According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride by o-phthalic acid dropped slightly this week. By the end of the weekend, the quotation of phthalic anhydride by o-phthalic acid was 7962.5 yuan/ton, 1.85% lower than the price of 8112.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 1.09% lower than the same period last year.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

Recently, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants has been stable, and the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has been operating steadily. Currently, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China is around 60%, and the supply of goods is normal. The delivery situation of phthalic anhydride is average, and the market situation of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined.

Cost end: price trend of o-benzene market declines

This week, the price trend of domestic ortho benzene declined. By the end of the week, the price of ortho benzene was 8300 yuan/ton, down 2.35% from the price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The supply of ortho benzene was normal, and the operation of on-site devices was stable. This week, the price of crude oil fell slightly, the pressure on the decline of ortho xylene cost increased, the demand for ortho xylene was weak, and the price of ortho xylene in the external market fell. The decline of ortho benzene price had a negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market, and the price of phthalic anhydride market fell slightly.

On the demand side: DOP market trend is declining, with on-demand procurement being the main focus

The price trend of downstream DOP market is declining. This week, the price is down 6.89%. At present, the domestic DOP price is 10009 yuan/ton. The domestic DOP enterprises are starting steadily. The demand for phthalic anhydride is mainly based on demand. The mainstream price of DOP is 10000-10100 yuan/ton. The main reason for the sharp decline of DOP price is the fall in the price of raw material isooctanol. On the whole, the demand of plasticizer industry is poor. Affected by this, the price of phthalic anhydride market declines slightly.

In the future, the price trend of o-xylene has declined slightly in the short term, but the demand of downstream plasticizer industry has not improved significantly. The supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the effect is general. It is expected that the price trend of o-phthalic anhydride market in the later period will be mainly volatile.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11133 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the weekend was 11166 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.30%.

Most domestic activated carbon manufacturers’ quotations are stable, with some rising. The factory price of activated carbon for water purification in East China Coconut Shell ranges from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton, and the market inquiry atmosphere is active. Downstream markets maintain just in demand for purchases, with a focus on market transactions.

Activated carbon has a rich source of raw materials, including coal, sawdust, fruit shells, straw, etc. Through a series of processes, activated carbon suitable for water treatment is prepared. At the same time, activated carbon manufacturers are constantly improving the performance of activated carbon, increasing its working capacity, and effectively adsorbing and purifying wastewater.

Prediction: Most of the activated carbon market is sold according to orders, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price trend of the domestic ammonium nitrate market was temporarily stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4340 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 4340 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 5.65% year on year.

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market was temporarily stable, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the site was sufficient, the goods on the site were generally shipped, the manufacturer’s inventory was not high, the price trend of terminal upstream liquid ammonia declined slightly, the price of nitric acid declined slightly, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has been normal, and downstream purchases are on demand. Recently, downstream demand for nitro compound fertilizers has been normal, while domestic procurement in the downstream civilian explosive industry is average. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have not started production high, and the price of ammonium nitrate has been stable recently. As of now, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are 5300-5400 yuan/ton, Shandong region is 4500-4600 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is 4600-4700 yuan/ton.

The price of concentrated nitric acid in China has slightly declined this week, with an average price of 2433.33 yuan/ton as of the 6th, a decrease of 0.68% compared to the price of 2450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer prices ranging from 2400 to 2600 yuan/ton, while northern and central China offer prices ranging from 2200 to 2400 yuan/ton. At present, the pressure on the supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market is not decreasing, demand continues to be weak, and costs are declining. The supply of the concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the market mainly relies on orders. The market volume is average, and industry insiders are mostly wait-and-see. The on-site price of nitric acid has slightly decreased, and the market situation of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia is temporarily stable this week, with liquid ammonia prices reaching 3233.33 yuan/ton as of the weekend, which is unchanged from the price of 3233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. In April, the supply performance was abundant, and manufacturers’ accumulated inventory guided them to continuously lower their factory prices. In April, manufacturers’ quotations significantly declined, and there has been little change in domestic ammonia release recently. However, supply pressure still exists, and liquid ammonia prices remain weak. The low price of upstream liquid ammonia has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is general, the price of liquid ammonia market fluctuates, the price of nitric acid drops slightly, and the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is normal. Ammonium nitrate analysts from the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate in the later period may stabilize temporarily.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the overall price of toluene has shown a trend of rising and then falling this month. On April 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 7080 yuan/ton, and on April 28th, it was 7450 yuan/ton, an increase of 370 yuan/ton or 5.23% compared to the beginning of the month.

In terms of crude oil, on April 2nd, OPEC+member countries suddenly announced a collective reduction in oil production. On the 6th, OPEC+member countries, mainly Saudi Arabia, and Russia announced that they would further reduce production. Starting from May, OPEC+will further reduce production by about 1.15 million barrels per day compared to April; Many countries have announced the implementation of voluntary oil production cuts, and global crude oil demand remains growing. The possibility of a significant drop in oil prices is low, and oil prices may fluctuate among the main players; The additional reduction in OPEC+production will exacerbate the oil supply shortage in the second half of 2023, and the situation of crude oil supply exceeding demand is approaching.

In terms of economy, in the second half of the month, US economic data showed that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again. The Fed’s rate hike is nearing its end, and the US economy is inevitably entering a recession. The rise of the US dollar and investors’ concerns about the economic outlook have led to pressure on oil prices; There is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates. US anti inflation concerns have increased expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in May, leading to a strengthening of the US dollar and rising market concerns, putting pressure on oil prices.

The crude oil price fluctuated and showed an inverted “V” trend in April. On April 28th, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil in the trading company was 74.30 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -0.09% compared to the beginning of this month (74.37 US dollars per barrel); The benchmark price of Brent crude oil is 77.72 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -1.12% compared to the beginning of this month (78.60 US dollars per barrel).

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI has increased significantly this month. On April 1st, the price was 17700 yuan/ton, and on April 28th, the price rose to 19500 yuan/ton. Within the month, the price increased by 1800 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 10.17%. The fundamentals of the domestic TDI market remain positive this month, with high levels remaining stable. The supply side news is quiet, and TDI spot performance is tight. Traders have reported strong high levels, with businesses mainly on the sidelines.

On the downstream side, domestic PX prices rose slightly in the early stages of this month, remained stable in the middle, and fell at the end of the month. On April 1st, the price was 8800 yuan/ton, and on April 28th, the price rose to 9000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.27%. In the short term, the downstream market support for px gradually weakens, and the market lacks support.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices have fluctuated and fluctuated this month. At the beginning of the month, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8412.6 yuan/ton. On April 28th, the price was 8648.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 236 yuan/ton or 2.81% compared to the beginning of the month. The domestic refined oil market still lacks demand support, the market trading atmosphere is light, and the sales pressure of main units at the end of the month is high, resulting in a downward pressure on domestic gasoline prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In terms of crude oil, there is uncertainty in the outlook for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, with the strengthening of the US dollar and an increase in market risk aversion. Optimistic Chinese economic data and a positive outlook for energy demand provide support for oil prices, waiting for new guidance in May; As the weather warms up and the May Day holiday approaches, people’s willingness to travel and activity radius increase, and gasoline demand gradually increases. However, downstream demand for fine chemicals is weak, providing limited price support, and gasoline demand is unstable. It is expected that participants in the refined oil market will operate cautiously after the holiday. Affected by fundamentals, it is expected that the price of toluene will first decline and then rise next month. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and gasoline, the dynamics of toluene units, and the impact of downstream demand on prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic cyclohexanone market fluctuated within a narrow range in April. From April 1st to 27th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market increased from 9460 yuan/ton to 95100 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.53%, with a maximum amplitude of 0.95%, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.09% in price.

At the beginning of the month, crude oil significantly increased, and the raw material pure benzene market followed a strong upward trend, with cost support upward. Downstream chemical fibers follow up on demand, and the supply of market commodities is relatively low, resulting in an increase in the focus of cyclohexanone transactions. In mid month, the pure benzene market fluctuated and operated, with stable cost support. Downstream demand is weak, high market prices hinder shipments, transaction focus weakens, and the cyclohexanone market is in a weak state of consolidation and operation. In the latter half of the month, pure benzene, the raw material, was operating in a volatile manner, with positive cost support. There are more downstream caprolactam overhauls, the market price is reduced, and the transaction focus is higher.

On the cost side, the domestic pure benzene market in April saw a gradual upward trend. On April 27th, the benchmark price of pure benzene at Shangshang Society was 7442.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.76% compared to the beginning of this month (7242.17 yuan/ton). The price of domestic pure benzene market rose significantly, the price of international crude oil rose significantly, the listed price of main units rose, and the domestic supply of pure benzene remained low. The downstream demand of the pure benzene industry chain continues to recover, with sufficient support for the price of pure benzene. The supply and demand side of pure benzene is good, and prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall. The cost side of cyclohexanone shows significant benefits.

On the supply side, the operating rate of cyclohexanone industry units remains around 60%, with a slight decrease in supply. Main production enterprises conduct parking and maintenance. The short-term supply of cyclohexanone is slightly positive.

On the demand side, on April 27, the benchmark price of caprolactam in the business community was 12933.33 yuan/ton, up 6.89% compared with 12100.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. Recently, caprolactam has been overhauled a lot and the spot supply is relatively tight. However, with the price of cyclohexanone rising, there may be some resistance to the high price transaction. However, before the May Day holiday, the overall downstream demand may be good. The demand side of cyclohexanone is favorable and has a positive impact.

Future market forecast shows that pure benzene is operating in a volatile manner with stable cost support. Cyclohexanone manufacturers have relatively low product volume and circulation, but their demand remains average for a short period of time. Cyclohexanone analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

The dichloromethane market fluctuated narrowly in April. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 26th, the price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2590 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.68% from 2572 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The low point for the month was 2512 yuan/ton, and the high point was 2672 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol has slightly decreased, while the cost support for dichloromethane is weak; The supply side pressure continues to fluctuate slightly during the start of dichloromethane production; The downstream refrigerant R 32 has a strong high price, but after the initial replenishment in April, the purchase of dichloromethane was mainly based on demand and small orders, and the support on the demand side weakened compared to March; The dichloromethane market fluctuated slightly.

In April, there was a slight fluctuation in the start of dichloromethane production, and overall supply pressure was high.

In April, the price of raw material methanol narrowed and stabilized, while the cost support for dichloromethane was weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 26th, the spot price of methanol was 2491 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.73% from the beginning of the month’s 2561 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the high point was 2571 yuan/ton, and the low point was 2401 yuan/ton.

The market price of refrigerant R 32 is firm. After the centralized replenishment of dichloromethane in the early stage, the purchase of dichloromethane is less than that in the early stage. The market transaction is dominated by small orders, and the support for dichloromethane is weak.

Future Market Forecast: Analysts believe that the cost support for dichloromethane is weak, coupled with significant supply pressure, and it is expected that the dichloromethane market will continue to consolidate weakly in the future

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, after April, the demand for terminal printing and paper industries was poor, and the hydrogen peroxide market fell weakly, oscillating for nearly a month. On April 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 876 yuan/ton. On April 25th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 766 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.55%.

Bearish pressure on the oscillation and decline of hydrogen peroxide market in April

Starting from April, the demand in the terminal paper printing industry has weakened, and the quantity of hydrogen peroxide purchased has decreased. The transaction in the hydrogen peroxide market is average. In addition, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have reopened their devices, increasing the supply of hydrogen peroxide. The market has gradually declined, and prices have continued to decline slightly, with a drop of nearly 2%.

In the middle of the year, bearish factors remained, demand remained poor, and the hydrogen peroxide market continued to expand its decline. From 840 yuan/ton, it fell below 800 yuan/ton, a decrease of nearly 10%.

At the end of the month, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers lacked confidence in pricing and continued to make minor adjustments. As of the 25th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide had dropped to the first line of 760 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of over 12%.

Li Bing, a chemical analyst at Business Society, believes that terminal demand is poor and bearish, with hydrogen peroxide market still weakening after May Day.

This week (4.17-4.24), the nitrile rubber market slightly rose. According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of April 24th, the price of nitrile rubber was 15800 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% from last Monday’s 15775 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene rebounded, while the price of acrylonitrile slightly decreased, and the overall cost of nitrile rubber strengthened; Downstream demand is weak, and market transactions are still relatively flat. Buna-N rubber merchants are less willing to offer at a low price. In addition, the factory price of Buna-N rubber enterprises has temporarily stabilized recently, and the price of Buna-N market has rebounded slightly. At present, the mainstream market price for Lanhua Nitrile 3305 in East China is 15400-15600 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of Nandi Nitrile 1052 is 17400~17600 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of Sibul nitrile 3365 is 14400~14600 yuan/ton; Shunze nitrile 3355 mainstream reported at 15200~15400 yuan/ton.

This week (4.17-4.24), the price of raw material butadiene rebounded, while the price of acrylonitrile slightly decreased, and the overall cost of nitrile rubber strengthened. According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of April 24th, the price of butadiene was 8784 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.77% from last Monday’s 8384 yuan/ton; As of April 24th, the price of acrylonitrile decreased by 0.52% from last Monday’s 9575 yuan/ton at 9525 yuan/ton.

At present, the supply of nitrile rubber is basically stable. But there are maintenance plans for devices such as Lanhua in the later part of the second quarter.

Downstream rubber hose, automotive parts and other rubber product industries mainly have small inquiries and small transactions in the market.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that the current supply of nitrile rubber is loose, coupled with the insignificant increase in downstream inquiries, the nitrile rubber industry chain is currently in a weak situation; In the later stage, nitrile rubber enterprises have maintenance plans in the second quarter, and with the current rebound in raw material prices and gradually supporting cost, the demand for nitrile rubber may be favorable in the later stage. It is expected that the nitrile rubber market will be weak and consolidation in the short term, and the price of nitrile rubber in the second quarter may rise slightly in the medium to long term.

This week, the lead market (4.14-4.21) rose first and then fell. The average price in the domestic market was 15230 yuan/ton over the weekend and 15275 yuan/ton over the weekend, up 0.3%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. Since the market entered September, the expectations of downstream battery companies have increased during the peak season, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the peak season ended, prices continued to weaken, and prices fluctuated after the holiday.

In the futures market, lead prices rose first and then fell this week. After the completion of delivery of the Shanghai Lead 2304 contract this week, the inventory of the previous exchange was significantly reduced by 12102 tons. The low inventory drove the Shanghai Lead higher, reaching a maximum of nearly 15500 yuan/ton. However, due to the drag of the off-season of fundamentals, the Shanghai lead has significant upward resistance and fell back on Friday. Fundamentally speaking, the upstream and downstream of lead are still in a seasonal off-season, with relatively light market trading and average actual transaction performance. As the weather warms up, downstream storage companies still have expectations of further lowering their operating rates, resulting in weaker market expectations for the future. In the future market, the main trend remains weak and volatile, with limited market volatility in the off-season under the dual weak supply and demand pattern.

On April 21, 2023, London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory decreased by 50 tons from 32200 tons

On April 22, the base metal index stood at 1245 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 22.96% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 93.93% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 15th week of 2023 (4.10-4.14), there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices. Among them, there was 1 commodity that increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were magnesium (25.38%), silver (4.82%), and nickel (4.53%). There are a total of 11 products with a month on month decrease, and 5 products with a decrease of over 5%, accounting for 21.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products in the decline were neodymium oxide (-8.26%), praseodymium oxide (-7.48%), and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-6.00%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.27%.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong Province dropped from 9228.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9142.86 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.93%. Weekend prices have decreased by 24.85% year-on-year compared to the same period last year. On April 16th, the isooctanol commodity index was 67.23, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 51.11% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 91.27% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support increases, downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the market quotations of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong Province have slightly decreased this week: Lihuayi isooctanol had a weekend market price of 9100 yuan/ton, and compared to the beginning of the week, the quotations were temporarily stable; The weekend market price of isooctanol of Hualu Hengsheng was 9100 yuan/ton, which was 200 yuan/ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; The weekend quotation for Luxi isooctanol distributed by Shandong Jinsheng Run was 9200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to normal.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 7156.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7286.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.82%. Weekend prices have decreased by 13.68% compared to the same period last year. The price of upstream raw materials market rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP has slightly decreased this week. The price of DOP dropped from 9950.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9934.17 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.16%. Weekend prices have decreased by 16.08% compared to the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened.

Future prospects

In late April, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream propylene market slightly increased, with increased cost support. However, the downstream DOP market has slightly declined, and downstream demand is weak. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may experience minor fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.