According to data monitored by Business Society, as of September 20th, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 7033.33 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the same period last week. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and shipments are currently slow.

This week, the market price of cyclohexane has been operating in a narrow range, with the mainstream price around 7033.33 yuan/ton. Compared to the same period last week, the price has remained stable, with mainstream manufacturers maintaining a quotation range of around 7000 yuan/ton and a stable operating rate. Downstream demand procurement is the main focus, and the negotiation atmosphere is flat.

Chemical Index: On September 18th, the chemical index stood at 969 points, an increase of 2 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 30.79% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 62.04% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Cyclohexane analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the stable operation of the cyclohexane market is the main trend, with a narrow range leaning towards strength.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of cryolite in Henan have been running smoothly recently. On September 18th, the average market price in Henan was 7850 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price of 7850 yuan/ton on September 11th, with a year-on-year increase of 2.28%.

quotations analysis

The price trend of cryolite remains stable, and the manufacturer’s quotation is firm. The upstream price of cryolite has increased, the production cost of cryolite has increased, and the market mentality is bullish. However, the downstream is relatively resistant to high priced cryolite, and demand is sluggish. The market trading atmosphere is average, and the market is sluggish. cryolite manufacturers maintain rational inventory, actively ship, and the market mentality is wait-and-see operation. As of September 18th, the factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8900 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market has significantly increased, with an average market price of 3350.00 yuan/ton on September 18, an increase of 4.89% compared to the price of 3193.75 yuan/ton on September 11. Upstream mining is tight, and companies are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements. It is difficult for fluorite flotation companies to start operations, and fluorite spot prices are very tight. As a result, fluorite market prices continue to rise.

The downstream aluminum market fluctuated in a narrow range, with aluminum prices around 19560.00 yuan/ton on September 18, an increase of 0.51% compared to the price of 19460.00 yuan/ton on September 11. At present, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is operating at a high level, with good macro benefits and strong supply and demand, resulting in high aluminum ingot prices. However, recently, aluminum ingots have started to accumulate inventory, with aluminum prices mainly fluctuating.

Future Market Forecast

Cryolite enterprises have no inventory pressure, manufacturers are actively shipping, downstream demand is weak, and market follow-up is insufficient. Although raw material prices have increased, the support for cryolite is not as strong as downstream resistance to high priced cryolite. Manufacturers are cautious, and cryolite operates smoothly. Considering the cost impact, it is expected that the cryolite market will slightly increase in the future. Specific attention will be paid to changes in manufacturers’ inventory and downstream acceptance.

Zinc prices fluctuate and rise this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 18th, the zinc price was 22062 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.88% compared to the fluctuating zinc price of 21654 yuan/ton on September 11th. The economic data in August saw marginal improvement, macroeconomic recovery, market confidence improvement and recovery, and the zinc market was positive. This week, zinc prices fluctuated and rose.

Marginal improvement in economic data for August

Under the stimulus of a package of stable growth policies, the economic data in August saw a marginal improvement. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year, an increase of 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the market expected 3.5%; The added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the market expects it to be 4.2%. The growth rate of retail sales of goods has significantly increased, and residents’ consumer confidence has increased. The retail sales of goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year in August, an increase of 2.7 percentage points compared to the previous month. Promotional policies and events such as car shows have boosted demand for cars, with retail sales increasing by 1.1% year-on-year (-1.5%). The acceleration of housing completion has led to an improvement in post real estate cycle consumption, with furniture increasing by 4.8% year-on-year (previous value of 0.1%) and household appliances and audio equipment decreasing by 2.9% year-on-year (previous value of -5.5%). Under policy stimulus, macroeconomic growth and expected rebound in demand for zinc are favorable for the zinc market.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the implementation of policies has led to a comprehensive recovery in domestic macroeconomic data, with a growth rate exceeding expectations, and an expected rebound in demand in the zinc market. Overall, macroeconomic benefits have stimulated both supply and demand in the zinc market, and it is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of yellow phosphorus in Yungui decreased this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the week was 26400 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 25933.33 yuan/ton. The price decreased during the week by 1.54%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of Yungui yellow phosphorus was lowered. The overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus is average, and downstream purchases are priced at a low price, which is relatively resistant to high-end prices. The focus of market transactions has shifted downwards. Upstream phosphate rock prices have risen, putting pressure on costs, and there is little likelihood that manufacturers will continue to offer profits. At present, in the upstream and downstream markets, many manufacturers are selling at high prices and not buying at low prices. There are many downstream inquiries, and the actual order is cautious and hesitant, mainly on demand. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 26000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is subject to negotiation.

In terms of phosphate ore, the domestic phosphate ore market has been on the rise this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of phosphate rock was 938 yuan/ton, while at the weekend, the average price was 962 yuan/ton. During the week, the price increased by 2.56%. At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the phosphorus ore market is mild, and the rebound in downstream demand has boosted market confidence. The phosphorus ore data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mostly operate stronger, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

In terms of coke, the market price of coke in Shandong Port is temporarily stable, with a quasi first level outbound price of around 2150-2200 yuan/ton and a first level outbound price of 2250-2300 yuan/ton. The port market is currently operating steadily, with a slight increase in inventory between the two ports and a slight improvement in trading atmosphere. In terms of shipping cost, it will be 190 yuan/ton from Xiaoyi to Rizhao Port on the 11th, and 180 yuan/ton from Jiexiu to Rizhao Port.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid has increased this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of phosphoric acid was 7060 yuan/ton, while at the weekend, the average price was 7120 yuan/ton. During the week, the price increased by 0.85%. It is expected that in the near future, the price of phosphoric acid will remain stable and wait-and-see oriented.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the current increase in upstream phosphate rock prices and the stabilization of coke prices are putting pressure on costs. Downstream enterprises are more wait-and-see and cautious in actual orders. The upstream and downstream games have resulted in a relatively stagnant market. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will temporarily stabilize its consolidation and operation in the short term, and we will pay attention to changes in the news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently declined. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1216.67 yuan/ton, while at the end of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1203.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.10%. The current price has decreased by 7.44% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has fluctuated and fallen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has been mainly rising in the past two months, and this week’s market has declined. As of September 14th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1150-1260 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol showed a downward trend, with poor cost support. The formaldehyde market had light trading volume and the market continued to decline.

Upstream methanol situation: Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market continues to decline, with maintenance of two units in Chifeng Boyuan, Yulin Kaiyue, and Shandong in Inner Mongolia; Anhui Carbon Xin, Hebei Jinshi, Shaanxi Black Cat, Wangcang Hezhong, and a set of devices in Inner Mongolia have been restored. The overall recovery is greater than the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is negatively affected. The cost is relatively weak, and netizens have broken through in pre holiday stocking in terms of supply and demand. Methanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic methanol market is mainly characterized by high volatility.

Recently, the methanol market has been weak and declining, with poor cost support. Downstream panel factories have had poor demand due to the impact of rainy weather. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline in the near future.

Summary of Ethylene Oxide Prices in September

In September, the price of ethylene oxide increased. According to data from Business News Agency, as of September 11th, the average market price of ethylene oxide in China was 6600 yuan/ton; From a regional perspective, the average market price in North China is 6500 yuan/ton, East China is 6600 yuan/ton, Central China is 6600 yuan/ton, and South China is 6600 yuan/ton.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

From August to September, the prices of the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomers remained relatively stable, while the recent price increase of ethylene oxide was mainly driven by cost factors.

 
Supply side

Previously, the price of ethylene oxide was relatively low, and some manufacturers hit the cost line, facing increasing pressure to lose money. The operating rate of manufacturers was relatively low, and some enterprises underwent equipment maintenance. In addition, some production factories may switch to producing ethylene glycol or adjust their own usage ratio to alleviate production and sales pressure. Overall, there are frequent malfunctions in the ethylene oxide plant, leading to a tightening of market supply. Since July, the cost side benefits brought by the raw material side and the macro benefits driven by the upward trend of crude oil prices in the energy and chemical sector have supported the price of ethylene oxide.

The price of ethylene oxide may continue to fluctuate strongly in September

In the short term, the cost support for ethylene oxide has strengthened, and with the transmission effect of upstream and downstream product prices, the price of ethylene oxide has improved. On the supply and demand side, under the increasing losses of ethylene oxide enterprises on the supply side, production enthusiasm is not high, external sales of enterprises are decreasing, and domestic supply is showing a tense situation. There is still room for the price of ethylene oxide to rise in the short term.

On September 12th, domestic liquid ammonia reversed last week’s upward trend and turned into a decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the main production area in Shandong fell by 1.70% daily, with a trading center in the range of 150 to 200 yuan/ton compared to Friday. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3600-3800 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the supply in the main production areas has increased, and some faulty enterprises have resumed operation, resulting in increased supply pressure. Since September, the import supply has only increased without decreasing, which has had an impact on the liquid ammonia market in the region. Large factories in Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Shanxi and other regions have all lowered their prices, with most of the price reductions today being at 100 yuan/ton.

On the demand side, downstream demand is relatively stable. However, due to the impact of urea testing, export pressure has increased, and market sentiment has slightly fluctuated. The current industrial demand remains strong.

Prediction: Liquid ammonia analysts from Business Society believe that the supply and demand pattern of the ammonia market will continue to shift from tightening to easing in the short term, and prices will continue to be weak in the near future.

1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 11th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8126.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.06% compared to September 1st at 8131.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha was around 8100 yuan/ton.

As of September 11th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined straight-run naphtha was 8019.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.75% compared to September 1st at 7959.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 8000 yuan/ton.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Recently, the market for local refined naphtha has been volatile, with the rise of international crude oil driving the domestic naphtha market. Refineries are actively shipping, but there is a lack of obvious positive news at the end. Refineries have limited upward momentum, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The local refined naphtha market is mixed.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has recently risen. OPEC+, an oil producing country, is rumored to have extended production cuts. The market expects an additional 1 million barrels of production reduction from Saudi Arabia to continue until December, while Russia’s crude oil production reduction will continue until December. Supply tightening is expected to continue to ferment and boost the oil market; In addition, the weakening of the US dollar has led to a rebound in oil market valuations and the potential impact of storms in the US Gulf on energy supply, which is a positive factor supporting international oil prices.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of Business Society, the international crude oil price has been operating at a high level recently, with the cost of toluene rising and the factory price of enterprises rising. The external price of mixed xylene has slightly increased, and domestic enterprises have a tight supply. In addition, downstream demand support has led to a strong performance in the xylene market. In terms of PX, the domestic supply of xylene is normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%, and spot supply is relatively normal.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the recent rise in international crude oil has boosted the domestic naphtha market, but the domestic naphtha market lacks significant substantial benefits at the end, leading to weak market guidance and strong market wait-and-see sentiment. Refineries are actively shipping, and it is expected that the local refining naphtha market will be mainly volatile and organized in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the industrial grade first class potassium nitrate in Shanxi was reported at 5450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 5525 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.38% and 2.31% month on month. The current price has dropped by 18.75% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

The domestic potassium nitrate market has risen this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that after a month of continuous increase in the potassium nitrate market, the market continues to rise this week. The market price of potassium chloride on the cost side has increased, with good cost support. Potassium nitrate inventory has decreased rapidly compared to the previous period, and the source of goods is mostly in the hands of traders. They are reluctant to sell, and there are fewer available sources of goods in the market, resulting in an increase in the market. According to statistics from Business Society, mainstream domestic manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 5300-5500 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), and the prices vary depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated and increased. Analysts from the Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term.

Recently, the market price of domestic 60% crystal is mostly between 2700-2750 yuan/ton, and new sources of border trade are gradually opening up. Downstream procurement remains in demand, and it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

On August 30th, the crude benzene commodity index was 108.82, a decrease of 0.82 points from yesterday, a decrease of 17.46% from the cycle’s highest point of 131.84 points (2013-01-28), and an increase of 256.32% from the lowest point of 30.54 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in August 2023, the crude benzene market first rose and then fell. The domestic factory price of crude benzene was 6593.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 6893.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 4.55%.

In August, crude oil emerged from a trend of rising and falling, and in the first half of the year, the market continued to rise amidst supply concerns and the positive trend of the peak oil consumption season. Brent crude oil topped $87 per barrel, while WTI crude oil approached $83, reaching a nearly 9-month high. Afterwards, with the deterioration of macro data, the market turned sharply downwards, and near the end of the month, the WTI fell below $80. Under the combined effect of OPEC+production control and weak economic data in oil producing countries, the supply-demand game intensifies, and the market shifts into a narrow range of fluctuations. Overall, in the future, there is a general consensus in the basic market that both supply and demand in the energy sector will weaken simultaneously, leading to an intensification of the supply-demand game in the oil market and a rebalancing of supply and demand. This will continue to put pressure on oil prices. In the short term, the driving force for the oil market to continue to rise is limited. Under the hedging of weak demand expectations and tight supply, the high probability range is mainly characterized by narrow fluctuations.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has shown a positive trend in recent times. After entering July, the pure benzene market has been on the rise for 6 consecutive weeks, and in late August, it has been on a narrow decline for 2 consecutive weeks.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has been raised three times and lowered once in this cycle, with a cumulative increase of 350 yuan/ton within the month. Currently, it is priced at 7750 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7730 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7743 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7730 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton.

In terms of industrial chain: In the first half of the month, the pure benzene market continued to rise, boosted by the rise of crude oil and pure benzene in the external market. The pure benzene market in East China continued to rise, and the market supply was tight. In the first half of the month, the factory price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 400 yuan/ton twice, supported by multiple positive factors, and the price of pure benzene continued to rise. In the first half of the month, the price of hydrogenated benzene market continued to rise, with a cumulative increase of 350 to 400 yuan/ton. In the second half of August, the crude oil market was volatile, and the external market of pure benzene fell, dragging down the mentality of the pure benzene market. The market trend was somewhat volatile. On August 31, the bidding price of Sinopec pure benzene was lowered by 100 yuan/ton to 7750 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After entering 23 years, the hydrogenation benzene market has seen both positive and negative trends. In May, the market has been declining for two consecutive months, while in July and August, it has been rising for two consecutive months. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the hydrogenation benzene market has been rising for 7 consecutive weeks since entering July.

Although crude benzene belongs to coal chemical commodities, the downstream commodity of crude benzene, hydrogenated benzene, as a substitute for pure benzene, has a price trend that closely follows the fluctuations in the pure benzene market. Therefore, the crude benzene market is mainly affected by the pure benzene industry chain. In August, the pure benzene market experienced a high and fluctuating trend in the first half of the month, while crude benzene experienced an upward trend in the first half of the month due to the impact of the industrial chain, and a fluctuating downward trend in the second half. In terms of supply, in August, coking enterprises saw a steady increase in operating rates due to the continuous decline in raw material coking coal prices, and crude benzene supply was relatively loose. In terms of demand, the operating rate of hydrogenation benzene enterprises has slightly declined this month, but there is still a strong demand for support for crude benzene. However, due to the impact of corporate profits, the pressure on prices is strong, and market expectations are weak. In the future, the current trend of crude oil is fluctuating, with insufficient guidance for the market. The supply and demand side of crude benzene is showing bearish factors. In the future, we expect the crude benzene market to operate weakly, with some room for decline. But stocking up before the end of September has boosted prices, and there is room for improvement.