According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has remained stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9657.14 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of 9657.14 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, a year-on-year decrease of 17.18%.

Supply side: The price trend of hydrofluoric acid has been weak and stable this week. The mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid discussed by various regions in China is 9500-9900 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices are still in shutdown, but the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, and the order situation of manufacturers for hydrofluoric acid is weak. As a result, the market trend of hydrofluoric acid remains weak.

Raw material side: The market price trend of raw material fluorite is temporarily stable, and as of the 16th, the average price of domestic fluorite is 3136.25 yuan/ton. Recently, the operating rate of domestic fluorite enterprises has slightly increased, and the spot supply of fluorite has increased. On the one hand, there is still tension in upstream mining, and outdated mines will continue to be phased out. In terms of adding new mines, mineral investigation work remains challenging. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, making it more difficult to start fluorite mines. The shortage of raw materials has restricted fluorite enterprises from starting operations. On the other hand, the operating load of domestic hydrofluoric acid is around 60%, and there is still a rigid demand for fluorite procurement. Some hydrofluoric acid enterprises have reduced production, resulting in a weakened demand for raw material fluorite. However, due to the tight supply of raw materials, the fluorite market still has some support, and the price trend of fluorite is stable.

On the demand side: The downstream refrigerant product market of the terminal is sluggish, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. Recently, there has been sufficient refrigerant supply, driving the domestic refrigerant R22 price to remain low. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and the domestic market performance is weak. Inventory digestion is the main focus, and procurement demand has not yet been followed up. Domestic R134a manufacturers operate at low loads, and the price trend of R134a is weak and stable. Currently, on-demand procurement is the main trend, while downstream enterprises are not operating high. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the demand for consumer orders has not yet warmed up. Market confidence is insufficient. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 24000-25000 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not resumed production. Demand orders are still small, and the market is stagnant and declining. Overall, the refrigerant market is not good, The operating rate is less than 30%, coupled with a decline in the export market, resulting in weak domestic and external demand. The refrigerant market is sluggish, and upstream raw material procurement is scarce. The hydrofluoric acid market remains low due to demand drag.

Future Market Forecast: In the short term, there will be little change in the raw material fluorite market, and the downstream refrigerant industry will remain sluggish. The refrigerant market is weak, and the purchase of hydrofluoric acid is light. In addition, the normal spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has affected the production of hydrofluoric acid enterprises, causing serious losses. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at Business Society, believes that the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid will remain stable in the short term.

This week (6.5-6.12), the acrylonitrile market slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 12th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 8137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.81% from last Monday’s 8287 yuan/ton. At present, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile in the market is between 7800 to 8200 yuan/ton. Low consolidation of raw material prices, weak support for acrylonitrile; The downstream atmosphere is weak, and prices have decreased slightly, while the demand for acrylonitrile continues to be weak; In addition, the supply side is still relatively loose, and the acrylonitrile market has slightly declined; But with the increase of parking companies, the downward trend of acrylonitrile has decreased.

This week (6.5-6.12), the domestic acrylonitrile operating rate slightly decreased, but the overall supply side remains loose. Anqing Petrochemical’s 210000 tons/year acrylonitrile unit will be shut down for defect elimination starting from June 5th.

Recently (6.5-6.12), the raw material propylene market has stabilized at a low level, and the cost support for acrylonitrile continues to be weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 12th, the domestic propylene price was 6255 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% from last Monday’s 6270 yuan/ton, and the cycle high was 6325 yuan/ton.

Downstream ABS prices have stabilized at a low level, but industry device starts continue to decline slightly to around 8.1%, and support for acrylonitrile demand continues to weaken; Domestic Nitrile rubber declined slightly, the price of polyacrylamide was adjusted at a low level, and the support for acrylonitrile was weak.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society Acrylonitrile Analysts believe that the current supply of acrylonitrile is still loose, coupled with continued weak demand and low cost consolidation, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will be weak and volatile in the short term; If parking and maintenance devices continue to increase in the later stage, the price of acrylonitrile may be expected to stop falling and rebound.

O-Xylene price stabilized this week

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 9, the price of O-Xylene was 8100 yuan/ton, which was more stable than that of O-Xylene on September 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of mixed xylene fell in shock, the downstream market of phthalic anhydride fell in shock, and the market of ortho benzene industry chain remained weak, but the price decline of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride slowed down, the import of ortho benzene decreased, and the export volume increased. In June, the price of O-Xylene stabilized.

The raw material mixed xylene market fluctuated and fell in June

According to the market analysis system of mixed xylene products in the Business Society, as of June 9th, the price of mixed xylene was 7360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton or 1.47% compared to the price of 7470 yuan/ton as of May 31st last month. In June, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and fell, the decline of mixed xylene slowed down, and the downward pressure of O-Xylene market weakened.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market fluctuates and falls

According to the analysis system of the market for phthalic anhydride products in the Business Society, as of June 9th, the quotation for phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7687.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.38% compared to the price of 7875 yuan/ton as of May 31st last month. In June, the price of phthalic anhydride fell in shock, but the decline of phthalic anhydride slowed down, the export of phthalic anhydride increased, the price of nefa phthalic anhydride stopped falling and rose, and the upward momentum of O-Xylene market remained.

Weakening imports and increasing exports

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of O-Xylene from January to April was 28027575 kg, with a year-on-year decrease in the import volume. The export volume of O-Xylene from January to April was 25565258 kg, with a year-on-year increase in the export volume. The import of ortho benzene has weakened and the export has increased. The demand support for ortho benzene still exists, and the downward pressure on ortho benzene has weakened.

Future prospects

Analysts of O-Xylene data from the business agency believe that the prices of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride dropped in June, but the decline of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride slowed down, and the industrial chain of o-xylene remained weak. O-Xylene imports decreased and exports increased, while O-Xylene support remained. In the future, the price decline of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride slowed down, the import of O-Xylene weakened and the export increased, the demand support for o-xylene remained, and the downward pressure on o-xylene weakened. It is expected that the price of o-xylene in the future will stabilize.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the East China region’s 1 # tin ingot market fluctuated and rose this week (5.26-6.2). On May 26th, the average market price was 199310 yuan/ton, and on June 2nd, the average market price was 209810 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 5.27%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, the price has dropped by 11.35% per month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has been rising for two consecutive weeks.

The futures market fluctuated and rose this week, with a surge of 2.96% on the 29th and another increase of 2.91% on the 30th, laying the foundation for the upward trend of Shanghai Tin this week. The latest statistical data shows that the production of refined tin in May slightly increased compared to April. However, since late May, large-scale smelting enterprises in the southwest region have entered maintenance, and the start of production has significantly decreased. Under the influence of production reduction news, tin prices have led the week’s upward trend. Therefore, the market expects tin production to decline in June. There has been no substantial improvement in demand recently, mainly due to news factors such as the rise of the semiconductor industry and the release of purchasing intentions from some solder companies, which has strengthened market expectations for the future of semiconductors and boosted market sentiment. But from the current market perspective, the actual demand has not been released. Overall, downstream demand is still relatively weak, and it is expected to operate mainly weakly. In the short term, the impact of domestic supply and demand on tin prices remains limited, and in the future, it is still necessary to focus on the impact of domestic and foreign macro factors on the market.

On June 2, 2023, the London Metal Exchange (LME) tin warehouse held 1970 tons, which remained unchanged (in tons)

On June 4th, the base metal index stood at 1166 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 81.62% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were a total of 7 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month on the list of commodity prices in the 22nd week of 2023 (5.29-6.2), with silver (4.34%), praseodymium oxide (4.04%), and tin (3.50%) ranking among the top 3 commodities. There are a total of 8 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with the top 3 products falling respectively being magnesium (-3.98%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (-2.49%), and dysprosium oxide (-2.35%). This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.06%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the asphalt market has been fluctuating and organized. From May 29th to June 2nd, the price of asphalt in Shandong region increased from 3771 yuan/ton to 3784 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35%, a month on month decrease of 0.58%, and a year-on-year decrease of 19.50%. Recently, international crude oil has been operating weakly, coupled with rainfall in various regions, resulting in slightly flat demand and limited support for spot asphalt prices. There are differences in the situation of local refining, and the prices are mixed.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the total weekly production of asphalt is 579000 tons, an increase of 28000 tons compared to the previous month. The supply side is affected by negative factors.

Cost and crude oil: the market is worried about whether the US Congress will pass the US debt ceiling agreement, overlapping the internal differences of oil producing countries OEPC+, and the oil market is under pressure. On June 2nd, the benchmark price of Brent crude oil for Business Society was 72.60 US dollars per barrel, while the benchmark price of WTI crude oil was 68.09 US dollars per barrel. The cost side of the domestic oil industry chain is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt in the market is relatively flat, with varying demand in different regions. Some regions consume early stage resources, while rainfall in some regions leads to a decrease in downstream operating rates and a decrease in asphalt consumption. The overall demand side of the asphalt market is biased towards bearish effects.

As of the close of June 2nd, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2308 was opened at 3645 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 3719 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 3620 yuan/ton. It closed at 3710 yuan/ton, up 92% or 2.54% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 219779 lots, a holding volume of 129854 lots, and a daily increase of -12286 lots.

It is predicted that the supply will continue to rise and the market price will remain stable in the future. Downstream demand is weak and actual demand is weak. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will be mainly weak in the short term.

Domestic cobalt prices fluctuated and fell in May

According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of May 31, the cobalt price was 253100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.20% compared to May 1′s cobalt price of 264200 yuan/ton. The international cobalt price has declined, and the demand is not good. In May, the cobalt market stabilized, and the cobalt price fluctuated and fell.

International cobalt prices have significantly declined

From the trend chart of MB cobalt prices, it can be seen that in May, MB cobalt prices continued to decline, but the decline slowed down, and international cobalt prices fluctuated and fell, which was negative for the domestic cobalt market.

From the LME cobalt price trend chart, it can be seen that in May, LME cobalt prices significantly decreased, while international cobalt prices fell, which was negative for the domestic cobalt market and increased downward pressure on the domestic cobalt market.

Lithium salt prices skyrocketed in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on May 31st, the price of lithium carbonate industrial grade was 290000 yuan/ton, an increase of 66.67% compared to May 1st, which was 174000 yuan/ton; On May 31st, the price of lithium carbonate battery grade was 310000 yuan/ton, an increase of 55% compared to the price of 200000 yuan/ton on May 1st. The price of lithium carbonate has skyrocketed, driving the atmosphere of the downstream lithium hydroxide market. The attitude of the industry towards price has increased, and the prices of enterprises have increased, resulting in a significant increase in lithium hydroxide prices. However, from the trend of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, it can be seen that since late May, the trend of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide has stabilized, and the upward momentum of lithium salts in the future is insufficient.

Lithium cobalt oxide prices surged in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of lithium cobalt oxide significantly increased in May. As of May 31, the price of lithium cobalt oxide was 290000 yuan/ton, an increase of 57500 yuan/ton or 23.93% compared to the price of 234000 yuan/ton on May 1. The price of lithium cobalt oxide has skyrocketed, and the support for the rise of the cobalt industry chain has increased. Metal cobalt has some upward support, but the price increase of lithium cobalt oxide has slowed down in the latter half of the year, and the support for the rise of metal cobalt price has weakened.

Poor demand growth

According to data from the China Passenger Transport Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in April reached 607000 units, a decrease of 1.7% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 115.6%. In April, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the market reached 527000 units, a decrease of 3.6% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 85.6%. In April, the sales of new energy vehicles decreased month on month. As the main force of demand growth in the cobalt market, the sales of new energy vehicles decreased, indicating that the demand growth in the cobalt market in April was less than expected, and the pressure on cobalt prices to decline increased.

According to data from the China Automobile Association, China’s new energy vehicle exports in April reached 100000 units, an increase of 28.6% month on month and 8.4 times year-on-year. According to data from the China Passenger Transport Association, China exported 91000 new energy passenger vehicles in April, an increase of 1028.5% year-on-year and 29.4% month on month. In April, the export of new energy vehicles surged, providing positive support for the new energy vehicle market. There is still hope for future growth of new energy vehicles, and there is still support for the rising demand in the cobalt market in the future.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, in the first quarter, the export of electric vehicles reached 64.75 billion yuan, an increase of 122.3%; The proportion of China’s automobile exports has increased by 5.1%, reaching 43.9%. Driven by multiple factors such as strong demand in foreign electric vehicles and energy storage markets, China’s lithium battery exports in the first quarter reached 109.79 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 94.3%. The surge in exports of electric vehicles and lithium batteries has provided positive support for the domestic cobalt market, but there is still support for the rise of the cobalt market in the future.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, cobalt prices rebounded briefly in May due to the rise in lithium and cobalt salt prices. Additionally, the significant increase in exports of new energy vehicles and lithium batteries has provided significant positive support for the cobalt market, and the downward pressure on the cobalt market has weakened; However, the international cobalt price continues to decline, which is bearish for the domestic cobalt market. In addition, the sales of new energy vehicles in China have decreased, and the demand for cobalt in the market is insufficient. The momentum for cobalt price to continue to rise is insufficient. After a brief rise, cobalt prices quickly decline. As cobalt prices approach the cost line and exports stimulate demand in the cobalt market, the space for cobalt price decline is limited. It is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic butadiene market fell unilaterally in May. From May 1 to 30, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 8851 yuan/ton to 6873 yuan/ton, with a 22.34% drop in the cycle and a 37.15% year-on-year drop in the price.

At the beginning of the month, due to the impact of external market prices and low prices from mainstream domestic suppliers, as Sinopec’s supply prices were lowered twice and some merchants still showed a bearish mentality, the butadiene market situation significantly declined. In mid month, the external market had a relatively abundant supply of goods and the transaction price continued to decline, which significantly dragged down the domestic spot market. At the same time, the main production enterprise Sinopec lowered its quotation by 300 yuan/ton within the week. Some early maintenance enterprises in Northeast China resumed their supply of goods by bidding and entering the market, resulting in abundant supply, causing the butadiene market to continue to decline. In the last ten days of this month, some of the northeast manufacturers’ goods were exported, and the spot resources were supplemented. The price of the external market was lower, while the price of downstream products was lower. The demand was difficult to support the butadiene market, and the market continued to decline.

On the cost side, the international oil market was mixed. In the first ten days of this month, the problem of the US debt ceiling raised investors’ concerns about the economic outlook. In addition, the increase in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits put pressure on the oil market. The increase in the US crude oil inventory depressed the international oil market. In late September, the US debt ceiling negotiation was a good rumor, and the oil market was boosted by the unresolved question of whether OPEC+, an oil producing country, would cut production.

In April, the domestic naphtha market fluctuated at a low level, with weak costs and demand. Terminal restructuring and ethylene demand continued to be weak, with limited market trading and light trading volume. The cost side of butadiene is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, the downstream synthetic rubber market is weak and declining, and there are temporary shutdowns of styrene butadiene rubber plants leading to an increase in butadiene surplus. The synchronous decline of upstream and downstream products affects the industrial chain profits, making it difficult to effectively move down, and it is difficult for the butadiene market to find demand support. The demand for butadiene is weak.

In terms of external trading: On May 29th, the closing price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB South Korea was quoted at $775-785 per ton; China CFR report $825-835 per ton. The external market of butadiene in Europe is closed.

In the future, it is predicted that the international crude oil price will fluctuate at a low level, and the cost side will be negative for the butadiene industry chain. With the restart of some units, domestic production may slightly increase in the next cycle. At the same time, imported cargo will arrive at the port, and the market supply side pressure is more obvious. The trend of downstream products is poor, and it is difficult to find obvious support on the demand side. Both supply and demand are weak. Butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market will continue to decline weakly.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the price of carbon black in the downstream market has also risen recently, driven by the rising price of raw material coal tar. On May 29, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 8666 yuan/ton.

Cost side: recently, the price of coal tar pitch and anthracene oil at the downstream of coal tar market has risen significantly, driving the price of coal tar market up. The rise of raw materials has strong support for the cost side of carbon black, and the price of carbon black market has also risen.

Supply and demand: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels. This week, carbon black market prices rose, and early production stoppages and maintenance enterprises gradually resumed production this week, driving the operating rate of carbon black sample enterprises to increase.

In terms of downstream tire companies and other rubber product industries, the overall operating rate remains stable, finished product inventory is at a reasonable level, and the enthusiasm of enterprises to purchase goods is average. Purchasing is mainly based on hard demand. Recently, the frequency of fluctuations in the carbon black market has been relatively high, and the wait-and-see atmosphere for enterprises is strong, with weak transactions in the carbon black market.

On the whole, the market price of raw material coal tar has risen, and the cost side has some support, but the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and it is mainly wait-and-see. It is comprehensively expected that carbon black will maintain stable operation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 26th, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8850.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56% compared to Monday’s price.

This week, the market for epichlorohydrin was mainly down, with some companies adjusting their prices. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has decreased, the cost support for propylene method has weakened, and the price of glycerol has remained stable and fluctuating. The cost pressure for glycerol method still exists, and the production capacity utilization rate of the supply side industry has increased compared to the previous period. However, the enthusiasm for downstream inquiries in the market is not high, manufacturers are under pressure to ship, and the mentality of operators is insufficient. The focus of negotiations in the epichlorohydrin market has declined.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for propylene on May 25th was 6450.75, a decrease of 8.53% compared to May 1st (7052.60).

Downstream epoxy resin, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of epoxy resin on May 25th was 14100.00, a decrease of 3.64% compared to May 1st (14633.33).

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the current market for propylene as a raw material is weak, with insufficient cost support and sluggish demand, putting pressure on the mindset of the industry. It is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin will be weak in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in supply side devices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 25th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises is 3875.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to Monday’s price.

This week, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market continued its stable trend. The recent weak and stable operation of the raw material sulfuric acid market and the narrow consolidation of the raw material methanol market have little impact on the cost side. Downstream manufacturers mostly purchase on demand, and the overall market trading atmosphere is mild. The focus of negotiations in the formic acid market is stable.

Upstream product: Upstream sulfuric acid. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of sulfuric acid was 188.00 on May 24th, a decrease of 13.89% compared to May 1st (218.33); Upstream methanol, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for methanol on May 24th was 2175.83, a decrease of 10.21% compared to May 1st (2423.33).

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost impact is limited, and market transactions just need to be orderly. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may remain stable in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.