In the first half of 2023, the market price of hydrofluoric acid significantly decreased. At the beginning of the year, the price was 12500 yuan/ton, and at the middle of the year, the price was 9657.14 yuan/ton. The decline in the first half of the year was 22.74%. In the first half of the year, the market price of hydrofluoric acid decreased more or less, and from March to April, the price of hydrofluoric acid increased, while prices in other months decreased to varying degrees.

The trend of the hydrofluoric acid market in the first half of the year is mainly divided into three stages: the rapid decline in domestic hydrofluoric acid prices from January to February, the slight recovery in the hydrofluoric acid market from March to April, and the further decline in hydrofluoric acid prices from May to June:

The domestic price of hydrofluoric acid rapidly declined from January to February. At this stage, the price of hydrofluoric acid has dropped from 12500 yuan/ton to 9828.57 yuan/ton, with a decrease of up to 21.37%. The main influencing factor is the sharp supply-demand contradiction. At this stage, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is very sufficient, even if some units in the north stop, the demand for downstream refrigerants is very low due to the holiday around the Spring Festival, resulting in poor delivery of hydrofluoric acid, frequent inventory accumulation by manufacturers, and a significant decrease in hydrofluoric acid prices. On the other hand, the price trend of raw material fluorite at this stage has declined, and the cost support has declined, which is also a major bearish factor in the hydrofluoric acid market. In addition, the refrigerant industry is sluggish, procurement demand is poor, and multiple bearish factors are combined, resulting in a significant decline in the hydrofluoric acid market from January to February.

The hydrofluoric acid market slightly rebounded from March to April. At this stage, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market has slightly increased, with prices rising from 9828.57 yuan/ton to 10357.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.38%. On the one hand, the rise in raw material fluorite prices is driving the situation. At this stage, due to environmental requirements and mining accidents, the domestic spot supply of fluorite is very tight, and the price trend of fluorite is rising. On the other hand, the refrigerant market is on the rise. March April is the peak period for the refrigerant industry to stock up, and the demand for upstream hydrofluoric acid procurement has increased. Affected by the positive support from upstream and downstream, the hydrofluoric acid market has rebounded.

The price of hydrofluoric acid fell again from May to June. Due to weaker demand, the price of hydrofluoric acid has declined again, with the market price dropping from 10357.14 yuan/ton to 9657.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.76%. At this stage, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is still sufficient, and manufacturers’ orders for hydrofluoric acid are weak. However, the price of raw fluorite is at a high level, and the downstream refrigerant season is not strong. The demand for hydrofluoric acid is not good, resulting in severe losses for hydrofluoric acid production enterprises. Some enterprises choose to stop and respond due to the impact of losses. Anhydrous hydrofluoric acid starts at around 60%, and some enterprises have increased inventory. Negative factors have affected the decline of the hydrofluoric acid market.

From the perspective of the fluorine chemical industry chain, due to safety, environmental protection and other reasons, upstream mining of fluorite is still tight, and backward mines will continue to be phased out. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises, which supports the fluorite market price, and the decrease in fluorite is relatively small. However, as the industry with the largest proportion of downstream applications in the fluorine chemical industry, refrigerant market prices have been sluggish. In the first half of the year, there was a rapid drop in production during the peak season, which caused many concerns and concerns in the market. Under the combined influence of high raw materials and poor demand, hydrofluoric acid enterprises have been struggling to survive, and most of them have suffered losses.

In the short term, the market for raw material fluorite has slightly declined, and with the end of the peak season in the downstream refrigerant industry, refrigerant production has shown a downward trend. Regarding the decrease in hydrofluoric acid procurement, high inventory of hydrofluoric acid, resonance between high raw material demand and poor demand, Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at Business Society, believes that the recovery of the hydrofluoric acid market is hopeless in the short term. As the weather cools down in the fourth quarter, the price of raw material fluorite will increase, and cost support will be more obvious at that time, The hydrofluoric acid market may experience an increase in the fourth quarter.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in early July, the mainstream market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China slightly fluctuated and decreased. On the first day, the market reported around 14371 yuan/ton, and on the 10th, it reported around 14285 yuan/ton, a decrease of only 0.6%. Recently, the price of acrylic acid has increased, and some enterprises of polyacrylamide have seen some price increases. Based on the overall market supply situation, some enterprises have reduced their production capacity due to the impact of high temperatures. However, the current market supply is sufficient, mainly due to average downstream demand and weak supply and demand, and the mainstream market continues to be weak.

As shown in the figure, in the early third quarter of 2023, China’s polyacrylamide market remained stable with a slight decline, which was amplified compared to the decline in June.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of acrylonitrile in early July increased slightly by 2.38% from 7887 yuan/ton to 8075 yuan/ton. After a slight increase in the raw material propylene market, it slightly declined, and downstream consumers showed resistance to high market prices. In order to stimulate sales, market prices shifted from rising to falling, which weakened their support for the cost of acrylonitrile; Multiple downstream industries of acrylonitrile face weak demand support in the short term, which is difficult to improve; In addition, the supply side is still relatively loose, and the acrylonitrile market is mainly volatile and consolidation in the short term.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the acrylic acid market slightly increased in early July, from 6012 yuan/ton to 6175 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.7%. Recently, the market price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased, and the cost support has weakened. With the support of some equipment maintenance and supply constraints, acrylic acid companies have steadily increased their quotations, and downstream inquiries have increased their enthusiasm. However, the purchasing mentality is still cautious, and the main focus is on following up in an appropriate amount. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will undergo mild consolidation and operation in the short term, and more market news guidance is needed.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas market rose first and then slightly in early July. Among them, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China on the 1st was 4296 yuan/ton, and on the 10th it was 4066 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.35% in ten days.

Future forecast: There will be a slight increase in raw material prices in the near future, while the fuel market is relatively weak, and the cost of polyacrylamide raw materials will rise to a certain extent. However, due to the abundant supply of goods in the market and the continued low prosperity of the water treatment industry, downstream demand is poor, resulting in poor market transactions; High temperatures have a certain impact on factory operations, but with production and inventory, market supply is normal. Regarding the future market, analysis suggests that polyacrylamide will continue its stable or slightly fluctuating trend.

Aluminium fluoride prices fell this week

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 10, the quotation of Aluminium fluoride in China was 9825 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the price of Aluminium fluoride of 9900 yuan/ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of raw materials fell in shock, and the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell. In July, the price of Aluminium fluoride fell in shock.

The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 10th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9585.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74% compared to the price of 9657.14 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month. In July, the price of hydrofluoric acid fell in shock, the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell, and the downward pressure on Aluminium fluoride increased.

Fluctuation and decline in fluorite prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 10th, the price of fluorite was 3062.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.76% compared to July 1st, which was 3117.50 yuan/ton. In July, the price of fluorite fluctuated and fell, the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell, and the downward pressure on Aluminium fluoride increased.

Market Overview and Forecast

The analysts of Aluminium fluoride industry from the business agency believe that: in July, the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite fell in shock, the cost of Aluminium fluoride raw materials fell, and the downward pressure on Aluminium fluoride increased. In the future, the cost will fall, and the downward pressure of Aluminium fluoride will increase. It is expected that the price of Aluminium fluoride will fall in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China will rise from June 30 to July 7, 2022. Last weekend, it was 6100 yuan/ton, and this weekend, it was 6243 yuan/ton, up 2.35%.

In terms of crude oil: WTI crude oil has shown an overall upward trend during this cycle. Against the backdrop of interest rate hikes, economic concerns still exist, but the deepening of production cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia continues to provide support, and international oil prices fluctuate. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 08 increased by 0.01 USD/barrel or 0.01% to 71.80 USD/barrel; ICE oil futures contract 09 dropped by $0.13 per barrel, or 0.17%, at $76.52 per barrel. The main contract for China INE crude oil futures, 2308, rose 4.5 yuan to 558.2 yuan/barrel, and fell 0.7 yuan to 557.5 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 100 yuan/ton on July 7, 2023, and is currently at 6300 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 6350 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6200 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6303 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6300 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6200 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On July 3rd, the price of pure benzene was 6203 yuan/ton, and on Friday (July 7th), the price of pure benzene was 6260 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.34% compared to last week and a decrease of 32.56% compared to the same period last year

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a slight increase after ten consecutive weeks of decline.

In terms of industrial chain: During this cycle, crude oil and styrene have overall risen, boosting the mindset of the industrial chain. The pure benzene market has slightly increased, with Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene increasing to 6300 yuan/ton. The factory price of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has generally risen to 6200-6250 yuan/ton this week.

Driven by the upward trend of the industrial chain, the overall price of the hydrogenation benzene market rose this week. The ex factory price in Hebei rose to 6200-6250 yuan/ton, and the market price in East China rose to 6350-6450 yuan/ton. On the supply side, as the market improved during the week, some units resumed operation in the early stage, and the operating rate slightly increased during the week. There has been little change in demand, and downstream enterprises have both started and stopped. Overall, the strengthening of crude oil and styrene has driven the market mentality of the industrial chain, and the overall strength of the industrial chain this week. In the future, there is still an upward expectation for crude oil, and there is still support for the industrial chain. It is expected that the market will remain stable with a strong trend and there is room for a slight increase.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On June 25th, the price of pure benzene was 6187 yuan/ton, and on Friday (June 30th), the price of pure benzene was 6177 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37% from last week and 35.14% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene stabilized at 6200 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions are synchronized)

Downstream aspect

3、 Future Market Forecast

Crude oil rebounded to support, and it is expected that pure benzene will open for consolidation this morning.

Although further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve may curb economic growth, the peak summer fuel consumption in the United States has arrived and international oil prices have risen. NYMEX crude oil futures 08 contract increased by $0.30 per barrel or 0.43% to $69.860 per barrel; ICE oil futures contract 08 rose by 0.31 US dollars per barrel or 0.42% to 74.340 US dollars per barrel. The main contract for China INE crude oil futures, 2308, rose 2.5 yuan to 538.5 yuan/barrel, and rose 6.4 yuan to 544.9 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

Core logic: Yesterday, East China pure benzene reached 6040-6100 yuan/ton, with styrene market prices rebounding and pure benzene spot prices following the trend, resulting in average demand. The mentality of picking up goods on the Shandong market has improved, and the transaction is better at 6060-6130 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of mixed xylene showed a “V” shaped trend this month. On June 1st, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7470 yuan/ton, while on June 30th, the price was 7340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74% compared to the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis and Review

In terms of crude oil, in the first half of the year, the United States House of Representatives passed the bill related to the Debt limit of the United States, and several officials of the Federal Reserve hinted that interest rate hikes would be suspended in June. Investors’ concerns about the economic outlook declined; There have been disagreements within OPEC+regarding the need for further production cuts. In addition to Saudi Arabia’s announcement of an additional 1 million barrels per day reduction in July, which is beneficial for oil prices, countries such as Russia, Iran, and Brazil have higher exports, which weakens the effectiveness of OPEC’s production cuts; The IEA predicts that oil supply will continue to be tight next year, especially in the second half of 2024.

In the second half of the year, the Federal Reserve suspended interest rate hikes in June, which met expectations. There is still a possibility of interest rate hikes in July, and market risks remain; China and India in the Asian region have driven oil demand growth of over 2 million barrels per day, easing concerns about economic recession in Europe and America; On the 24th, the “24-hour mutiny” by Russian mercenary Wagner sparked global attention, and the Wagner incident intensified concerns in the international crude oil market about the stability of Russian oil exports; Following the Wagner incident, the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensified; On the evening of the 28th, EIA commercial crude oil inventory significantly decreased, with a decrease of 9.6 million barrels, exceeding market expectations. US crude oil exports increased significantly, boosting international oil prices.

The crude oil price fluctuated and fluctuated in June. On June 30th, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil by the trading company was 69.56 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.14% compared to the beginning of this month (69.46 US dollars per barrel); The benchmark price of Brent crude oil is 74.24 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.72% compared to the beginning of this month (73.71 US dollars per barrel).

Downstream, the overall domestic PX price remained stable this month, with a slight increase at the end of the month. On June 1st, the benchmark price of PX was 8200 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, the price was 8250 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.61%. The supply of PX was normal in June, and the demand for oil transfer in Europe and America has rebounded since June. The price of raw material MX has been strong, boosting market sentiment. The operating rate of domestic PX is over 70%, but there is little change in spot supply during the maintenance of some PX devices, and PX prices have slightly increased.

In terms of OX, the price of OX has remained stable this month, with a price of 8100 yuan/ton as of June 1st and 8100 yuan/ton as of June 30th, showing no change compared to the beginning of the month. The downstream phthalic anhydride market of OX is stabilizing, while the downstream plasticizer market is declining. Demand is mainly in demand, and the overall upward momentum of the adjacent benzene market is weakening. There is still downward pressure, and the adjacent benzene market will temporarily stabilize in the future.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices have fluctuated this month. On June 1st, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8409.0/ton, and on June 30th, the price was 8468.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 59.6 yuan/ton or 0.71% compared to the beginning of the month. The use of oil for car air conditioners in summer has increased, and during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the radius and frequency of private car travel have increased, leading to an increase in gasoline market demand and an increase in oil prices; Operators maintain a cautious attitude towards replenishment, and market transactions are just in need

O-Xylene price stabilized temporarily in June

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 29, the price of O-Xylene was 8100 yuan/ton, which was more stable than the price of 8100 yuan/ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of mixed xylene was weak and consolidated. The downstream market of phthalic anhydride fell first and then rose. The upstream and downstream markets of ortho benzene fell in shock. The market of ortho benzene industry chain was weak. The price of O-Xylene was weak and stable in June.

The raw material mixed xylene market fluctuated and fell in June

According to the market analysis system of mixed xylene products in the Business Society, as of June 29th, the price of mixed xylene was 7340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21% compared to the price of mixed xylene on June 1st, which was 7430 yuan/ton. In June, the price of mixed xylene fell first, then rose and then fell. The mixed xylene market fluctuated and fell, and the cost of raw materials fell. In June, the O-Xylene market fell under great pressure. However, mixed xylene rebounded and rose in late June, and the downward pressure of O-Xylene in the future market weakened.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market fluctuates and falls

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products in the Business Society, as of June 29, the price of phthalic anhydride was 7700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.22% compared to the price of 7875 yuan/ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month. In June, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, resulting in weak demand for ortho benzene and increased downward pressure on ortho benzene; In late June, the price of phthalic anhydride rebounded and rose, the demand for ortho benzene was expected to recover, and the downward pressure on O-Xylene market weakened.

Future prospects

Analysts of O-Xylene data from the business community believe that in June, the prices of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride fell in shock, and the downward pressure on O-Xylene was large. However, in late June, the prices of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride rebounded and adjusted, the upstream and downstream market of O-Xylene recovered, and the downward pressure on O-Xylene weakened. Overall, there is significant downward pressure on ortho benzene. With the rebound of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride prices, the support for the rise of the ortho benzene industry chain is increasing. It is expected that ortho benzene prices will stabilize strongly in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong fell first and then rose in June. The price of isooctanol first fell from 9120.00 yuan/ton on June 1 to 8660.00 yuan/ton on June 12, a decrease of 5.04%, and then rose to 9466.67 yuan/ton on June 28, an increase of 9.31%. In June, the overall market price of isooctanol in Shandong increased by 3.80%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 1.07% year-on-year.

On June 27th, the isooctanol commodity index was 70.10, an increase of 0.98 points from yesterday, a decrease of 49.02% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 99.43% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell first and then rose this month, with average inventory levels.

Cost side: Propylene market falls first and then rises

In June, the factory price of propylene first fell and then rose, dropping from 6460.75 yuan/ton on June 1 to 6155.75 yuan/ton on June 13, a decrease of 4.72%. Later, it rose to 6513.25 yuan/ton on June 28, an increase of 5.81%. Overall, the price of propylene increased by 0.81% in June, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.83% at the end of the month. The rising cost support is good, which has a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

On the demand side: DOP market falls first and then rises

The DOP market price fell first and then rose in June. The price first fell from 9684.17 yuan/ton on June 1st to 9258.33 yuan/ton on June 10th, a decrease of 4.40%, and then rose to 9825.83 yuan/ton on June 24th, an increase of 6.13%. At the end of the month, there was a slight decline again. Overall, the DOP market fell by 0.69% in June. The price at the end of the month decreased by 2.61% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early July, the domestic isooctanol market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline, with consolidation being the main trend. Upstream propylene prices have stabilized at high levels, with average cost support. Downstream DOP prices have shown a downward trend, and downstream manufacturers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, under the influence of various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, the domestic isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, in early June, the average factory tax inclusive price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 8180.00 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the average factory tax inclusive price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7780.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.89%. The current price has decreased by 23.16% compared to last year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate fell in June. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has been declining for three consecutive months recently. The overall market of raw material Potassium chloride is volatile and low, and the cost support is poor. The downstream market is just in need of procurement. Potassium carbonate manufacturers have a bearish mentality and the market is declining. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate is around 7300-7800 yuan/ton recently (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the overall market of Potassium chloride in June was in a volatile downward trend. Recently, the international market demand for Potassium chloride is insufficient, and the price shows a downward trend. The domestic Spot market of Potassium chloride was in general trading, and the price of Potassium chloride fell slightly in shock. The market of Potassium chloride is expected to consolidate at a low level in the future.

At present, the overall supply of imported potassium is sufficient, with poor cost support. Downstream purchasing is cautious, and it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term. The long-term market still needs to wait and see.

In June, the market of Polybutadiene was weak and consolidated. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 26, the market price of Polybutadiene in East China was 10330 yuan/ton, down 0.86% slightly from 10420 at the beginning of the month, and the peak in the cycle was 10470 yuan/ton. The price of raw butadiene fell sharply, and the cost of Polybutadiene fell sharply; In June, the construction of downstream tire factories declined slightly, and Polybutadiene just needed support, but it was weaker than in the early stage; In June, the ex factory price of two barrels of oil Polybutadiene has remained stable since it was reduced by 300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of June 26, the ex factory price of Daqing cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company was 9900 yuan/ton, and the domestic offer range of Polybutadiene was 9700 yuan/ton to 10500 yuan/ton.

Supply side: In June, the Shunding device restarted and stopped simultaneously, with overall construction slightly higher than in the early stage; In early June, a total of 220000 tons/year units from Yanshan Petrochemical and Shandong Yihua were restarted and put into normal operation; In addition, the 160000 t/a Polybutadiene plant of Daqing Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance since June 10.

Cost: In June, the price of butadiene fell sharply, and the cost of Polybutadiene fell sharply. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 26th, the price of butadiene was 5873 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.17% from 6612 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The natural rubber market rose slightly in June, slightly supporting Polybutadiene. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 26th, the price was 11850 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.16% from 11600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: The tire operating rate slightly decreased in June, which has a strong demand for rubber support but has weakened compared to the previous period. It is understood that as of late May 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 5.9%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 70%.

Future market forecast: business community analysts believe that the price of raw materials has declined significantly, the supply side is still under pressure, and the downstream construction has declined slightly. The Polybutadiene rubber industry chain showed a weak performance in June. It is expected that the Polybutadiene market will continue its weak consolidation trend in the short term.