According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of August 4, the average price quoted by Epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8125.00 yuan/ton, up 1.88% from Monday.

The market of Epichlorohydrin rose mainly this week. In the near future, the price of raw propylene is weak, the price of raw glycerin is mainly stable, and the cost side has little impact. The capacity utilization rate of Epichlorohydrin and the main downstream epoxy resin industry has increased slightly. Enterprises mainly deliver more contracts and early orders, and the market spot supply is tight, which supports the price of Epichlorohydrin to rise. With the price increase and the impact of the expected news of supply increment, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiries has decreased, Focus on following up on just the right amount.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for propylene on August 3 was 6638.25, a decrease of 1.12% compared to August 1 (6713.25).

Downstream epoxy resin, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on August 3rd, the reference price of epoxy resin was 14200.00, which is the same as August 1st.

According to the Epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, the manufacturers are currently under no pressure to ship, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is moderate. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be deadlocked in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the supply side changes.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic NMP market was reorganized and operated in July, with a downward shift in focus. At the beginning of July, the average price of electronic grade NMP was 17333 yuan/ton. As of July 31st, the average price was 17000 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 1.92%.

2、 Analysis and Review

As of July 31st, the mainstream prices of NMP bulk water in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ July 31st

East China/ 15500-16000 yuan/ton

Central China/ 15000-16000 yuan/ton

Southwest region/ 15000-16000 yuan/ton

In July, the domestic NMP market showed significant stability and slight fluctuations, lacking substantial positive factors to support the market. Enterprise quotations were on the market, with downstream demand being the main force. The increase in construction work did not change much, resulting in limited demand growth and limited support for NMP. The NMP of raw materials fluctuated downward, and cost support further weakened.

In July, the domestic BDO market saw a unilateral decline, with a slight rebound at the end of the month. From July 1st to 27th, the average price of domestic BDO decreased from 11421 yuan/ton to 10942 yuan/ton, with a 4.19% decrease in price during the cycle.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society NMP analysts believe that the current downstream construction of NMP remains low, and under demand constraints, it is expected that in the short term, NMP prices will be adjusted and operated at a low level in the future.

The market of Polybutadiene rose slightly this week (7.24-7.31). According to the commodity market analysis system of the business agency, as of July 31, the price of Polybutadiene in East China was 10940 yuan/ton, up 1.58% from 10770 yuan/ton last Monday. The price of raw butadiene continues to rise, and the cost of Polybutadiene is supported; Recently, the supply price of Polybutadiene has been raised by 200 yuan/ton, and the offer of merchants has risen slightly.

This week (7.24-7.31), the Polybutadiene plant basically operated normally, and Polybutadiene supply was loose as a whole.

The price of raw butadiene continued to rebound this week (7.24-7.31), and the cost focus of Polybutadiene rebounded. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 31st, the price of butadiene was 7201 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.34% from last Monday’s 6968 yuan/ton.

The natural rubber market slightly increased this week (7.24-7.31). According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 31st, the price of natural rubber was 12080 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.94% from last Monday’s 11850 yuan/ton.

Recently, the tire operating rate has fluctuated slightly, with a slight increase in half steel tire operating compared to the previous period, and a slight decrease in all steel tire operating compared to the previous period. The demand for rubber rigid support is stable. It is understood that as of late July 2023, the operating load of rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province for all steel tires is 6.3%, and for half steel tires, it is around 7.2%.

Future market forecast: analysts from the business community believe that the high raw material price of Polybutadiene is supported by its cost. In the second half of the month, many devices were restarted, and the pressure on the supply side of Polybutadiene increased slightly; The downstream commencement fluctuates slightly, which is stable for Polybutadiene support; To sum up, it is expected that Polybutadiene will consolidate after rising in the short term. In the medium and long term, if the cost and demand continue to support, Polybutadiene may have the opportunity to continue to rise.

Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of sulfur in East China continued to decline this week. On July 28, the price of sulfur was 846.67 yuan/ton, and on July 22, the price of sulfur was 876.67 yuan/ton, down 3.42%, up 18.69% from the beginning of the month.

The sulfur market in East China is weak, mainly due to the poor shipment of some refineries and the continuous reduction of sulfur prices. But overall, the sulfur market is strong. Although the on-site units operate normally, the supply of goods is stable, the downstream market has slightly improved, the terminal industry has started to increase, and the market orders have increased. The industry is optimistic about the future market. In addition to East China, there are also some sulfur manufacturers in some regions whose quotations have increased. At present, the market is cautious, The manufacturer adjusts the quotation based on their own shipment situation. As of the 28th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong region is around 810-930 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 800-880 yuan/ton.

Downstream market of the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid price has slightly increased. On July 28th, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 160.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.26% compared to the price of 152.00 yuan/ton on July 22nd. The on-site sulfuric acid plant is operating normally, the supply of goods is stable, downstream demand has improved, enterprise shipments have increased, and the operator’s attitude is wait-and-see, resulting in a slight increase in sulfuric acid prices.

The market for monoammonium phosphate is relatively strong. On July 28th, the average market price for 55% powdered monoammonium was 2616.67 yuan/ton. On July 22nd, the average market price for 55% powdered monoammonium was 2566.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.95%. Downstream inquiries have increased, and some manufacturers have smooth shipments with strong bullish intentions. The quotation of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has been raised, and the market may continue to rise in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society sulfur analysts believe that the sulfur enterprise’s equipment is operating normally, the manufacturer’s inventory is maintaining rationality, the end industry has good trading, the purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and the market inquiry atmosphere has increased. In the future, fertilizer will be used in the autumn, and the demand side is bullish. The operator’s mentality is positive, and it is expected that the sulfur market may be slightly stronger. In the future, specific attention will be paid to the downstream follow-up situation.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of July 27th, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 600 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the same period last week. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and shipments are currently slow.

This week, the market price of cyclohexane has been operating in a narrow range, with the mainstream price around 6600 yuan/ton. Compared to the same period last week, the price has remained stable, with mainstream manufacturers maintaining a quotation range of around 6400 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and downstream demand procurement is the main focus. The negotiation atmosphere is flat.

Chemical Index: On July 26th, the chemical index stood at 834 points, an increase of 4 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 40.43% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 39.46% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Cyclohexane analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the stable operation of the cyclohexane market is the main trend, with a narrow range being weak.

In July, the domestic bisphenol A market showed a trend of first rising and then declining. On July 1st, the mainstream price in East China was discussed at 9212 yuan/ton, and as of the 25th, the market was quoted at 9670 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.97%. Among them, on the 13th, the market rose to 10000 yuan/ton, maintaining the trend for nearly a week, with an amplitude of 8.55% in July.

In early July, the upward trend continued in mid to late June, with prices rising from 8700 yuan/ton in the early stage to 10000 yuan. This was mainly affected by supply side tensions. However, after maintaining a high price in mid July, due to severe demand shortage, the bisphenol A market turned downward, and the operating rate increased in late June. The severe supply side tension was alleviated, and as of July 25th, the market negotiations reached around 9700 yuan/ton.

The supply side eased in late July. Guangxi Huayi Bisphenol A Plant has restarted, and the operating rate has further increased. It is expected that the operating rate will increase to around 80% in August, indicating an improvement in market supply.

The two downstream markets further differentiate, resulting in sluggish demand for epoxy resin terminals, few new orders, and a weak market focus. The overall operating rate of the PC end has improved, with an increase in bisphenol A, but many devices are equipped with bisphenol A or have contracts, which has little impact on the market.

Cost side benefits support. Under the tight supply of dual raw materials phenol and acetone, prices continue to rise. On the other hand, due to the strong crude oil, the cost side is supported. The impact of factory inflation, limited import sources, and strong crude oil has a high probability of phenol and acetone firming up in the short term

The business society believes that the raw materials are strong and the upward cost support is strong, but the demand follow-up is slow, and it is difficult to make significant improvements in the short term. The supply side has improved, but the supply source is relatively concentrated, and the holders are clearly not willing to offer profits for shipment. Under the influence of multiple factors mentioned above, the rise and fall trend of bisphenol A depends on the changes in the influencing factors. On the 25th, there was a correction in the closing price, which does not exclude the possibility of a slight increase in the short term. However, the long-term sustained upward trend depends on the improvement of downstream demand.

According to data monitored by the Business Society, as of July 25th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4725 yuan/ton. This week, the DMF price rose narrowly, dropping 4.42% in the week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4700 yuan/ton.

This week, the overall DMF market saw a narrow upward trend, with prices increasing by 4.42% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4700.00 yuan/ton, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is average. The upstream cost support is insufficient, and shipments are slow. Manufacturers are giving up profits and taking orders, resulting in high inventory levels.

Chemical Index: On July 24th, the chemical index stood at 828 points, an increase of 2 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 40.86% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 38.46% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, the DMF market will operate steadily with a stronger trend.

According to the price monitoring data of Business Society, as of July 24, 2023, the reference price of domestic n-propanol was 7566 yuan/ton. Compared with July 17, 2023 (reference price of n-propanol was 7766 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.85%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that in the recent period (7.17-7.24), the overall market situation of n-propanol in China has shown a downward trend. Last week (7.17-7.23), the domestic n-propanol market remained stable and consolidated overall, with little market fluctuation and relatively calm news. At the beginning of this week (July 24th), the center of gravity of the n-propanol market was moving downwards. Some large n-propanol factories and suppliers in Shandong lowered the prices of n-propanol by around 200 to 400 yuan/ton, driving the overall market downward and widening the price difference between high and low prices on the market. As of July 24th, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 6700-7600 yuan/ton. The market for n-propanol in Nanjing is relatively stable. Distributors in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of the Future Market Trend of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-propanol market is relatively light, with downstream markets mainly focusing on procurement and cautious stocking. According to the n-propanol data analyst of the Business Society, in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market is mainly adjusted and operated in multiple intervals, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Price trend

The recent trend of the domestic PA66 market has remained negative. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, the benchmark price of domestic PA66 was 18833.33 yuan/ton on July 21, a decrease of -4.24% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

This week, the PA66 market continued its previous weak trend, and overall, spot prices of various brands continued to decline. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry is currently maintained at around 65%, a narrow increase compared to the previous period. Some production lines of enterprises are only resuming work, and the on-site supply of goods is still relatively sufficient, so the supply side’s support for spot goods is average. Poor digestion in terms of inventory, negative corporate confidence, and cautious pricing operations. Upstream, the domestic market of Hexamethylenediamine is weak. Adipic acid market rose, with both pure benzene and Cyclohexanone as raw materials during the week, and Adipic acid kept up. However, due to the price fluctuation in the early stage, the current Adipic acid has no obvious profit on the spot of PA66. PA66 raw material side has poor support for spot goods, and the demand situation is weak and stable. Terminal enterprises mainly rely on goods to maintain production, and buyers generally resist high priced sources of goods. It is expected that PA66 may continue its weak consolidation in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the spot price of PA66 is mainly down. The price trend of the raw material side is acceptable, but the support for the cost side of PA66 is average. The load of PA66 enterprise is maintained, and there is no significant improvement in supply support. The demand side takes goods to maintain production, and it is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak and vulnerable market in the short term.

Precious metal prices rose in July

Precious metal prices rose in July. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of gold in the Spot market will be 454.47 yuan/g on July 14, 2023, up 1.31% from 448.60 yuan/g in the Spot market at the beginning of the month (July 1)

Silver fell back to the beginning of the month

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of silver in the market will be 5808 yuan/kg on July 14, 2023, up 6.92% from 5432.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month (July 1).

Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil

In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation. The trend of precious metals and crude oil began to converge in late March, but after mid April, the trend began to diverge again. Mainly due to the increased impact of risk aversion on the rise of precious metal prices. Recently, crude oil prices have rebounded, and precious metal prices have also followed suit.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise. Silver prices began to decline in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices reached a high level and silver prices began to rise.

Policy Fundamentals Data

Data shows that the US consumer price index recorded its smallest annual increase in more than two years in June, prompting traders to bet that the Federal Reserve may end the current rate hike cycle after raising interest rates this month. Before the data was released, CME Federal Reserve observation showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged from 5.00% to 5.25% in July was 7.6%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 5.25% to 5.50% was 92.4%; The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged by September is 6.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point increase is 75.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point increase is 18.5%. After the data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged from 5.00% to 5.25% in July is 10.1%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 5.25% to 5.50% is 89.9%; The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged by September is 8.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point increase is 80.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point increase is 10.8%.

noble metal

At present, the price of precious metals has been fluctuating in the high range after hitting a 10-year high in the early stage. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively strong sense of risk aversion, which is currently reflected in prices. Some central banks around the world increased their holdings of Gold reserve, which also formed some support for gold prices.

It is expected that the price of precious metals will fluctuate strongly and consolidate in July, with a bullish outlook in the medium to long term.