1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride has slightly declined this week, with the price falling from 3850.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3812.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.97%. The arrival price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this week is 3400-3500 yuan/ton. The port has a storage capacity of about 2.5 million tons. On March 19th, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 121.03, unchanged from yesterday, down 30.68% from the cycle’s highest point of 174.60 (2022-06-21), and up 107.78% from the lowest point of 58.25 on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to March 1st, 2012 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, prices quoted by mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers fell slightly. The port’s 62% self raised price of white potassium was around 3450-3550 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong Granules at the port is around 3650-3750 yuan/ton. Border trade 62% Russian white potassium is around 3300-3400 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex-factory price of potassium carbonate stabilized at a low level this week, with a price of 9100.00 yuan/ton, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.37% compared to the same period last year. The ex-factory price of potassium nitrate decreased slightly this week, from 5940.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5900.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.67%, a year-on-year decrease of 16.31% compared to the same period last year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride declined slightly, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

In late March, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have stabilized at low levels. The downstream market of potassium chloride has declined slightly, with downstream demand weakening, and procurement is mainly for immediate needs. International potash fertilizer prices continue to decline. Potassium chloride analysts from the Business Agency believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may decline slightly in the short term.

According to the data from the previous stock exchange, from the beginning of March to now, Shanghai Rubber has continued to fluctuate and decline, with the main contract falling from about 12500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to about 11550 yuan/ton, with a range of 7.6%. Among them, on the 16th, it fell by more than 400 points on a single day, making it the largest single day decline so far this month. According to the data from the Business News Agency, the spot market of natural rubber in China has been fluctuating in tandem with the futures trend. As of March 17, 2023, the domestic full latex market in East China was 11330 yuan/ton, down 5.5% month on month and 11.35% year on year.

Moreover, as can be seen from Figure 2 and Figure 3, the current price level is not only the lowest level since 2023, but also the lowest level in the domestic natural rubber market since Tianjiao reached its annual low of 11170 yuan/ton on October 31, 2022.

Influencing factors:

Large increase in imports in the early stage

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on March 7th, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased significantly from January to February 2023, compared to 1193000 tons in the same period of 2022. The significant increase in import volume in the previous two months has offset the positive supply side shortage, and currently, the import of rubber from major domestic ports is still continuing to arrive.

Current inventory accumulation

Affected by the continuous arrival of imported glue at the port, China’s bonded port areas and social areas have continued to accumulate stock of spot glue. According to data, as of March 5, 2023, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao was 594900 tons, an increase of 16200 tons compared to the previous period, with a year-on-year increase of 2.81%. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.89% to 107300 tons on a month-on-month basis, while general trade inventory increased by 2.79% to 487600 tons on a month-on-month basis. It is understood that the current market is slowly digesting, with poor circulation, and a continuous accumulation of natural rubber, resulting in an oversupply of natural rubber.

Impact of crude oil slump

As the most fundamental source of chemicals, the trend of crude oil is the most direct macro influencing factor for the rise and fall of futures commodities. On March 15th, due to the impact of credit Suisse’s unease on the financial market, causing pressure on risky assets such as stock market and crude oil, and the negative impact of US crude oil inventory growth exceeding expectations, international crude oil futures plummeted: WTI fell 5.2%; Brent fell 4.9%. Affected by this, on the 16th, most futures varieties in the domestic futures market fell, resulting in a strong bearish atmosphere; The main contract of Shanghai Rubber fell by more than 400 points on a single day, and the domestic spot rubber price fell along with the market, making the market increasingly cautious in investing in natural rubber.

Future Forecast:

In terms of annual comparison, in the first quarter of 2023, natural rubber did not break out of the sharp rise in the traditional annual low production period. Instead, after a sharp decline in early February, it continued to fluctuate slightly and fell to this point, with a significant overall decline. In 2022, the natural rubber market in the same period was affected by public health events, resulting in limited circulation in consumption areas and reduced downstream demand.

In terms of supply, although natural rubber is currently in the global seasonal annual low production period, a small amount of production will be started in eastern and southeastern Yunnan as soon as the end of this month, and Hainan will also start production in the middle of next month. The market is concerned about the market changes caused by the current demand situation and the further increase in supply in the future, with strong bearish sentiment.

On the downstream side, although domestic rubber product companies have slowly recovered since the middle of last month, and there has been an upward trend in heavy truck sales data, the actual procurement demand of downstream product companies has not significantly improved, and the market supply and demand situation is still dominated by more supply and less demand, which is still a negative trend.

It is expected that under the influence of the current macro situation, the future market of natural rubber is not very optimistic. At the end of the first quarter, the market will still be shrouded in a strong bearish atmosphere in the investment market, and weak downstream demand will still lead to a lack of substantive support for the upward trend of the natural rubber market. The market panic caused by excessive decline in rubber futures needs time to digest; In the second quarter, the poor demand situation at home and abroad is expected to continue for a long time. As a major importer, China will continue to reduce its spot rubber orders to major Southeast Asian producers due to the high spot rubber inventory, and the prices of Thailand and Malaysia latex are expected to continue to suffer from significant downward risks; China’s downstream product enterprises have finished products in stock, and the wait-and-see mood is heating up. The market may continue to be weak.

According to the bulk list data of the Business Agency, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 8125.00 yuan/ton as of March 10, which was the same as that on Monday.

The acrylic acid market was running smoothly this week. Recently, the price of raw material propylene is relatively strong, the cost support is stable, the maintenance of enterprises at the supply side remains centralized, the market supply is shrinking, the purchasing mentality on the demand side is cautious, the intention of receiving goods at the terminal is general, and the market transaction is just on demand.

Upstream propylene, according to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, the price of propylene in Shandong Province has stopped falling and rebounded recently, with a narrow rise of 50 yuan/ton for two consecutive days. On March 9, the reference price of propylene was 7464.60, down 0.77% from March 1 (7522.60).

The acrylic acid analyst of the Business Society believes that there is some support in the cost side at present. With the support of downstream procurement on demand and tight supply, it is expected that the acrylic acid market will be strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of March 10, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 20333.33 yuan/ton, up 5.17% from 19333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16.19% from the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of March 10, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25000.00 yuan/ton, up 3.38% from the price of 24666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, which was the same as that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In March, the domestic price of trichloromethane continued to rise. As of March 10, the price of trichloromethane rose 7.03% in the month, while the price of hydrofluoric acid fell 0.58%. In general, the cost of raw materials in the upstream of R22 continued to rise. Supported by the rising cost of raw materials, the manufacturers continued to raise the factory price of R22 after March, driving the domestic market price of R22 to continue to rise.

With the gradual rise of domestic temperature, the domestic refrigerant consumption demand has gradually warmed up, and the domestic refrigerant R22 price has also been supported by the steady demand in the downstream.

In March, the domestic trichloroethylene price remained stable and the hydrofluoric acid price declined slightly. As of March 10, the hydrofluoric acid price fell slightly by 0.58% in the month. In general, the upstream raw material cost of R134a was generally weak. Supported by the overall low inventory of domestic R134a and the recovery of refrigerant demand after the temperature rose, the domestic R134a price rose slightly in March.

In terms of raw materials, compared with the domestic hydrofluoric acid price in previous years, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price will continue to run at a relatively low level after the overall rise and fall in 2023, and the continued low cost of raw materials will have a certain effect on the continued rise of the domestic R134a price in the future.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Refrigerant analysts of the Business Agency believe that in terms of R22, the price of trichloromethane has risen sharply, and the peak season of refrigerant demand is approaching, supported by the double benefits of cost and demand, it is expected that the domestic R22 market price will still have some room for recovery in the short term. For R134a, the raw material cost continues to fluctuate at a low level, the temperature rises, the demand for refrigerant improves, and the price of domestic refrigerant R134a will continue to rise in the short term.

The price of DOTP fell in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of March 13, the average price of DOTP was 9937.50 yuan/ton, down by 1.00% from the average price of 10037.5 yuan/ton on March 6. Plasticizer enterprises started steadily, the supply of DOTP was sufficient, the price of raw materials fell, and the cost of DOTP was insufficient. This week, the price of DOTP fell sharply.

The price of raw materials was reduced due to shock this week

According to the data detection of the business agency; As of March 13, the price of isooctanol was 9271.43 yuan/ton, down 2.11% from 9471.43 yuan/ton on March 6. Downstream demand for isooctanol is temporarily stable, and downstream customers seek bargains to replenish stocks. This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell. The rising power of DOTP weakened and the falling pressure increased. Later, the stable demand for isooctanol was temporarily stable, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated. Later, the rising power of DOTP weakened and the falling pressure remained.

According to the data of the Business Agency, as of March 13, the PTA price was 5868 yuan/ton, up 1.35% from the price of 5790 yuan/ton on March 6. PTA enterprises started to rise this week. With the arrival of the traditional peak season in March, the number of PTA depots increased, and the demand for PTA is expected to warm up. The price of PTA fluctuated and rose in March, and the cost support for DOTP raw materials still exists. It is expected that the momentum for the rise of DOTP in the future will still exist.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of the Business Agency, the raw material of plasticizer DOTP, isooctanol, fell in shock this week, the price of PTA rose in shock, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw material stabilized; Downstream customers are looking for bargains to replenish stocks. The demand for DOTP is temporarily stable this week, and the support for DOTP demand is weak. As the economic recovery is less than expected, the price of isooctanol fluctuates and falls, and the peak season comes. PTA prices fluctuate and rise this week, and the demand for PVC recovers slowly. In the future, the demand is temporarily stable due to insufficient cost support. It is expected that the future DOTP will fluctuate and consolidate.

According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 10566 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 10600 yuan/ton, up 0.32%.

The quotation of domestic activated carbon manufacturers remained stable, with some rising. The ex-factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China was between 9500-12000 yuan/ton, and the market was mainly based on orders. It was in urgent need of good news support, and focused on market transactions.

The source of activated carbon raw materials is rich, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell, straw, etc. The activated carbon suitable for water treatment is prepared through a series of processes. At the same time, the activated carbon manufacturers are also continuously improving the performance of activated carbon, increasing its working capacity, and effectively adsorbing and purifying wastewater.

Forecast: the active carbon market is mainly based on consumption of inventory, and it is expected that the price of active carbon will be mainly in a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic aggregate MDI market fell first and then rose in February, and fell overall. From February 1 to 28, the market price of domestic aggregate MDI fell from 16700 yuan/ton to 16560 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.84% during the cycle and a year-on-year drop of 19.22%.

At the beginning of the month, the shortage of spot goods boosted the market, coupled with the sharp increase in the monthly settlement price of the production enterprises, the traders’ quotations rose sharply, and the market focus continued to rise. Downstream industries have recovered in succession, and the operating rate of refrigerator and freezer industries has increased. The overall driving force of domestic aggregate MDI market is relatively strong. The aggregate MDI market continued to decline due to excessive increase, low willingness of downstream acceptance, limited follow-up and insufficient gas buying. In the last ten days of this month, some traders and downstream buyers bought at a lower price, and the overall demand increased compared with the previous period. Near the end of the month, the listing price of major manufacturers rose sharply on a month-on-month basis. At the same time, the external sales volume decreased, the supply was good, and the aggregate MDI market rebounded.

On the supply side, Chongqing BASF 400000 t/a unit entered the maintenance state on February 5, and the supply was reduced. Under no great pressure from the production enterprises, it was still in a price attitude.

In terms of cost, raw material pure benzene: pure benzene fell first and then rose, with little price fluctuation. On February 1, the price was 7000-7300 yuan/ton (the average price was 7150 yuan/ton); On February 27, the price was 7000-7470 yuan/ton (the average price was 7235 yuan/ton), up 1.18% this month, down 8.86% from the same period last year. Raw aniline: orders from some downstream factories increased, and demand warmed; Combined with the planned overhaul of aniline plant in March, the overall state of mind of the market was positive, and the aniline market rose sharply. There are positive factors in the cost of short-term aggregate MDI.

On the demand side, the trading atmosphere in the terminal market is poor, and the ability to follow orders is limited. Downstream factories and traders still have some early inventory, and short-term inventory orders are mainly digested.

In the future, it is predicted that the settlement price of manufacturing enterprises will rise on a month-on-month basis, and the supply side will maintain strong support, but the follow-up capacity of the demand side is relatively limited. According to the analyst of MDI polymerization of the Business Agency, the market situation of MDI polymerization in China is mainly stalemate and consolidation.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic hydrochloric acid price rose sharply this week, with the average market price rising from 164.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 176.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 7.32%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 33.08% year-on-year. The hydrochloric acid commodity index on March 5 was 46.32, which was the same as yesterday, down 66.41% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 157.62% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Upstream support increases, and downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rose slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly and the cost support increased. The market price of polyaluminum chloride in the downstream market is low, and the price is 1925.00 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decline was 17.38%; The market price of ammonium chloride is high, and the market price is 1205.00 yuan/ton. On the whole, upstream support has increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is general.

Aftermarket forecast

In the first ten days of March, the market price of hydrochloric acid may rise in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market has risen slightly recently, and the cost support has increased. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has been consolidated at a low level, and the ammonium chloride market has been consolidated at a high level. The downstream purchasing willingness is general. Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that hydrochloric acid is mainly rising after a small fluctuation recently.

From February 24 to March 3, 2023, the production price of coal tar in Shanxi fell. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average market price at the weekend was 5607.5 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 5512.5 yuan/ton, down 1.69%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above monthly coal tar K-column chart that the coal tar market has declined for three consecutive months since November 2022, and the price has started to rise since February. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the coal tar market has fallen for six consecutive weeks, and the price has gradually warmed up after the Spring Festival.

The coal tar (high temperature) commodity index on March 2 was 192.24, down 1.12 points from yesterday, down 16.95% from the cycle’s highest point of 231.47 (2022-11-09), and up 307.72% from the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

This week, the bidding price of coal tar in Shanxi was mainly down, with the mainstream implementation of 5500-5580 yuan/ton, down 100-150 yuan/ton from the auction price last week. At present, in terms of supply, coking enterprises have started work fairly well, the operating rate is basically flat compared with the previous period, the tar supply is relatively stable, the downstream performance is average, and the resistance to high prices is strong, and the tar price is mainly downward this week.

Supply: Since the operating rate of coking enterprises entered the second half of February, with the recovery of the downstream steel market and the recovery of demand for coke, the operating rate of coking enterprises has increased slightly. As of this Friday, the operating rate of coking enterprises in major regions in China has increased slightly, and the overall supply of coal tar is relatively sufficient.

Demand: The deep processing industry is the main application field of high temperature coal tar. The main commodities obtained by deep processing include naphthalene, anthracene oil, wash oil, asphalt, etc. Downstream commodities rose and fell this week, with only the price of industrial naphthalene and wash oil rising slightly. In the early stage, with the tar price rising all the way, the profit of the deep-processing industry continued to decline, and the resistance to high-priced tar was strong, and the downstream delivery capacity further declined. The operating rate of the deep-processing industry this week was basically the same as that of last week. Under the pressure of the downstream, the auction price of tar this week was significantly reduced.

On March 3, the auction of the Japanese week was basically over, and the tar price in the main domestic production areas was mainly down, and the downward range varied from place to place. The mainstream price in Shanxi is 5500-5600 yuan/ton, down by about 150 yuan/ton. In Shandong, it is 5500 yuan/ton, down about 300 yuan/ton. In Henan Province, it is 5550 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton.

In the future, the business agency believes that with the current round of tar price correction, the profits of the deep processing industry will be partially recovered, and the overall receiving capacity of the downstream deep processing market is still weak, and the mentality of suppressing tar still exists, but the current operating rate is generally stable, and the market just needs to remain. In a comprehensive view, under the current environment of weak demand and moderate supply, it is expected that the tar market will operate in a stable and weak manner next week.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the sulfur price trend in East China was volatile in February, and the market was weak and downward. As of February 28, the average ex-factory price of sulfur in the East China market was 1116.67 yuan/ton, which was 4.56% lower than the average ex-factory price of 1170 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Within the month, the sulfur market in East China was weak and sorted out, the refinery units were operating normally, the market supply of goods was stable, while the enthusiasm of downstream delivery was general, the market trading atmosphere was weak, coupled with the impact of the port supply of goods on the market, the refinery shipments were poor, and the inventory of some enterprises was accumulated, and the sulfur price was adjusted according to their own shipments.

Downstream sulfuric acid market rose strongly in February, with the market price of sulfuric acid at 231.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 253.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 9.35% in the month. In February, the trend of domestic sulphuric acid continued to rise, the market turnover warmed up, the enthusiasm of the downstream to take goods increased, the enterprise’s shipment was smooth, and the enterprise’s inventory was not under pressure, the operators were optimistic, and the price of sulphuric acid rose within the month.

The market of monoammonium phosphate fell in February, the market demand for monoammonium phosphate was weak, there were few new orders in the market, the negotiation atmosphere was not good, and the focus of market transactions moved down. As of February 28, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate was 3330 yuan/ton, which was 1.11% lower than the average price of 3367 yuan/ton on February 1.

According to the aftermarket forecast, the sulfur analyst of the Business Society believes that the current sulfur market is in sufficient supply, and the follow-up of the downstream purchase is not good, and the on-site trading atmosphere is weak. Considering the use of fertilizer for spring plowing, the future demand may improve. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will operate on a wait-and-see basis, and the price range will fluctuate, with specific attention paid to the downstream follow-up.