According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated downward from November 1st to 11th, 2024. On November 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 5860 yuan/ton, and on November 11th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% during the cycle. This week, the overall focus of the toluene market is relatively low, with the disproportionation industry being the main industry in Shandong. The purchasing enthusiasm of other industries is not high, and the overall downstream demand is more rigid. Overall, the toluene market has a strong supply-demand game mentality, and the market is mainly characterized by narrow fluctuations.

Cost wise: As of the 8th, international crude oil futures closed down, with the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures at $70.38 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $73.87 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have mainly fluctuated, with little overall change. On the one hand, OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, which is good news for international oil prices. On the other hand, the local economy in Asia has improved, and market panic on demand has eased, boosting the international oil market. However, geopolitical tensions have eased, and this news is bearish for the international oil market. There is a long short game, and overall, crude oil first rose and then fell during the cycle.

Supply side: Sinopec toluene quotation situation: Currently, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of the equipment is stable, the products are mostly self used, and the production and sales are stable. As of November 11th, East China Company quoted 5750 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5950 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5700-5750 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and demand support is weak

On November 11th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price being 7300 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably, with normal sales, and the price is unchanged from November 1st. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of November 8th, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were $809-811/ton FOB Korea and $834-836/ton CFR China.

Market forecast: There will still be supply pressure in the toluene market in the near future, with major refineries accumulating inventory and actively shipping within the week. On the demand side, downstream suppliers will maintain on-demand procurement. Overall, the performance of supply and demand is weak, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate steadily with weak performance.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has risen. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3606.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.30% from the early week price of 3525 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.53%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department needs to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the supply shortage combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of rising prices in the fluorite market this week is strong.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid prices rise, refrigerant market rises

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid has risen this week, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China has recently been negotiated at 11000-11500 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid units are still shut down, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid is around 60%. In November, manufacturers raised their prices, which boosted the trend of fluorite prices.

The downstream refrigerant market is on the rise, and the demand for summer after-sales service is rapidly digesting. The inventory will continue to be depleted throughout the year. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the prices in the foreign trade market are gradually increasing, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The market price of some refrigerant products has risen, which has led to a continuous increase in the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as defense and nuclear industries, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. Recently, the downstream refrigerant product market has risen, and the price of hydrofluoric acid has risen. Overall, the domestic fluorite market still has an upward trend.

This week (10.28-10.31), the domestic price of ethyl acetate continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 31st, the price of ethyl acetate was 5933.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.49% compared to the beginning of the week price of 6023.33 yuan/ton. The main reason for the weak downstream demand, the decline in raw material prices, and the obvious bearish sentiment in the market have led to a weak downward trend in the ethyl acetate market.

The market for ethyl acetate has continued to decline this week. During the week, there was insufficient follow-up on downstream demand, causing manufacturers to block shipments and accumulate inventory. The main factory, ethyl acetate, lowered its quotation, while raw material prices remained weak, resulting in a negative impact on the cost side. This transmitted to the end market and reduced downstream buying, resulting in limited actual transactions on the market and a shift in the focus of ethyl acetate trading.

Looking at the future market, the upstream of ethyl acetate continues to decline, with weak cost support and a wait-and-see attitude in the downstream. They follow up on demand when entering the market, but lack sufficient support for ethyl acetate. Manufacturers’ shipments are not smooth, inventory pressure continues to increase, and there is a lack of favorable market conditions. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will remain weak in the short term, and we will pay specific attention to changes in the upstream market and downstream follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid continued to decline in October, with a price of 2900 yuan/ton as of October 30th. Compared with the acetic acid price of 3250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, the price has decreased by 350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.77% during the month.

As of the end of the month, the market price details of acetic acid in various regions of China in October are as follows:

Region/ On October 8th/ On October 18th/ October 30th

South China region/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 2825 yuan/ton

North China region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 2825 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 2950 yuan/ton/ 2800 yuan/ton

Jiangsu region/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 2750 yuan/ton/ 2700 yuan/ton

Zhejiang region/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 2850 yuan/ton/ 2800 yuan/ton

The acetic acid market experienced a weak decline in October. In terms of supply, the acetic acid plant on site is operating normally, and the market supply is stable. However, downstream buyers are generally enthusiastic about entering the market, and the inquiry atmosphere is sluggish during the month. Market transactions are limited, and manufacturers’ shipments are hindered, leading to increased inventory pressure. In order to promote transactions, the focus of acetic acid trading has shifted downwards. However, downstream demand is weak, and there is a lack of favorable supply side factors, resulting in a continuous decline in the acetic acid market.

The methanol market on the raw material side is weak and volatile. As of October 30th, the average price in the domestic market was 2440.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.33% compared to the beginning of the month price of 2577.50 yuan/ton. Returning from vacation, some downstream restocking has led to an increase in methanol prices; From the 9th to the middle of the month, fundamentals weakened, on-site supply increased, downstream demand did not follow smoothly, and methanol prices continued to fall; After the price fell to a low level, downstream gas buying improved, and then methanol prices rebounded accordingly; By the end of the month, due to the continuous increase in market supply and the availability of warehouses at ports, as well as the decline in futures prices, the methanol spot market had weakened and declined.

Market forecast: Business analysts believe that the current bearish atmosphere in the acetic acid market is evident, downstream demand is insufficient, market trading atmosphere is light, supply side acetic acid inventory is sufficient, shipments are poor, downstream mentality on the demand side is sluggish, on-site supply is strong and demand is weak. It is expected that acetic acid prices will continue to be weak in the future, and specific attention will be paid to downstream replenishment situation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on October 28th was 873 yuan/ton, which is 1.13% lower than the average price of 883 yuan/ton on October 21st.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price first rose and then fell. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, with a slight increase in the operating rate at the domestic level. Downstream demand has weakened, but market inquiries have decreased, resulting in more low-priced purchases. The export performance is poor, and there is currently no positive news in the short term. As of October 28th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 820 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 830-900 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has been running steadily in recent days, with a weak overall trend. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement is not high, and they tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices will continue to be weakly adjusted and operated.

At present, asphalt is in the peak season of consumption, and the demand for spot goods is released in the last wave. While refineries in the main production areas maintain low operating levels, the society is smoothly destocking. A few factories have also experienced temporary shortages. Overall, the inventory status of various factories is lower than the same period last year, and the asphalt market is steadily rising during the week. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the price in Shandong region was 3501 yuan/ton on October 18th, and rose to 3533 yuan/ton on October 25th, an increase of 0.9%.

The cost side support is still acceptable, but the geopolitical issues in the Middle East remain unresolved. There are still significant risks in the oil market, and coupled with the current low supply pressure, there is still support for the closure of spot demand. Asphalt is steadily rising.

In terms of supply, the average operating rate of asphalt in mid October was around 40%, and overall it is still at a relatively low level within the past five years. The pressure on the supply side is not significant.

From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the supply side is still at a low level, and factories are in a low inventory state, which provides some support for asphalt prices. It is expected that in the long run, attention will be paid to the demand for asphalt next year and the fluctuation of oil prices.

Last week (October 14-20), the shipment of adhesive short fibers was stable, market prices were stable, and factories were mainly responsible for stable delivery and order execution. The price of dissolved slurry remains stable at a high level, and the auxiliary material market is relatively strong. At present, the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber device remains high with little change, and the supply is still acceptable. However, the inventory is low and there is no sales pressure at the moment. Downstream cotton yarn procurement is still mainly based on demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 20th, the domestic factory price of 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13820 yuan/ton, and the price remains stable.

Raw materials remain stable

Last week (October 14-20), the market for the main raw material of viscose staple fiber, dissolution slurry, was consolidating at a high level, with average cost support. Currently, the domestic price for dissolution slurry is around 7800 yuan/ton. The price quotation for imported broad-leaved soluble pulp is around 960 US dollars per ton, while the price for coniferous soluble pulp remains around 1040 US dollars per ton.

Low inventory level

Most of the adhesive short fiber market devices are operating stably, with high market supply and a daily operating rate of around 85.8% in the industry. Due to the increase in downstream demand, the overall inventory level of the adhesive short fiber market continues to decline and is at a low level. Some models in the market are experiencing tight shipments, and there is still positive support from the supply side.

Demand side support is still limited

The downstream cotton yarn market has a flat trading atmosphere and stable prices. As of October 20th, the average factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) is 17700 yuan/ton. Although the demand in the terminal market is still weak, the downstream vortex spinning market equipment continues to increase, and yarn mills are holding onto the demand for essential orders, resulting in an increase in demand for adhesive short fibers. However, the new round of orders in the market is still expected to last for about a month, with limited support from the demand side.

Future forecast

The upstream raw material market prices are expected to remain firm and stable, while the on-site supply is tight. Downstream yarn factories are following up as needed, and the market has entered a new round of order delivery period. Many adhesive short fiber manufacturers are queuing up to ship, and coupled with the lack of significant improvement in the end market, it may be difficult for the demand side to improve. Therefore, it is expected that the demand side of adhesive short fiber will perform averagely in the later stage. Business analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will maintain stable prices in the short term, with limited price fluctuations, and prices are expected to be between 13700-13900 yuan/ton.

The domestic fluorite prices have remained stable this week, with an average price of 3462.5 yuan/ton as of the weekend, unchanged from the early week price of 3642.25 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 8.43%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the supply shortage combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of rising prices in the beneficiation plant is strong. This week, the fluorite market.

Demand side: Stable price of hydrofluoric acid, rising refrigerant market

This week, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable. Recently, the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China has been negotiated at 10500-11000 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and more than 50% of the hydrofluoric acid is in operation. The stocking sentiment is average, and the price trend of fluorite is temporarily stable this week.

The downstream refrigerant market is on the rise, and the demand for summer after-sales service is rapidly digesting. The inventory will continue to be depleted throughout the year. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the prices in the foreign trade market are gradually increasing, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The market price of some refrigerant products has risen, which still supports the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as defense and nuclear industries, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. Recently, some downstream refrigerant products have risen, but the operating situation of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is average. Overall, the domestic fluorite market is prone to rise but difficult to fall.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has risen. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3462.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.40% from the beginning of the week price of 3381.25 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.13%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the supply shortage combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of rising prices in the fluorite market is strong.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid price increase helps refrigerant market rise

Domestic major manufacturers have raised the pricing of 10% hydrofluoric acid. Recently, the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China has increased to 10500-11000 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid units are still shut down, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and more than 50% of hydrofluoric acid production has started. The pricing of hydrofluoric acid major factories has increased, which is a positive support for the domestic fluorite market. This week, fluorite prices have risen.

The downstream refrigerant market is on the rise, and the demand for summer after-sales service is rapidly digesting. The inventory will continue to be depleted throughout the year. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the prices in the foreign trade market are gradually increasing, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The market for some refrigerant products has risen, which has led to a rebound in the domestic fluorite market.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as defense and nuclear industries, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market still has support.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. Recently, the downstream refrigerant product market has risen, and the downstream hydrofluoric acid market has risen, which supports the price increase of the domestic fluorite market.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 2157 yuan/ton, which is 0.74% lower than the reference average price of 2172 yuan/ton on September 1st.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

In September, the domestic urea market prices fluctuated and fluctuated. As of September 30th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1810-1840 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1860-1880 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1830-1860 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1900 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from July 1, 2024 to September 23, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. There was a significant increase in September, with the largest increase being 1.12% in the week of September 9th.

Supply and demand situation

In terms of supply, the urea market has ample supply this month. In terms of demand, agricultural demand maintains rigid procurement, and downstream purchases of urea are more cautious, with many low-priced transactions. At present, the market supply and demand are relatively balanced, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market has seen a slight increase in recent days. The demand for pre holiday stocking has increased, resulting in slight fluctuations in urea prices. It is expected that the domestic urea market will experience a narrow range of price consolidation and operation in the short term.