According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 26th, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8850.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56% compared to Monday’s price.

This week, the market for epichlorohydrin was mainly down, with some companies adjusting their prices. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has decreased, the cost support for propylene method has weakened, and the price of glycerol has remained stable and fluctuating. The cost pressure for glycerol method still exists, and the production capacity utilization rate of the supply side industry has increased compared to the previous period. However, the enthusiasm for downstream inquiries in the market is not high, manufacturers are under pressure to ship, and the mentality of operators is insufficient. The focus of negotiations in the epichlorohydrin market has declined.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for propylene on May 25th was 6450.75, a decrease of 8.53% compared to May 1st (7052.60).

Downstream epoxy resin, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of epoxy resin on May 25th was 14100.00, a decrease of 3.64% compared to May 1st (14633.33).

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the current market for propylene as a raw material is weak, with insufficient cost support and sluggish demand, putting pressure on the mindset of the industry. It is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin will be weak in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in supply side devices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 25th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises is 3875.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to Monday’s price.

This week, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market continued its stable trend. The recent weak and stable operation of the raw material sulfuric acid market and the narrow consolidation of the raw material methanol market have little impact on the cost side. Downstream manufacturers mostly purchase on demand, and the overall market trading atmosphere is mild. The focus of negotiations in the formic acid market is stable.

Upstream product: Upstream sulfuric acid. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of sulfuric acid was 188.00 on May 24th, a decrease of 13.89% compared to May 1st (218.33); Upstream methanol, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for methanol on May 24th was 2175.83, a decrease of 10.21% compared to May 1st (2423.33).

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost impact is limited, and market transactions just need to be orderly. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may remain stable in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Recent price trends of urea

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of urea in the domestic urea market fell slightly this week, from 2535.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2495.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 1.58%. Weekend prices fell by 23.58% year-on-year. On May 22nd, the urea commodity index was 115.76, a decrease of 0.29 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 24.01% from the highest point of 152.33 points in the cycle (2022-05-15), and an increase of 108.20% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Weak cost support, average downstream demand, and abundant urea supply

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly decreased this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has slightly declined this week. The price of liquefied natural gas has slightly decreased, from 3964.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3740.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 5.65%. The weekend price has dropped by 45.11% year-on-year; The price of anthracite was adjusted at a low level. This weekend, the price of anthracite (washing block) in Yangquan was 1160 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia has slightly increased, rising from 3223.33 yuan/ton last weekend to 3250.00 yuan/ton this weekend, an increase of 0.83%. The weekend price has decreased by 37.78% year-on-year. Upstream raw material prices have slightly declined, weakening support for urea prices. The price of melamine downstream of urea slightly decreased this week, from 7450.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7375.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.01%.

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand is average, while industrial demand is normal. In some southern regions, rice has started to prepare and use fertilizers, and agricultural demand is average. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is acceptable, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is average. The board and melamine enterprises are operating normally, and the main focus is on purchasing just in need. From a supply perspective, the daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late May, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream of urea has slightly declined, and the cost of urea is generally supported. Downstream agricultural demand is average, while industrial demand is normal. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic methanol market has once again declined. From May 15th to 19th (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market dropped from 2335 yuan/ton to 2282 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the price fell by 2.28%, with a maximum amplitude of 3.52%, a month on month decrease of 10.49%, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.75%.

The domestic methanol market has significantly declined, and the market atmosphere continues to be weak. After the futures price fell below the integer threshold of 2200 yuan/ton, the market sentiment became less confident. At the same time, the raw coal is still weak, the downstream demand is weak for a long time, the social inventory of the methanol market continues to accumulate, the source of imported goods also continues to pour in, and the spot market price of methanol drops again and again.

As of the close on May 19th, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange have been lowered. The main methanol futures contract 2309 opened at 2225 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 2232 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2161 yuan/ton. It closed at 2167 yuan/ton in the end, a decrease of 87 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, a decrease of 3.86%. The trading volume was 1693932, the position was 1786940, and the daily increase was 232062.

As of May 19, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Region/ Price

Shanxi region/ 2140-2160 yuan/ton factory withdrawal foreign exchange

Liaoning region/ About 2530 yuan/ton

Anhui region/ 2450-2500 yuan/ton factory acceptance

Henan region/ 2230 yuan/ton factory withdrawal foreign exchange

On the cost side, there is a clear contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The price of raw coal is mainly weak. The cost of methanol is relatively weak.

On the demand side, downstream formaldehyde: inventory pressure is slightly increasing, and formaldehyde demand may decrease; Downstream dimethyl ether: A plant in East China has returned to normal, with a slight increase in demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand or increase; The demand for acetic acid may decrease. The demand side for methanol is biased towards bearish effects.

On the supply side, the overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a significant decrease in capacity utilization. The temporary storage of methanol supply is favorable.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on May 18th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $341.00- $343.00 per ton, a decrease of $2 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 88.00-91.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 273.00-275.00 euros/ton.

Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Up and down

Asia/ CFR Southeast Asia/ 335.00-337.00 USD/ton./-2 USD/ton

Europe and America/ The Gulf of the United States/ 85.00-88.00 cents/gallon./-2 cents/gallon

Europe/ FOB Rotterdam/ 272.00-274.00 euros/ton./0 euros/ton

In the future market forecast, supply remains abundant, demand changes are limited, and costs may temporarily stabilize. Business Society Methanol Analysts predict that the domestic methanol market may continue to be weak.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market fell sharply this week, from 210.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 196.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 6.67%. Weekend prices fell 82.05% year-on-year. On May 15th, the sulfuric acid commodity index was 30.51, which was unchanged from yesterday and set a new historical low in the cycle, a decrease of 83.78% from the highest point of 188.07 on April 13, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream market slightly rises, while downstream procurement enthusiasm weakens

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 750.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 763.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.78%. Over the weekend, prices fell by 80.19% year-on-year, with a slight increase in upstream prices and good cost support. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market declined slightly, with the market price falling from 10128.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10114.29 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 0.14%. Weekend prices fell by 13.70% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market was adjusted at a low level, and the market price was 16950.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 19.09% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly declined, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid to late May, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream sulfur market started to decline slightly over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. Downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid market declined slightly, downstream customers’ purchasing enthusiasm for sulfuric acid weakened, and the product trend declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business community believe that the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, and the price of sulfuric acid market may fluctuate slightly.

In the first half of May, the market for butadiene rubber weakened and declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 15th, the domestic price of butadiene rubber was 11100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.46% from 11380 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material butadiene has decreased, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has declined; During the cycle, the factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber suppliers has been adjusted twice (first increased and then decreased), and merchant offers have slightly decreased. According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of May 15th, the factory price of butadiene rubber at Sinopec North China Sales Company was reported at 11000 yuan/ton. As of May 15th, the mainstream market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 10800-11300 yuan/ton.

In the first half of May, the supply of butadiene rubber slightly increased, and there are still plans to restart devices in the later stage, making it difficult to alleviate the pressure on the supply of butadiene rubber in the short term.

In the first half of May, the price of raw material butadiene declined weakly, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 15th, the price of butadiene was 8281 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.44% from 8851 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The natural rubber market slightly increased in the first half of May, providing slight support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 15th, the price of natural rubber was 11880 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.39% from 11490 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The tire operating rate slightly decreased in the first half of May, which had a strong demand for rubber support but was weaker compared to the previous period. It is understood that as of mid May 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.3%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.00%.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that in the near future, some butadiene rubber units will restart and there are also expectations of restarting some units in the future, resulting in increased pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber; Downstream construction has slightly decreased, resulting in poor procurement of butadiene rubber. Although natural rubber prices have slightly increased, natural rubber inventory is still accumulating, and short-term support for butadiene rubber is not optimistic. Overall, it is expected that butadiene rubber will experience weak consolidation in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride by o-phthalic acid dropped slightly this week. By the end of the weekend, the quotation of phthalic anhydride by o-phthalic acid was 7962.5 yuan/ton, 1.85% lower than the price of 8112.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 1.09% lower than the same period last year.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

Recently, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants has been stable, and the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has been operating steadily. Currently, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China is around 60%, and the supply of goods is normal. The delivery situation of phthalic anhydride is average, and the market situation of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined.

Cost end: price trend of o-benzene market declines

This week, the price trend of domestic ortho benzene declined. By the end of the week, the price of ortho benzene was 8300 yuan/ton, down 2.35% from the price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The supply of ortho benzene was normal, and the operation of on-site devices was stable. This week, the price of crude oil fell slightly, the pressure on the decline of ortho xylene cost increased, the demand for ortho xylene was weak, and the price of ortho xylene in the external market fell. The decline of ortho benzene price had a negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market, and the price of phthalic anhydride market fell slightly.

On the demand side: DOP market trend is declining, with on-demand procurement being the main focus

The price trend of downstream DOP market is declining. This week, the price is down 6.89%. At present, the domestic DOP price is 10009 yuan/ton. The domestic DOP enterprises are starting steadily. The demand for phthalic anhydride is mainly based on demand. The mainstream price of DOP is 10000-10100 yuan/ton. The main reason for the sharp decline of DOP price is the fall in the price of raw material isooctanol. On the whole, the demand of plasticizer industry is poor. Affected by this, the price of phthalic anhydride market declines slightly.

In the future, the price trend of o-xylene has declined slightly in the short term, but the demand of downstream plasticizer industry has not improved significantly. The supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the effect is general. It is expected that the price trend of o-phthalic anhydride market in the later period will be mainly volatile.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11133 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the weekend was 11166 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.30%.

Most domestic activated carbon manufacturers’ quotations are stable, with some rising. The factory price of activated carbon for water purification in East China Coconut Shell ranges from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton, and the market inquiry atmosphere is active. Downstream markets maintain just in demand for purchases, with a focus on market transactions.

Activated carbon has a rich source of raw materials, including coal, sawdust, fruit shells, straw, etc. Through a series of processes, activated carbon suitable for water treatment is prepared. At the same time, activated carbon manufacturers are constantly improving the performance of activated carbon, increasing its working capacity, and effectively adsorbing and purifying wastewater.

Prediction: Most of the activated carbon market is sold according to orders, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price trend of the domestic ammonium nitrate market was temporarily stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4340 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 4340 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 5.65% year on year.

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market was temporarily stable, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the site was sufficient, the goods on the site were generally shipped, the manufacturer’s inventory was not high, the price trend of terminal upstream liquid ammonia declined slightly, the price of nitric acid declined slightly, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has been normal, and downstream purchases are on demand. Recently, downstream demand for nitro compound fertilizers has been normal, while domestic procurement in the downstream civilian explosive industry is average. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have not started production high, and the price of ammonium nitrate has been stable recently. As of now, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are 5300-5400 yuan/ton, Shandong region is 4500-4600 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is 4600-4700 yuan/ton.

The price of concentrated nitric acid in China has slightly declined this week, with an average price of 2433.33 yuan/ton as of the 6th, a decrease of 0.68% compared to the price of 2450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer prices ranging from 2400 to 2600 yuan/ton, while northern and central China offer prices ranging from 2200 to 2400 yuan/ton. At present, the pressure on the supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market is not decreasing, demand continues to be weak, and costs are declining. The supply of the concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the market mainly relies on orders. The market volume is average, and industry insiders are mostly wait-and-see. The on-site price of nitric acid has slightly decreased, and the market situation of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia is temporarily stable this week, with liquid ammonia prices reaching 3233.33 yuan/ton as of the weekend, which is unchanged from the price of 3233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. In April, the supply performance was abundant, and manufacturers’ accumulated inventory guided them to continuously lower their factory prices. In April, manufacturers’ quotations significantly declined, and there has been little change in domestic ammonia release recently. However, supply pressure still exists, and liquid ammonia prices remain weak. The low price of upstream liquid ammonia has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is general, the price of liquid ammonia market fluctuates, the price of nitric acid drops slightly, and the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is normal. Ammonium nitrate analysts from the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate in the later period may stabilize temporarily.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the overall price of toluene has shown a trend of rising and then falling this month. On April 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 7080 yuan/ton, and on April 28th, it was 7450 yuan/ton, an increase of 370 yuan/ton or 5.23% compared to the beginning of the month.

In terms of crude oil, on April 2nd, OPEC+member countries suddenly announced a collective reduction in oil production. On the 6th, OPEC+member countries, mainly Saudi Arabia, and Russia announced that they would further reduce production. Starting from May, OPEC+will further reduce production by about 1.15 million barrels per day compared to April; Many countries have announced the implementation of voluntary oil production cuts, and global crude oil demand remains growing. The possibility of a significant drop in oil prices is low, and oil prices may fluctuate among the main players; The additional reduction in OPEC+production will exacerbate the oil supply shortage in the second half of 2023, and the situation of crude oil supply exceeding demand is approaching.

In terms of economy, in the second half of the month, US economic data showed that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again. The Fed’s rate hike is nearing its end, and the US economy is inevitably entering a recession. The rise of the US dollar and investors’ concerns about the economic outlook have led to pressure on oil prices; There is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates. US anti inflation concerns have increased expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in May, leading to a strengthening of the US dollar and rising market concerns, putting pressure on oil prices.

The crude oil price fluctuated and showed an inverted “V” trend in April. On April 28th, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil in the trading company was 74.30 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -0.09% compared to the beginning of this month (74.37 US dollars per barrel); The benchmark price of Brent crude oil is 77.72 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -1.12% compared to the beginning of this month (78.60 US dollars per barrel).

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI has increased significantly this month. On April 1st, the price was 17700 yuan/ton, and on April 28th, the price rose to 19500 yuan/ton. Within the month, the price increased by 1800 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 10.17%. The fundamentals of the domestic TDI market remain positive this month, with high levels remaining stable. The supply side news is quiet, and TDI spot performance is tight. Traders have reported strong high levels, with businesses mainly on the sidelines.

On the downstream side, domestic PX prices rose slightly in the early stages of this month, remained stable in the middle, and fell at the end of the month. On April 1st, the price was 8800 yuan/ton, and on April 28th, the price rose to 9000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.27%. In the short term, the downstream market support for px gradually weakens, and the market lacks support.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices have fluctuated and fluctuated this month. At the beginning of the month, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8412.6 yuan/ton. On April 28th, the price was 8648.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 236 yuan/ton or 2.81% compared to the beginning of the month. The domestic refined oil market still lacks demand support, the market trading atmosphere is light, and the sales pressure of main units at the end of the month is high, resulting in a downward pressure on domestic gasoline prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In terms of crude oil, there is uncertainty in the outlook for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, with the strengthening of the US dollar and an increase in market risk aversion. Optimistic Chinese economic data and a positive outlook for energy demand provide support for oil prices, waiting for new guidance in May; As the weather warms up and the May Day holiday approaches, people’s willingness to travel and activity radius increase, and gasoline demand gradually increases. However, downstream demand for fine chemicals is weak, providing limited price support, and gasoline demand is unstable. It is expected that participants in the refined oil market will operate cautiously after the holiday. Affected by fundamentals, it is expected that the price of toluene will first decline and then rise next month. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and gasoline, the dynamics of toluene units, and the impact of downstream demand on prices.