yuan/ton). The recent rise in crude oil prices and strong bullish sentiment in the market have provided some support for the price of acrylic acid.

2、 Rising raw material prices

Acrylic is the main raw material for the production of acrylic acid, and its price fluctuations directly affect the production cost of acrylic acid. Recently, the market price of propylene has risen, leading to an increase in the production cost of acrylic acid, which in turn has pushed up the market price of acrylic acid. As of February 17th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6858.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.51% compared to the beginning of this month (6823.25 yuan/ton).

3、 Supply shortage

1. Device maintenance and load reduction: Some acrylic acid production enterprises are undergoing annual maintenance or load reduction production of their devices, resulting in a decrease in the operating level of the acrylic acid industry and a reduction in market supply.

2. Increased concentration of production capacity: In recent years, China’s acrylic acid industry has continuously expanded its production capacity, and some large enterprises have improved their profitability by optimizing their production capacity structure and controlling production volume. This has increased the concentration of the industry and to some extent limited the market supply of acrylic acid.

4、 Downstream demand remains stable

Despite the price increase in the acrylic acid market, downstream demand remained stable overall and there was no large-scale demand explosion. This has led to the acrylic acid market maintaining a strong operation despite tight supply, resulting in sustained price increases.

5、 Market mentality and expectations

With the rise in acrylic acid prices, market sentiment has been boosted. Some downstream users have started to digest contracts, but the sustained high volatility of prices has also prompted some downstream users to enter the market for replenishment. At the same time, market participants hold a certain optimistic expectation for the future market trend, which has also played a driving role in the rise of acrylic acid prices.

Overall, the recent rise in the acrylic acid market is mainly due to the increase in raw material prices and tight supply. It is expected that the overall price of acrylic acid will be relatively strong next week, with a floating range of 50-100 yuan/ton. After the 15th Five Year Plan, enterprises gradually started production, and the demand for acrylic acid was relatively flat, with some support for raw material prices. Therefore, it is expected that the production of acrylic acid will continue to increase next week, and the mainstream price of acrylic acid in East China is expected to remain stable at 7700-8000 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 21800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.11% compared to the same period last year. On February 13th, the Business Society Bromine Index was 76.49, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 68.80% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 29.82% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine is running steadily, and in the Shandong region, the price of bromine is running steadily. The mainstream market price is around 21500-22000 yuan/ton, and bromine manufacturers are gradually resuming production. But downstream demand is weak. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have remained strong, with an average market price of 1661 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1694.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price has increased by 2.01%, which is 71.72% higher than the same period last year. Downstream demand is still acceptable.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain stable in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to rise. Bromine production will continue after the holiday, but downstream demand is still mainly based on on-demand procurement. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the supply and demand are weak, and the price center of polyester filament has remained stable this week. On January 24th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted POY (150D/48F) at 7100-7300 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8300-8500 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7500-7700 yuan/ton.

This week, the trend of crude oil has shown a volatile trend, although there are some upward driving forces, such as the extreme cold weather in Europe and America stimulating fuel demand, and the intensified supply concerns caused by the new round of sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia, showing a volatile characteristic.

Due to the influence of the Spring Festival sentiment, the polyester filament market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the trend appears scattered. Downstream procurement has basically stopped, fabric sales in the weaving market have begun to shut down, and there is a large area of weaving parking.

Overall, it is expected that the polyester filament market may operate with a strong cost logic, with limited fluctuations.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of January 23, the average price quoted by domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4260 yuan/ton. DMF prices have remained stable this week, with little fluctuation compared to the same period last week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, DMF prices have remained stable and are approaching the end of the year. Downstream demand for DMF is not high, and rigid procurement is the main focus. Currently, companies are gradually shutting down production, and market prices remain stable.

In terms of cost: Since December, the spot market price of methanol in Henan has fluctuated, with a price range of 2300-2450 yuan per ton. Currently, the economy of traditional downstream industries is poor, and the market atmosphere in January is bearish. Traders mainly focus on clearing inventory, and their willingness to stockpile is not obvious.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, the DMF market will mainly operate steadily.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market price of isopropanol first fell and then rose in January. On January 1st, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6660 yuan/ton, and on January 22nd, the average price was 6660 yuan/ton, which was the same as the beginning of the month. The lowest price this month is 6580 yuan/ton, and the highest price is yuan/ton.

The market price of isopropanol first fell and then rose in January. In the first half of the month, the market price of raw material acetone was low, and cost support was limited. The isopropanol market is relatively light, with overall purchasing intentions of downstream terminals being average. The sentiment of holders is unstable, with narrow discounts on transactions and a downward focus on trading. In the second half of the month, the price center of acetone market is upward, with strong cost support. In addition, with the approaching Spring Festival and downstream stocking up, isopropanol manufacturers are offering higher prices, and traders have a better mentality, increasing their intention to replenish. In addition, supported by some export orders, the spot market supply is tight, and the trading center is upward. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6500-6600 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu Zhejiang region are around 6750-6850 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the overall price of acetone in the domestic acetone market increased in January. On January 1st, the average price of acetone was 5992.5 yuan/ton, and on January 22nd, the average price was 6097.5 yuan/ton. The price increased by 1.75% during the month. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, most companies have finished stocking up, and market trading follow-up is gradually weakening. The acetone market maintains a weak operation in the short term, with slight adjustments during the pre holiday period.

In terms of propylene, overall in January, the domestic propylene market prices first rose and then fell. At the beginning of January, the market was average at 6835.75 yuan/ton, with an average price of 6808.25 yuan/ton on January 22, a monthly decline of 0.4%. At present, the inventory pressure of propylene enterprises has decreased, and downstream companies are replenishing inventory at low prices, which has driven the overall delivery direction to improve and the shipment situation to improve. It is expected that propylene prices will remain stable with a moderate to strong trend in the short term.

The equipment situation shows that the propylene process unit is operating stably.

3、 Future forecast

An isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyi Society believes that the rise in raw material acetone prices in January provides strong cost support. Approaching the Spring Festival holiday, downstream and traders have basically completed their year-end restocking, and market trading has slowed down. It is expected that the isopropanol market will remain stable and stable in the short term.

Ethylene glycol prices rise in January

The price of ethylene glycol will rise in January 2025. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4735 yuan/ton, an increase of 1% compared to the average price of 4688.33 yuan/ton on January 1st.

As the Spring Festival approaches, spot contract traders have weak trading, and receiving traders are cautious and afraid of high prices. They do not receive many goods, and market trading is average. The basis quotation range for this week’s contract is+21 to+24, the basis quotation range for February is+25 to+28, and the basis quotation range for March is+42 to+45.

On January 20th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4300 to 4360 yuan/ton, including taxes.

In terms of external ethylene glycol, the negotiated price for shipping in February was 547-550 US dollars/ton. On January 15th, the landed price in China was 552 US dollars/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was 553 US dollars/ton.

Recent Overview of Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals

On the domestic supply side, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol remained at around 70%, and Yulin Chemical in Shaanxi stopped production in mid month to replace catalysts, resulting in a slight decline in domestic supply compared to the previous month.

Overseas, a 700000 ton facility in Saudi Arabia has recently shut down and is expected to restart in February;

Domestic installation dynamics: Fude Energy’s 500000 ton production capacity was originally planned to shut down in January, but was postponed to February; Gulei Petrochemical plans to shut down for maintenance for one month starting from February 25th, with a production capacity of 700000 tons; Shanghai Petrochemical’s 2 # 38000 ton production capacity plan will restart in March April, while Zhenhai Refining’s 800000 ton production capacity restart will continue to be postponed; A new 600000 ton synthetic gas plant in Sichuan has started commissioning and operation this week.

On the demand side: The downstream polyester load has slightly fallen from a high level, mainly due to the decrease in terminal weaving operating load. The overall demand side is expected to weaken near the Spring Festival.

In terms of inventory: As of January 20th, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China was 495900 tons, which is 397300 tons higher than the inventory on December 30th, 2024, with a total inventory of 98600 tons.

Reasons for the recent ethylene glycol market trend

Recently, international crude oil prices have strengthened, and cost side support has also increased. However, in January, overseas ethylene glycol was concentrated in ports, which to some extent suppressed the favorable cost side.

Recent ethylene glycol market forecast

Downstream polyester demand is expected to decline quarterly, with a clear weakening trend on the demand side. On the supply side, overseas supply may be affected by equipment maintenance factors, resulting in a decline. Domestic supply elasticity is relatively high. It is expected that there will be weak upward momentum in the short term, with a high probability of sideways fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 13 to January 20, 2025, the toluene market first rose and then fell, with an overall upward trend. On January 13th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6300 yuan/ton, and on January 20th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6820 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.25%. The overall trend of the toluene market this week is upward, and the spot market trading has significantly improved compared to the previous period. This week, the strong performance of crude oil has led to an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market. The overall supply in Shandong region is tight, and the procurement of the oil blending industry is good, which has boosted the mentality of refineries. The factory quotation has been raised multiple times this week. As market purchasing intentions gradually declined, the toluene market experienced a correction over the weekend.

Cost aspect: During this cycle, crude oil prices have risen significantly. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction agreement has been extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries still have compensatory production cuts. The United States has increased sanctions on Russia, and there are strong concerns about supply shortages. The supply side of crude oil is supportive, and crude oil market prices have risen significantly. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, and the arrival of winter cold waves in Europe and America is expected to further boost fuel demand, which is good news for the international oil market. Overall, the rate of change in crude oil during the cycle is continuously expanding in a positive direction. As of January 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $77.39 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $80.79 per barrel.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation first rose and then fell. Currently, the company is operating normally, the production of equipment is stable, and the products are mostly for personal use, with stable production and sales. As of January 20th, East China Company quoted 6700 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6900 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6650-6700 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6900 yuan/ton.

On the demand side, the external market for xylene has slightly rebounded, and demand support is still acceptable

On January 20th, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company was temporarily stable, and the current execution price is 7300 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units is stable, and sales are normal. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of January 17th, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were 873-875 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 898-900 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Market forecast: The recent stable to strong trend of crude oil will provide a certain boost to the toluene market. The demand side has performed relatively well recently, and the Shandong region has performed well recently. However, with the downstream procurement intention coming to an end, there is currently a lack of market buying potential. Recently, the inventory of ports in East China has been relatively high on the supply side, and it is expected that there will be some room for downward adjustment in the toluene market in the short term.